The Science of Climate Change and how you

The Science of Climate Change and how you can contribute to Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) Dr Kat Eames Researcher (Research & Curriculum Lead) Kingston University Sustainability Hub Stream: Partnership and Engagement 1

Three take home messages 1. A little more Climate Change Science info 2. Some answers to climate questions 3. Some ideas of how you can teach ESD 2

The Science of Climate Change and how you can contribute to ESD Dr Kat Eames Researcher (Research & Curriculum Lead) Kingston University Sustainability Hub 3

To get us started, how do you think global temperatures have varied: - 1. Since 2000? 2. Since 1850? 3. In the last 1, 000 years? 4. In the last 10, 000 years? 5. And finally over the last 400, 000 years? Temperature Past Time Present 4

0. 7 0. 6 Temperature Anomaly ℃ 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Date Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Data from Had. CRUT 3 http: //www. cru. uea. ac. uk/cru/data/temperature/ 5

Figure 1. A clear correlation can be seen between the three global-average temperature records, which were created independently. They all show a marked warming trend, particularly over the past three decades. Data provided courtesy of NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA and NASA GISS. 6

(dark blue 1000 -1991): P. D. Jones et al. (1998). (blue 1000 -1980): M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1999). (light blue 1000 -1965): Crowley and Lowery (2000). (lightest blue 1402 -1960): K. R. Briffa, T. J. Osborn, et al. (2001). (light green 831 -1992): J. Esper et al. (2002). (yellow 200 -1980): M. E. Mann and P. D. Jones (2003). (orange 200 -1995): P. D. Jones and M. E. Mann (2004). (red-orange 1500 -1980): S. Huang (2004). (red 1 -1979): A. Moberg et al. (2005). (dark red 1600 -1990): J. H. Oerlemans (2005). 7 (black 1856 -2004): Instrumental data Had. CRUT 2

For inset plot and for matching temperature scale to modern values colours same as on previous slide (dark blue) Sediment core ODP 658, interpreted sea surface temperature, Eastern Tropical Atlantic: M. Zhao, et al. (1995). (blue) Vostok ice core, interpreted paleotemperature, Central Antarctica: Petit J. R. , et al. (1999). (light blue) GISP 2 ice core, interpreted paleotemperature, Greenland: Alley, R. B. (2000). (green) Kilimanjaro ice core, δ 18 O, Eastern Central Africa: Thompson, L. G. , et al. (2002). (yellow) Sediment core PL 07 -39 PC, interpreted sea surface temperature, North Atlantic: Lea, D. W. , D. K. Pak, L. C. Peterson, and K. A. Hughen (2003). (orange) Pollen distributions, interpreted temperature, Europe: B. A. S. Davis, S. Brewer, A. C. Stevenson, J. Guiot (2003). (red) EPICA ice core, δDeuterium, Central Antarctica: EPICA community members (2004). (dark red) Composite sediment cores, interpreted sea surface temperature, Western Tropical Pacific: L. D. Stott, et al. (2004). 8

How did you do? Key surprises/thoughts: • Thought there had been more change in last 10 years • Didn’t know the size of the changes in temperature • Hadn’t realised the ice age timings 10

How do we know? • Instrumental records ₋ Weather enthusiasts who set up official stations recording how, when and where they collected data, (some last 50 years +) ₋ Ships logged water temperature during their journeys, again recording how, when and where measurements taken Key Ref: Brohan, P. , J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophysical Research 111, D 12106, doi: 10. 1029/2005 JD 006548 11

How do we know? : • Instrumental records • Climate Proxies ₋ Tree Rings (dendroclimatology) ₋ Sea floor sediments 12

How do we know? • Instrumental records • Climate Proxies ₋ Tree Rings (dendroclimatology) ₋ Sea floor sediments ₋ Geology ₋ Ice cores (pollen, gas, water isotopes) Geological profile showing drop stones Glacial ice core showing bubbles of old atmosphere Vostok ice core results 13

How do we know? • Instrumental records • Climate Proxies ₋ Tree Rings (dendroclimatology) ₋ Sea floor sediments ₋ Geology ₋ Ice cores (pollen, gas, water isotopes) ₋ Cave formations (stalagmites, stalactites and flowstones) ₋ Other written/historical records 14

Natural forcings that cause these variations • Milankovitch variations ₋ Eccentricity ₋ Obliquity (Axial Tilt) ₋ Precession 100, 000 year cycle 40, 000 year cycle 26, 000 year cycle http: //www. sciencecourseware. or g/eec/Global. Warming/Tutorials/ 15 Milankovitch/

Natural forcings that cause these variations • Milankovitch variations • Solar Sunspot imaged on 2004 -06 -22 Though sunspots are dark the area around them emits higher than average radiation so net increase in output 16

(light blue) Law Dome CO 2 Data: ftp: //ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law_co 2. txt (blue) Mauna Loa CO 2 data: http: //www. esrl. noaa. gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co 2_mm_mlo. dat (red) Temperature Data: http: //www. cru. uea. ac. uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut 3 gl. txt (orange) Sunspot data: http: //sidc. oma. be/DATA/yearssn. dat 17

Natural forcings that cause these variations • Milankovitch variations • Solar • Volcanic 18

Natural forcings that cause these variations • Milankovitch variations • Solar • Volcanic • Feedback loops Positive feedbacks especially important as these enhance changes that have already occurred 19

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• 0. 04% of our atmosphere is CO 2 • Atmospheric CO 2 naturally oscillates • Atmospheric CO 2 and global temperatures tightly coupled • Background atmospheric CO 2 : 172 – 300 ppm over past ~800, 000 years • CO 2/CH 4 may significantly contribute to the glacial–interglacial changes (Petit, et al, 1999) Methane (CH 4) Temperature CO 2 Siegenthaler et al 2005, Spanhi et al 2005 21

