The Road Ahead Strategic Trends and Emerging Technologies

The Road Ahead: Strategic Trends and Emerging Technologies David Cearley VP & Gartner Fellow Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor. relations@gartner. com. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

"The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed. " — William Gibson Photo: Midnightzulu

Top 10 Strategic Emerging Trends Technology/Trend • • • Mainstream Adoption Cloud Computing. . . Now - 2020 Social Software. . . . Now - 2020 Next Generation Analytics. . . 2 – 10 years Mobile & Real World Web. . . Now - 2020 Context Aware Computing. . . 5 -10 (pieces now) Augmented Reality. . . 2 -5 & >10 Future User Interfaces. . . . 2 – 10 years 3 d Printing. . . . . 5 -10 years Mobile Robots. . . . > 10 years Fabric Computing. . . 5 – 10+ years

Cloud Computing - Everything is a Service 5 Business Services 4 Information 3 Applications (Saa. S) 2 System Infra. (Iaa. S) A Implementing Cloud Computing Environments B Developing Cloud. Based Applications and Solutions C App. Infra. (Paa. S) 1 Consuming Cloud Services * Private cloud computing exists when cloud services are delivered to a limited set of customers In public cloud computing services are delivered to an open and undifferentiated set of customers 3 Focal Points for Cloud Projects 5 Broad Categories of Services Gartner defines cloud computing as "a style of computing where scalable and elastic IT-related capabilities are provided 'as a service' to customers* using Internet technologies. "

Cloud-Computing Implementation Models Virtual Private Cloud Public Cloud Community Private Cloud Owner Company Provider Operator Company Provider Service Access Closed (enterprise) Limited group (community) Open Level of Control Full High Low None Points of Leverage Skills (none) Assets (none) Arch. (none) Skills (strong) Assets (none) Arch. (strong) Skills (strong) Assets (some) Arch (strong) Skills (strong) Assets (strong) Arch (strong) User Z Managed Private Cloud Provider X Custom Private Cloud Company B Company A Company A Open Public Closed Private

Reference Model for Cloud Service Brokerage Who Does CSB? Cloud Brokerage Business Deliver Services Delivery PS MS BPU BPO Services Enrichment … Billing Supplier Analytics Mgmt. … Integration Insurance Governance Enhancement Customization Context Arbitrage Broker Aggregation Cloud Brokerage Functions (CBF) Cloud Brokerage Enabling Technology (CBET) Governance Enable Integration • Policy/Rules • Reg. /Rep. • Reporting • Monitoring • SLA • Compliance • Connectors • Adapters • Messaging • Routing • Mediation • Flow Management Development Community • Caching • Platform Mgmt. • Bandwidth Mgmt. • Tools • Autoscaling • APIs • Load Mgmt. • Expertise • Offloading • Compliance • Provisioning • Operations • Life Cycle • Catalog • Application Integration Providers • Ecosystem or Marketplace owners • B 2 B cloud providers • Saa. S system integrators • Cloud API managers • Backup and recovery providers • And more…

Social Software: The Next Stages of the Journey • Internal collaboration - Consumer-led innovation and adoption continues - Social Communication & Collaboration • Crowdsourcing and collective Intelligence • Knowledge management reborn - Tacit knowledge captured as a side-effect of communication • Social Analysis Create Capture Use Collaborate Organize Access

Next Generation Analytics: Collaborative, Predictive, Real-Time & Embedded What Happened? Why Did it Happen? What Will Happen? In-line/ embedded analytics Enabling Trends Social/BI Convergence BI Search Data Mashups In-Memory Analysis Columnar database Cloud Analytic Services Combining & Collaborating Traditional offline analytics Explanatory Simple Consumption Predictive Through 2012, 20% of organizations will have the skills and maturity necessary to fully exploit next generation analytics

Predictive Analytics: New Sources, New Insights Information Products and Services Relevance § Passive data capture: Topic sensors, cameras Source § New data sources of Quality massive scale § Automated discovery of new attributes § New sources for task automation § Perfect recall, privacy Places and transparency Quality Navigation Who's there What's around Location Quality Owner Status People Mood Location Availability Preferences

