The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program RISA

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for decision support Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA Boulder CO 80305 CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS, GCDAMP 1

• What/where are the critical issues and who is/are defining them? • What are the processes? • What are the applications? • What are the outcomes? 2

Planning for climate risks? There is strong evidence that existing climate risks are not being adequately incorporated into decision-making, even with regard to weather extremes (Source: Munich. Re, Topics Geo Annual Review, Natural Catastrophes, 2005) 3

Conclusions, so far • Degradation is often a long-term process with cumulative phases of acceleration and deceleration • Rates of changes are important • Processes involve multiple timescales (conjunction of several factors at unique points) • Degradation must be placed within wider social and environmental dynamics (other phases of landscape transformation) eg size of settlements and adequacy of social mechanisms to deal with changing circumstances 4

Three reasons for assessing climate change in the context of adaptation to extremes and variability: (1) A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the role of surprise in shaping responses (2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by crises, learning and redesign (3) Opportunities exist to learn from organizations that cope with change and focus on responses and social networking such as disaster relief and research ……. . BUT—long-term scenarios can also bring focus on changes in extremes… (Orlove, 2004: Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003) 5

The Asipu A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley 2500 -3000 BC • • Hazard identification Data collection and analysis Generation of alternatives Report creation 6

Integrated assessment Forecast generation Projections Dissemination Utilization 7

Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system uncertainty and decision stakes (Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990) >2 nd Order Contexts (Integrated Assessments Decision-support) Decision Stakes: Consultancy (Specific applications &output) Can/should probabilities be specified for this area? Applied Sciences (Impacts) Problem solving approach System Uncertainty Physical systems: and linkages Economics &Human Dimensions 8

Resources Vulnerability Capability Physical/material What hazards, skills, productive resources exist? Social/Organizational What are the relations and organizations among people? Behavioral/Incentives How does the community view its ability to create change? Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix 9

Drought 10

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Preparedness Focusing event(s) and cumulative Impacts Mitigation Response Recovery Prevention Development 12

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Multiple competing values Multiple, competing objectives Hydropower Ecosystems health Recreation Consumptive use Flood control Agriculture 14

Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology • • Conveyance of flood waters Storage for irrigation (and power) Predictable navigation opportunity Enhanced recreational uses Adaptation requirements • Sufficient water resources for experimentation • Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem components • Flexibility among stakeholders • Room for political negotiations 15

Where do science and policy speak to each other? and, what do they talk about? 16

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Environment Industry State Communities International Pressures 18

Are we exceeding design specs on this stand? No, you’re biased You’re biased Oh, you’re biased Everyone is biased except me 19

Lessons from the disaster research community Technical range of choice • (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a given point in time) Practical range of choice • (culture, community, practice, communication) No choice • (power, access/procedure, capacity) 20

Where do science, policy and practice, speak to each other? and, what do they talk about? Climate variability and change: 21

Q 3. Find x 3 cm x 4 cm 22

Q 3. Find x Here it is ! 3 cm x 4 cm 23

Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments: Objectives and Approaches Characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes, and their social, economic, and ecological interaction, impacts and projections at appropriate scales of interest within a region · Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical climate-environmentsociety problems in a region and carry out research to bridge these gaps as needed Assess regional and local resources, capacity , and decision-support dialogs needed in responding to environmental variability and change · Carry out research focused on realizing the benefits of integrated knowledge and forecasts in different contexts and provide an informed basis for place-based decision support and services 24

Approach to Integrated Research First vertical assessment, then horizontal 1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty 2. Understand the managed system, i. e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities 3. Understand the institutional context of these systems, e. g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made 4. Work with regional stakeholders at all stages. 25

…. viewed from Information chain Improved Decision Process • • Framing not two Dialog, models Place-based and Types of design Networksimulations Climate the question& Distributed • • Synthesis tools monologues sector-based Scale Platforms scenarios dissemination • • Data trends • Social assimilation & User oriented Appropriate mix of Temporal • New technologies • visualization • observations Scenarios and • Demographics Spatial • • Complexity models Energy use • Quality assurance probabilistic Performance Interactive • • Scenario development Land use outcomes metrics and control and testing • Institutions User friendly Synthesis • • Understanding • Policies • methodologies Flexible • Laws • • Place-based Values • Politics 26