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect August 2011, 390 ppm (NOAA) 22

Figure 1. A clear correlation can be seen between the three global-average temperature records, which were created independently. They all show a marked warming trend, particularly over the past three decades. Data provided courtesy of NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA and NASA GISS. 23

Black line = measured global temperature changes Blue line = changes expected naturally Pink line = changes expected due to nature and humans © IPCC 2007: WG 1 -AR 4 24

Changes in UK Climate seen already • Central England Temperature up by 1°C since 1970 s • Less rainfall in the summer • More winter rainfalling in fewer events 25

Changes in UK Climate seen already • More severe windstorms • Sea temperatures up by 0. 7°C since 1980 s • Sea levels have risen by 1 mm/yr in 20 th Century (more in 1990 s and 2000 s) 26

Argentina's Upsala Glacier was once the biggest in South America, but it is now disappearing at a rate of 200 metres 27 per year.

For the future. . . • Global temperatures will rise by 1. 4 to 5. 8°C 28

For the future. . . Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used in TAR and AR 4 29

IPCC AR 4 Figure 10. 26 Working Group 1 report 30

For the future. . . • Global temperatures will rise by 1. 4 to 5. 8°C • Sea-level is expected to rise by around 35 cm • Change in climate and weather patterns • Increase in severity and frequency of extreme weather events 31

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For the future. . . • High Impact, low probability events ₋ Gulf stream shift ₋ Collapse of West Antarctic ice sheet 33

So… why reduce CO 2? • To reduce the impacts of climate change (? ) • To reduce Ocean Acidification 34

Atmospheric CO 2 Dissolved CO 2 + H 2 O H 2 CO 3 HCO 3 - + H+ Seawater p. H CO 32 - + 2 H+ [H+] increases, [CO 32 -] decreases, p. H decreases 35

So… why reduce CO 2? • To reduce the impacts of climate change (? ) • To reduce Ocean Acidification • To reduce our reliance on fossil fuels (London would run out of food in 3 days if we had no petrol/diesel) 36

The Science of Climate Change and how you can contribute to ESD Dr Kat Eames Researcher (Research & Curriculum Lead) Kingston University Sustainability Hub Stream: Partnership and Engagement 37

Workshop Part 1. In small groups (4 -5) 1. What questions do you have/have you been asked about climate change? 2. How would you answer them now? 38

Workshop Part 2. Climate Change is only a very small part of Education for Sustainable Development With teaching being the core business for Universities and Colleges it is important to incorporate sustainability in the curricula 39

Workshop Part 2. In small groups (4 -5) 1. Have you been asked to contribute to ESD? 2. If yes, share your experiences. . If no, how do you feel you could? 3. What are the barriers? 40

Three take home messages 1. A little more Climate Change Science info 2. Some answers to common CC questions 3. Some ideas of how you can teach ESD 41

Your next steps – making the most of your EAUC Membership… 1. Resources - visit the dedicated Education for Sustainability section 2. on the EAUC resource bank Networks - join SHED, the leading cross sector Community of Practice in the UK for Education for Sustainability (Ef. S). Developed in collaboration with Higher Education Academy. • Find out more about this group at 5 pm tomorrow – see programme for details 3. Recognition - enter the 2012 Green Gown Awards skills and/or 4. courses categories. Entries open summer 2012 Measure and improve - sign up to Li. FE for help on embedding ESD into your institution www. thelifeindex. org. uk. EAUC Members receive a significant discount 1. Li. FE offers a dedicated ‘learning and teaching’ framework Membership matters at www. eauc. org. uk 42

Clark, D. H. & Stephenson, F. R. (1978) An Interpretation of the Pre-Telescopic Sunspot Records from the Orient. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 19, p. 387 43

Case Study of Ice as a Climate Proxy Isotopic fractionation 44 4 4

Natural forcings that cause these variations • Milankovitch variations • Solar • Volcanic Global-mean monthly temperature for the period 1980 -1999, showing the effects of the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991. The upper graph shows the complete global-mean temperature record as context. 45

IPCC Figure TS. 6. Patterns of linear global temperature trends over the period 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface (left), and for the troposphere from satellite records (right). Grey indicates areas with incomplete data. 46

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Key causes of sea level change: • Land movements e. g. UK • Water storage on land (as ice, in rivers/lakes, etc) • Thermal expansion 48

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IPCC AR 4 Figure 10. 26 Working Group 1 report 51

52 Regional Economic Global Environmental balanced

Thermohaline circulation driven by temperature and salt (salinity changes) 54

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Could raise sea levels by 3 metres http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=sk. MO 4 GN 1 rns 56

Point of thought – Earth takes much longer to cool than to warm

Your next steps – making the most of your EAUC Membership… 1. Resources - visit the dedicated Education for Sustainability section 2. on the EAUC resource bank Networks - join SHED, the leading cross sector Community of Practice in the UK for Education for Sustainability (Ef. S). Developed in collaboration with Higher Education Academy. • Find out more about this group at 5 pm tomorrow – see programme for details 3. Recognition - enter the 2012 Green Gown Awards skills and/or 4. courses categories. Entries open summer 2012 Measure and improve - sign up to Li. FE for help on embedding ESD into your institution www. thelifeindex. org. uk. EAUC Members receive a significant discount 1. Li. FE offers a dedicated ‘learning and teaching’ framework Membership matters at www. eauc. org. uk 58