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The situation of the dairy sector in the EU Bence Tóth, European Commission The situation of the dairy sector in the EU Bence Tóth, European Commission

DG AGRI, unit L 2 Economic analysis of EU agriculture § Commodity market analysis: DG AGRI, unit L 2 Economic analysis of EU agriculture § Commodity market analysis: short-term and medium-term projections (including biofuels, GMOs) § Policy and impact analysis (CAP reform, enlargement) § Socio-economic analysis: – development of agricultural income – farm structure § Rural development analysis: – rural development outlook § Cooperation with the academic world, DG JRC and the OECD § Statistical coordination with Eurostat ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 2

Situation of August 2007 Source: http: //www. nytimes. com/2007/08/31/business/worldbusiness/31 iht-wbmilk. 4. 7338847. html ABER-BVLE Situation of August 2007 Source: http: //www. nytimes. com/2007/08/31/business/worldbusiness/31 iht-wbmilk. 4. 7338847. html ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 3

Sitiuation of September 2009 Source: http: //www. europeanmilkboard. org/gallery. html ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Sitiuation of September 2009 Source: http: //www. europeanmilkboard. org/gallery. html ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 4

Milk price paid to producers since 1977 ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 Milk price paid to producers since 1977 ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 5

Milk price paid to producers ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 Milk price paid to producers ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 6

Milk price paid to producers (EU 15 and EU 10) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Milk price paid to producers (EU 15 and EU 10) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 7

Milk price paid to producers (July 2008 and 2009) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Milk price paid to producers (July 2008 and 2009) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 8

Milk delivered to dairies ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 9 Milk delivered to dairies ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 9

Dairy commodities output: comparison of Jan-Jun 2009 and Jan-Jun 2008 ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Dairy commodities output: comparison of Jan-Jun 2009 and Jan-Jun 2008 ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 10

Cheese production ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 11 Cheese production ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 11

Cheese exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 12 Cheese exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 12

Cheese price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 13 Cheese price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 13

WMP production and price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 14 WMP production and price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 14

WMP exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 15 WMP exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 15

Butter production and price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 16 Butter production and price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 16

Butter exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 17 Butter exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 17

SMP production and price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 18 SMP production and price ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 18

SMP exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 19 SMP exports ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 19

Intervention stocks since 1992 ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 20 Intervention stocks since 1992 ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 20

The protein surplus Factors behind the higher increase in SMP production and intervention stocks The protein surplus Factors behind the higher increase in SMP production and intervention stocks relative to butter

Impact of production change on fat and protein availability in 2009 (from 2008) ABER-BVLE Impact of production change on fat and protein availability in 2009 (from 2008) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 22

SMP market balance 2003 -2009 Outlook ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September SMP market balance 2003 -2009 Outlook ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 23

Milk fat and protein surplus based on intervention (+PSA) offers ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Milk fat and protein surplus based on intervention (+PSA) offers ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 24

Policy responses (on-going) § § § EU dairy farmers receive € 5 billion direct Policy responses (on-going) § § § EU dairy farmers receive € 5 billion direct payments annually. This year, 70 % of direct payments can be made as early as 16 October, instead of 1 December as usual. We expect to spend € 600 million on market instruments (public intervention, aid for private storage, export refunds) over 12 months. Our rural development policy – now worth more than € 14 billion a year following the CAP Health Check and the Economic Recovery Package - offers a long list of measures which national governments can use to make the dairy sector more competitive and help it to restructure. We’re reinforcing the School Milk Scheme which Member States can use to distribute dairy products in schools. We’ve opened a new round for dairy product promotion programmes. ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 25