Usual stakeholder interaction – Concentrates on the incorporation of new knowledge or experience into existing models, decision processes and practices Needed – The most important learning involves values, norms, goals, and the basic “framing” of issues in terms of the drivers and importance – Innovative partnerships incl. research 27

Elements of adaptive management: Learning by doing • Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty /with practitioners • Directive and/or need for action • Implement management actions to address resource problems as experiments • Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what does not) • Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and cultural requirements etc. • Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties (transactions costs) 28

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NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers RISA – Pacific Northwest RISA – Western Water High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey International Research Institute RISA – New Hampshire Northeast RCC Cornell University Western RCC Desert Research Institute Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division Climate Diagnostic Center RISA – California Pacific ENSO Applications Center National Center Regional Center States Participating Southern RCC In Two Regions Louisiana State University RISA’s NWS RHQ RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS National Climatic Data Center Southeast RCC S. C. Dept. of Natural Resources RISA – Florida 31

Seattle PUD WDOE/Water Supp. Portland Water Bur. NPPC BPA Seattle City Light Tacoma P&L NOAA River FC US Army Corps Seattle City Council U of I Water Markets/ Energy PNNL OSU/USFS Hydrology/ Water Resources Forests/ Forest hydrology ID Governor’s Office State Legislature USDOI - Western Regional Office Human Health WA Department of Health WDOE Shorelands Prog. WSU Agriculture Climate Dynamics Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Activities OR Dept. of Lands & Development, Coastal Management Prog. US Forest Service National Park Service WDNR OSU Battelle - Seattle BLM NRCS Farmers Irrigation districts WDFW NMFS NPFMC NWIFC CRITFC IPHC 32

Stresses: Integrated Decision Support Modeling Tool Responses: Climate Variability and Change (e. g. , drought) New storage Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands? • Municipal and Industrial • Agriculture • Environment Conjunctive Use Increased Reuse Agricultural Efficiency Conservation Regional growth • Increased population • Changes in land use Goal: Improve regional capabilities to adapt to climate-related impacts. 33

Projected Population Growth NV AZ UT NM CO CA USA 45 Million 64 Million 34

Issue: So Many Stakeholders! Continental Scale: Focus of modelers Different Scales (time & space) Different Issues Different Stakeholders Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist 35

http: //hydis 6. hwr. arizona. edu/Forecast. Evaluation. Tool/ Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts Six elements in our webtool: • Exploring Forecast Progression • Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials • Forecast Performance • Historical Context • Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research 36

Historical Context for Forecasts/projections Recent History 2002 2003 | Possible Futures Requested by Fire managers… La Nina Applicable to any climate variable 2004 Neutral Non-ENSO sequences 37

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45 Million n opulatio P 64 Million 2025 2000 39

Wildfire Threat forecast • The end product is a monthly, county-by-county forecast of the KBDI. • Graphic shows the probability of at least 7 days in the month being above or below critical thresholds. • Thresholds were determined with input from forestry and wildfire experts. • Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase. 40

How Good are Available Forecasts Projections? • Natural • science • Social science • Stakeholder interaction 41

CDC-CIRES Western Water Assessment Mission: To improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge 42

Colorado River Flow Departures from Average WET Compact GC D Salton Sea DRY Climatic Influences ENSO PDO/V Southwest Monsoon 43 Land Surface Feedbacks Extreme Events

Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed flow 1530 -1990 s 44

Timescales Indeterminate Long-term Decade Annual Seasonal Daily-monthly Hourly Flows necessary to protect endangered species Inter-basin allocations and those allocations among states Upper Basin delivery obligations Lake Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage Peak heating and cooling months Flood control operations, Kanab amber snail impacts Western Area Power Administration’s power generation decisions Household-municipal. Tribal/State county Regional National 45 Global

Water Resources: Decision calendars Hydropower Decision Calendars Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars. Planning Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars Planning Agriculture Production Decision Calendars data decisions tion planning data gmentation decisions planning releases Planning data gmentation decisions planning releases tion data gmentation planning releases decisions gmentation releases tion planning gmentation releases Oct Oct Oct 46

