The Redesign Dilemma Robert P. Ernst Head, Aging Aircraft Program Naval Air Systems Command
Agenda Decision factors & options for the program manager Weapons for fighting the impacts of Defense Darwinism
Program Managers Dilemma • Redesign or Life-of-Type Support – What factors need to be considered? – What option does the PM choose? – At what point does the PM decide?
Replacement Decision ‘Trigger’
Decision Factors • • • Service Life Operational Requirements AVDLR or Maintenance Cost Hardware Availability Sustaining Support Available Options – Associated Risk – Cost of execution
Decision Factors: -Service Life
Decision Factors: -Service Life • Hardware Wear out – Drift rate of components • Handling, excessive rework, fatigue, time vs gain, offsets, etc – Reversion of Materials • Adhesive or epoxy breakdown due to time, temp, sunlight
Decision Factors: -Operational Requirements Enough Parts Good ($) Parts Cost & Reliability Obsolescence ? Does the job Functionality • Need increased performance • Mission Change • Improperly defined Req’ts • High Failure Rate – Electrical Stress – Thermal Stress – Mechanical Stress
Decision Factors: Hardware Availability You Are Here • Integrate supply & demand – Evaluate system-level spares – Excess microcircuit stock/die
Decision Factors: Hardware Availability • Integrate supply & demand – Evaluate system-level spares – Excess microcircuit stock/die
Available Options Box Redesign/ Subsystem Replacement Aftermarket Manufacturer Full System Replacement Emulation Component Solution-------System Replacement System Redesign/Box Replacement Card Emulation Part Substitution Life-of-Type Buy Low Cost Risk High
Finding the same part. . . 1980 Boeing Mc. Donnell Douglas 2001 Boeing Hughes Helicopter Rockwell General Dynamics Lockheed Martin Marietta United Technologies Grumman Northrop LTV Fairchild Kaman Bell Lockheed Martin (Sikorsky) Northrop Grumman Textron
Defense Darwinism Impacts • Mergers, buy outs, die-offs result in: – Product Line Consolidation – Redefinition of sustained products – Division spin-offs – Changes to manufacturing techniques
Defense Darwinism • Makes finding ‘listed part’ DIFFICULT! – Beware of Part Number Changes! – Discontinuation Notices are not final • Industry thrives on cash • Sometimes it only takes a phone call – Check for alternate suppliers • Requires comparison of parametrics • Usually requires testing
Get off the obsolescence treadmill! F/A-18 C/D Waterfall Couple Parts Evaluation with Design Evaluation – Let’s incorporate reliable solutions – Appropriate use of parts with design applications
Incorporate Design Tradeoffs Do we really need Full MIL-TEMP range? ? • Incorporation of industrial grade (-40 C - 85 C) • Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on
Resources: Module/Subassembly Replacement • Many OTS subassemblies available that duplicate performance -- BOLT-ON REPLACEMENT! • Excellent candidates for power supplies/EMI filters • AAIPT -- acceptable solution for 10% of obsolescence solutions
Resources: Minor board level redesign, Mod of existing board • Alternate part available in dif pkg/pinout • Alt part is functionally different, but SRA requirements unchanged • Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes
Resources: Board-Level Redesign • Good Option – Multiple obsolescence problem – Board wear-out – Functionality changes (mission) • Risk – All interfaces properly defined • Linear over operating temperatures • Throughput – Probable TPS/Software changes
Resources: WRA-Level Redesign Example -- CAINS
Resources: System-Level Replacement Multiple WRA Redesign • Requires: – Systems-Level analysis – Major Logistics impact – Proper definitions – Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp. COTS) – RISK
DMEA/ARINC Case History Alternate available 2/3 rds of the time
NAVAIR Case History • Avoidance to date -- $19. 6 Million • Savings to date -- $4. 5 Million
APG-65 Radar Example 5 WRA’s 553 microcircuits 40 obs. components 4 SRA’s impacted multiple times – expensive hybrid design – $1 -11 K per device Options Which is most cost effective? A. Emulation @ SRA level B. DMEA Flexible Foundry C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister Company”
APG-65 Options Multiple components on several cards High cost components Uncertain supplier Decision: Mixture of card and component emulation
Conclusions
Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain
Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain 2. Evaluate options based on: a. Existing FY cost b. 7 -year window c. Weapon LCC
Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain 2. Evaluate options based on: a. Existing FY cost b. 7 -year window c. Weapon LCC 3. Integrated weapon system evaluations - can’t chase chips
Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain 2. Evaluate options based on: a. Existing FY cost b. 7 -year window c. Weapon LCC 3. Int. wpn sys. evaluations - can’t chase chips 4. Current toolsets inadequate to assist PM’s with decision process
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