Policy responses (planned) § § In the short term – allow Member States to Policy responses (planned) § § In the short term – allow Member States to offer farmers up to € 15 000 in state aid under the Temporary Crisis Framework; – give the Commission new powers to take rapid temporary action against market disturbance in the dairy sector through a streamlined procedure; – temporarily change the rules on certain milk quota buy-up schemes to give them more influence on production and restructuring. Longer-term issues under consideration – a possible legal framework for contractual relations between milk farmers and the dairy industry; – the possible usefulness of an EU dairy futures market; – ideas for cutting production costs and spreading innovation; – the “balance of power” in the dairy sector supply chain (a Commission report is due by the end of this year). ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 26

Possible recovery in Q 4? § § § Price increase of September Declining intervention Possible recovery in Q 4? § § § Price increase of September Declining intervention offers in Q 3 Increased export licence applications in Q 3 Seasonal decline in milk production Relative improvement in economic outlook ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 27

Medium term perspectives The March 2009 Baseline Medium term perspectives The March 2009 Baseline

Milk supply: growth remains below potential EU milk production, deliveries to dairies, dairy cows Milk supply: growth remains below potential EU milk production, deliveries to dairies, dairy cows ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 29

Cheese: demand prospects remain favourable and drive production growth EU production, consumption and trade Cheese: demand prospects remain favourable and drive production growth EU production, consumption and trade (mio t) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 30

Butter: declining production lead to the disappearance of public stocks by 2012 EU production, Butter: declining production lead to the disappearance of public stocks by 2012 EU production, consumption, trade and intervention stocks (mio t) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 31

SMP: lengthy de-stocking from intervention with little support from exports (facing strong competition) EU SMP: lengthy de-stocking from intervention with little support from exports (facing strong competition) EU production, consumption, trade and intervention stocks (mio t) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 32

DG AGRI Publications § Dairy market situation 2009 (22/07/2009) http: //ec. europa. eu/agriculture/markets/milk/report 2009/index_en. DG AGRI Publications § Dairy market situation 2009 (22/07/2009) http: //ec. europa. eu/agriculture/markets/milk/report 2009/index_en. htm § Prospects for agricultural markets and income in the European Union 2008 -2015 (03/2009) http: //ec. europa. eu/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects 2008/index_en. htm § Impact Assessment of the Health Check Proposal for a Gradual Phasing-out of Milk Quotas http: //ec. europa. eu/agriculture/healthcheck/ia_annex/d 2 c_en. pdf ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 33

Annex ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 34 Annex ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 34

Dairy market and consumer price developments since 1997 (Jan 1997=100) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Dairy market and consumer price developments since 1997 (Jan 1997=100) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 35

Number of milk producers in the EU ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 Number of milk producers in the EU ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 36

EU income from manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR ABER-BVLE Conference on EU income from manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 37

Annex – baseline assumptions ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 38 Annex – baseline assumptions ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 38

Policy assumptions § CAP in its current (post Health Check) form – Phasing out Policy assumptions § CAP in its current (post Health Check) form – Phasing out milk quotas – Intervention mechanism reduced to wheat, butter and skimmed milk powder – Further decoupling until 2012 – SAPS maintained until 2013 (inclusive) – Abolition of mandatory set-aside – Increased modulation § World trade remains in conformity with the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 39

Macro-economic assumptions § Economic crisis beclouds the short-term outlook § Medium-term prospects remain favourable Macro-economic assumptions § Economic crisis beclouds the short-term outlook § Medium-term prospects remain favourable – EU GDP growth around +2. 1% per year – USD/EUR exchange rate to stabilise around 1. 35 – EU inflation around 1. 9% per year – EU population growth would slow to 0. 3% per year – Crude oil price fluctuates between 78 -85 USD/barrel – World GDP growth above 3. 6% per year § High degree of uncertainty as the economic outlook remains subject to a number of (mainly downside) risks ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 40

Assumptions for USD/EUR exchange rate and GDP growth (compared to assumptions in March 2008) Assumptions for USD/EUR exchange rate and GDP growth (compared to assumptions in March 2008) ABER-BVLE Conference on Milk Crisis, Brussels, 29 September 2009 41