The Future is Mobile How Does It Affect You? • Mobile is becoming a major design point for more applications • Tablet use will explode • Mobile apps are a critical enabler of B 2 C interactions Harbinger: Many tens of thousands of new and more powerful applications are coming online. This will accelerate. • Context Aware Computing enters your planning through location based services • Application delivery, management and support complexity increases • The rise of the “App Store”

The Emergence of the “Apptrepreneure” • Etymology: - Application Developer - Entrepreneur • Definition: - One who authors applications and then delivers them through virtual, context-specific application stores and marketplaces rather than traditional software distribution channels. • Apptrepreneure Distribution Channels - Mobile Device - Browser - Social Network - Application Platform

This is Already Happening Facebook i. Phone and i. Pad Linked-In Web/Cloud Platforms

Apptrepreneureship – The Government/Enterprise Perspective • Gov/Enterprise has three interests – - Acquiring software themselves in a manner similar to consumers - Enabling internal programmers and Citizen Developers to build and deliver proprietary solutions using the tools of the Apptrepreneur. - Engaging contituents in the marketplaces where Apptrepreneurs play – putting them in competition with the Apptrepreneur; • Expose business data and processes, and let the community take over - Leverage the ecosystem: Launch a WOA API • Not as simple as “build it and they will come”

Real World Web: Unifying the Digital and Physical Worlds Location identification and geo-tagging Object identification: RFID, QR bar code, image recognition Sensor networks: temperature, humidity, acceleration, light Source: Sensor Wireless Consumer services Environmental monitoring Supply chain improvements Collective sensing Source: Violet Source: Sensor Wireless

The Emerging Architecture of Context-Aware Computing Pre-context Simple systems and walled gardens Open systems and federations Presence, PIM . . . + Location, Identity, Simple behavior and habits, Social networks Simple proactive alerts . . . + Sensors, bio sensors Adjacent devices and people, Complex anticipatory behavior, Complex federated services, Complex communities 2009 2010 -2012 2015 -2020

Information in Context: Augmented Reality Source: Nokia Source: MIT Media Lab • Context-based information at point of decision/action • Mobile devices with location information at leading edge of augmented reality • Emerging wearable and "glanceable" interfaces • Leveraging "learnable moments": Accenture Personal Performance Coach, views of future self • Long term human augmentation trend

The Z Factor: Computing in Three Dimensions Source: Microsoft Source: Sony Source: Next. Engine Source: MIT Input Processing Output Future 3 D scanners 3 D cameras Gesture control Digital clay 3 D design tools Virtual worlds 3 D displays 3 D printers Mobile AR Programmable matter

2015 -2020: The Fluid User Experience • Ensemble interactions involving many devices • Interactions that shift to the most appropriate device • Contextual interactions • New sensors and control mechanisms, including emotion, gesture. . . • Emotionally aware interactions • "Wow factor" The Environment Is The Computer

2011 -2015: The User Experience Platform Collab. Content Mobile Context Analytics Portal UXP Search Mashup E-Commerce BI Dashboards RIA UX Mgmt. Social SOA/BPM/Web/Cloud Platform • Next step for portal and mashup markets • Tools to build and validate usability are inherent. • User Experience Plaform (UXP) is not a market — yet. • New players from complementary markets • Roll-your-own UXP • UX Design is more important than UXP

3 -D Printing: From $200 K to $20 K • Industrial prototyping and 3 -D faxing — product design, production prototyping, architectural models, medical modeling • 3 -D printing bureaus, home printing of replacement parts • Scanning and replication • Challenge — range and combination of materials • DARPA programmable matter program Source: Next. Engine Source: Programmable Matter Research in Daniela Rus's Laboratory at CSAIL MIT Source: Z Corporation

Mobile Robots Drive Mobile Infrastructure • Traditional applications: telepresence in hostile environments, autonomous vehicles, cleaning, delivery, toys, companions, humanoids • Emerging applications in mobile infrastructure: telepresence, RFID, warehousing • R&D in carrying, lifting and rescue: military, emergency response, home healthcare • Human augmentation: exoskeletons, walking aids Source: In-Touch Health Source: Kiva Systems Source: Honda News Release

Computing Fabrics From Converged to Decomposed Infrastructure A C Rack 1 B Rack 2 Memory Processor I/O

"When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened. " — John M. Richardson, Jr.

Emerging Trends Radar Screen David Cearley VP & Gartner Fellow Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor. relations@gartner. com. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.