Reservoir Management Decision Calendar Water Year Planning Next Water Year Planning Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions Winter releases based on January/February snowpack observations Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve Legend: Planning Process Operational issues Potential use of forecasts Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation Peak Flow Augmentation releases Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows 47

Regional Water Issues Activities Event horizon Understand, Explain, Predict, Assess, Communicate, Evaluate Climate Processes Network Short Term Extreme Events Develop experimental forecasts, monitoring, and application products. Experimental attribution assessments of regional extremes. Subseasonal variability, Arctic Outbreaks, Monsoon, floods, heat waves, tornados, hurricanes Reclamation, Fish and Wildlife Service CBRFC, Office of Hydrology, CPC, HPC, Regional Councils, Wildfire Managers Drought seasonal to multiyear Develop drought forecasts, monitoring, paleoclimate reconstructions and application products. Assess social, environmental, and economic impacts. Flash droughts, snowpack evolution, soil moisture evolution, El Niño and La Niña, multidecadal ocean variability Western Governors Association (WGA), NIDIS, NWS, RFCs, NCDC, RCCs, NDMC, USDA, NRCS, USGS, NASA, Regional Councils, State and Municipal 48 Agencies

Regional Water Issues Activities Event Horizon Understand, Explain, Predict, Assess, Communicate, Evaluate Climate Processes Network Decadal Climate Variability Develop experimental monitoring, attribution, and application products. Assessments of regional trends and risks to inform adaptation strategies. Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Short term influences, Regional Trends Regional Councils, Wildfire Managers, NCAR, Regional Watershed Councils, Municipal Agencies (e. g. , Denver) Climate Change Develop experimental attribution assessments of hemispheric to regional trends. Assess social, environmental, and economic risks (e. g. , Colorado Compact). Observed, current and evolving trends, Enhanced hydrologic cycle, High elevation change CCSP, Reclamation, EPA, USGS, IPCC, NCAR, NASA, Regional Watershed Councils, Municipal Agencies 49

Key partnerships Federal Level: • Bonneville Power Administration • NOAA Fisheries Service • NOAA River Forecast Center • U. S. Army Corps of Engineers • U. S. Bureau of Reclamation • U. S. Congress • USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service • U. S. Environmental Protection Agency • U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service • U. S. Geologic Survey State/Tribal Level: • CA, OR, ID Depts. of Water Resources • WA, OR, ID State Governor’s Offices • WA, OR, ID State Legislatures • WA Department of Ecology • WA Department of Fish and Wildlife • AK Department of Fish and Game • Columbia River Inter. Tribal Fish Commission • Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission Local/Other: • Central Puget Sound Water Suppliers' Forum • City of Tualatin, OR • King County, WA • WA watershed planning units • Portland Water Bureau • Puget Sound Clean Air Agency • Seattle City Light • Seattle Public Utilities • BC Hydro • National Wildlife Federation • Northwest Power and Conservation Council • PNW news media 50

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How Does RISA Support Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change? Decisionsupport tools: Research: Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning Research RISA Decisionsupport Outreach: Outreach Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community 52

Research categories identified by participating groups Strategic • Mission focused, seeks understand natural and human processes identified as important to the solution of a specified problem Applied • Uses existing knowledge to identify approaches and develop prototype technologies and processes to solve problems of widespread importance Adaptive • Articulate problems at local and regional scales • Identify appropriate approaches to solution • Relevant prototype technologies/processes • Fit these to the particular circumstances of specific groups 53

Robustness Strategies for Information: • Knowledge and information – Scientifically credible – Socially robust • Political legitimacy • Practical utility • Effectiveness • To what extent are probabilistic estimates about the future climate impacts robust? (given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO others) 54

• Raising awareness of the role of climate Increasing capacity for response • Innovative research partnerships • Informing decsionmaking: Understanding context, communication and pratice 55

Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions: Beyond “two-way” communication ______________________________________ Approach Assumptions and actions Development and delivery of a risk message From the risk expert to the public--finite and uni-directional Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views Assumes expert view has more validity for decision-making Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous Aimed at balancing the content of risk message Assumes both views contribute to decision-making Social processes of risk communication Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product ___________________________________ 56

Is the research relevant for decisions? Analysis of usefulness for policy/decision making arena Is the research compatible with existing decision models? Is the research accessible to policy/decision maker? Are the sources/providers of information credible to the decision maker? Are policymakers receptive to the problem and to research? Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for decisions, usability, entry points, experience 57

Water Resources: frames Factor Water Manager’s Perspective Researcher’s Perspective Identifying critical issue Time frame Spatial resolution Goals Basis for Decisions Expectation Product Characteristics Frame Nature of Use 58

Factor Water Manager’s Perspective Researcher’s Perspective Identifying critical issue Based on experience External assessment Time frame Immediate (operations) Long-term (infrastructure) Scientifically defensible Fundable project Spatial resolution Institutional boundaries or authorities Scientifically defensible/funding Goals Optimization of multiple conditions and minimize adverse impacts Enhanced understanding, prediction, explanation Basis for Decisions Procedure, judgment, training, Economics, Politics, risk reduction Scientific methods, funding availability, disciplinary training Expectation Save money and time Protect the life and property Understanding, prediction, continued improvement Product Characteristics Simple but accurate Context is important Peer-review publication and recognition Frame Safety and well being, Profit Consistency with institutional culture, policy, etc. Physical (atmospheric, hydrologic, etc. ) conditions as drivers Dependent on scientific discipline Nature of Use Applied Conceptual 59

Managing Uncertainty: Where is the uncertainty? -Problem Domain -science -organizational -community - adequate theory -multiple hypotheses & congruent management actions. -tractability (complexity) -confronting models w/data -independence/ rigor -novelty -political 60

Managing Uncertainty: -Problem Domain -science -organizational -community -political - expressions of power - multiple equilibria paths not taken - NONE are scale invariant - stability of institutions novelty of approaches - role of epistemic groups - multiple discourses - juggling domains 61

A Sea Change in Perceptions Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change… 1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info 1997 -98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information about climate variability and in CIG Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information 2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning 2001/2: 50 -year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts 2003 to present day: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups 62

What’s your conceptual model? What is your mental model? How does this affect your choice of problems and recommended solutions? What “ought” to be done is easier to specify than to understand what is being done 63

Where do science and policy speak to each other? 64

Characteristics of successful conservation and resources-based agreements in the Western US • • • Strong focusing events Significant public interest Personal attention of key leaders Close interjurisdictional partnerships Strong funding for research: collaboration between research and management • Meaningful Stakeholder involvement 65

– Workshops and meetings (shared scenario construction; shared model building? ) – Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized events, e. g. hearings) – One-on-one technical assistance – Coordination with other ongoing projects – Work with the local media – Web site development and maintenance – Graduate-level courses on climate impacts & adaptation What else is needed? Research on the role of climate information in adaptive governance… 66

Adaptive governance • Integrates various types of knowledge and organizations • Recognizes redundancy and slack as buffers relies on open decision-making processes recognizing multiple interests, communitybased initiatives, and integrative science in addition to traditional science - 67

Local information system • Discrete set of information resources organized for the collection, processing, maintenance, transmission, and dissemination of information in accordance with defined procedures to meet specific needs Major information system Special management attention because of its importance to an agency mission, its high development or maintenance costs or its significant role in the administration of agency programs, finance, property or other records 68

Hazard Information Past incidence: Maps, factors affecting occurrence Element of Concern Critical facilities, natural resources, agriculture, population, development (existing. /proposed) Site and Feature Characteristics Specific damage/loss estimate Physical suite characteristics, structural strength, content exposure Hazard Assessment What are the hazards? What severity? What return periods? Who, what are vulnerable Why? Formulation of desired risk reduction strategy Criticality: From hazards to vulnerability to risk Vulnerability Assessment Risk Assessment What is the expected degree of loss? Economic Analysis Of risk reduction options Identification of risk reduction options 69

Implications for Regional Climate Services • Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires: – Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications – Producing very specific, mutually defined products – Building trust with stakeholders over time – Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation 70

Team design and evolution What mix of disciplines, partnerships and institutions? 71

Adaptation experiences to inform governance (1) Clarification of goals at the human-environment interface “while we sought consensus the fish disappeared” (2) Distillation of lessons from comparative appraisals of current and past practices “foresight ≠ hindsight” (3) Construction of a solid cooperative foundation for research and management 72

Adaptation experiences to inform governance (2) (4) Assess how policies and practices have been diffused and become embedded in other localized or specialized policy processes (5) Stimulate the innovation and field-testing of policy experiments for adaptation across climate timescales (not just a particular climate scenario): Need for innovative research partnerships 73

• Integrate an understanding of local contexts and contending perspectives with an understanding of how new information becomes framed and socialized into agendas; • Assess impediments and opportunities to the flow of information including issues of credibility, legitimacy, and acceptability; 74

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers RISA – Pacific Northwest RISA – Western Water High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey International Research Institute RISA – New Hampshire Northeast RCC Cornell University Western RCC Desert Research Institute Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division Climate Diagnostic Center RISA – California Pacific ENSO Applications Center National Center Regional Center States Participating Southern RCC In Two Regions Louisiana State University RISA’s NWS RHQ RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS National Climatic Data Center Southeast RCC S. C. Dept. of Natural Resources RISA – Florida 75

Interactions: Participatory Assessments: actionresearch orientation B. Range of scientific knowledge frames: predictive capabilities uncertainty, ignorance/ indeterminacy A. Assessments: Situation Participants Activities Needs Resources/Capacity C. Policy contexts and decision-making processes D. Dynamic dialogue between researchers (non-decisive) and practitioners (decisive) on problem-definition: shared understanding of significance and value conflicts Constraints: Time, $, Rates of change 76

RESEARCH RISAs, universities, and labs & OTHER NON-NOAA PARTNERS Regional Oversight and Evaluation A Prototype Pathway for Regional Climate Information Services DEVELOPMENT & Integrating knowledge and products (CDC, ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs) IMPLEMENTATION & Operational (RCCs, NCDC, CPC, WFOs, SCs, other private sector) SERVICES new or enhanced regional products information delivery technology sustained & systematic communication and feedback 77

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) “Creating a National Drought Early Warning System” • Goal: To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts. • “WGA believes NOAA should be designated as the federal lead for NIDIS. NOAA should take the initiative to convene and coordinate all of the relevant entities, including federal and non-federal partners, as well as scientists, water users and policy-makers to implement those aspects of NIDIS that can be accomplished under existing authorities and funding. ” www. westgov. org/wga/publicat/nidis. pdf 78

Doing the wrong thing…more precisely 79

Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly? 80

A pathetic track record for implementation of environmental assessment and adaptive management: Successful Modeling failure Implementation failure 81

We can now build some really impressive looking models Peregrine falcon Water birds Exotic fishes Cowbird Sparrows etc. Native fishes Aquatic insects Terrestrial insects Detritus Benthic algae Riparian vegetation Flow Turbidity Temperature Water management regime 82

Early Warning (sub)Systems • Monitoring and forecasting subsystem National, regional and local levels • Risk assessment sub-system Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact scenarios • Preparedness sub-system Outline and inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What? When? • Communication and public awareness sub-system Communication/delivery of timely information on impending events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable groups • Evaluation and feedback sub-system Scale: Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs? What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are 83 made? How can this process be improved

National Integrated Drought Information System Customer defined measures of drought Research Monitoring Prediction Integrating Tools Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels Proactive Planning Impact Mitigation Improved Responses 84

Modify societal characteristics Social system • Variation/change • Exposure Adjustment process • Perception • evaluation Response • Choice • Adoption of practice Natural Hazard Disaster Natural system Variation/change • Magnitude • Duration • frequency Hazard effects • Costs and losses • gains Emergency adjustments Modify biophysical characteristics 85

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Hazard Vulnerability EVENT PREPAREDNESS Socio-economic National and Political Economy International Policy STATUS Return period, Duration Magnitude, Seasonality Uncertainty D building Livelihood I Hurricanes Flood Drought Earthquakes Volcanic Activity Landscape Disease S A S T E R Self protection. Income Distribution surplus quality Opportunity Social Protection (Building regulations level of scientific knowledge/use) RESILIENCE? Strength of assets Generation & allocation GENDER Household Security, Nutrition Social power&control Debt crises Environmental degradation CULTURE//STATE Income, Assets Institutional Discrimination Support - Regional - Local Recovery of livelihood Impacts of previous interventions Biases, Training HEALTH Social precaution/ Infrastructure, Individual robustness Household activities, Access to reliable potable water, treatment _________________________________________________ 87