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The PRISM Approach to Mapping Climate in Complex Regions Christopher Daly Director, PRISM Group The PRISM Approach to Mapping Climate in Complex Regions Christopher Daly Director, PRISM Group Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and Engineering Department of Geosciences Oregon State University Corvallis, Oregon, USA PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Group Facts Ø 5 -FTE applied research team at Oregon State University, 100% PRISM Group Facts Ø 5 -FTE applied research team at Oregon State University, 100% externally funded Ø The PRISM Group is the only center in the world dedicated solely to the spatial analysis of climate Ø PRISM climate mapping technology has been continuously developed, and repeatedly peer-reviewed, since 1991 Ø The PRISM Group is the de facto climate mapping center for the US Ø The PRISM Group is advancing “Geospatial Climatology” as an emerging discipline PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Rationale - Observations are rarely sufficient to directly represent the spatial patterns of climate Rationale - Observations are rarely sufficient to directly represent the spatial patterns of climate - Human-expert mapping methods often produce the best products, but are slow, inconsistent, and non-repeatable - Purely statistical mapping methods are fast and repeatable, but rarely provide the best accuracy, detail, and realism Therefore… - The best method may be a statistical approach that is automated, but developed, guided and evaluated with expert knowledge PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Knowledge-Based System KBS - Knowledge acquisition capability – Elicit expert information - Knowledge base Knowledge-Based System KBS - Knowledge acquisition capability – Elicit expert information - Knowledge base – Store of knowledge - Inference Engine – Infer solutions from stored knowledge - User interface – Interaction and explanation - Independent verification – Knowledge refinement PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model - Generates gridded estimates of climatic parameters PRISM Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model - Generates gridded estimates of climatic parameters - Moving-window regression of climate vs. elevation for each grid cell - - Uses nearby station observations Spatial climate knowledge base weights stations in the regression function by their physiographic similarity to the target grid cell PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation Interface PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation Interface PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Knowledge Base - Elevation Influence on Climate PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 PRISM Knowledge Base - Elevation Influence on Climate PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1961 -90 Mean January Precipitation, Sierra Nevada, CA, USA Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 1961 -90 Mean January Precipitation, Sierra Nevada, CA, USA Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1961 -90 Mean August Max Temperature, Sierra Nevada, CA, USA Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM 1961 -90 Mean August Max Temperature, Sierra Nevada, CA, USA Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1963 -1993 Mean November Precipitation, Puerto Rico PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 1963 -1993 Mean November Precipitation, Puerto Rico PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1963 -93 Mean June Maximum Temperature, Puerto Rico PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 1963 -93 Mean June Maximum Temperature, Puerto Rico PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1971 -90 Mean February Precipitation, European Alps PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 1971 -90 Mean February Precipitation, European Alps PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1961 -90 Mean September Max Temperature, Qin Ling Mountains, China Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM 1961 -90 Mean September Max Temperature, Qin Ling Mountains, China Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Moving-Window Regression Function Oregon Annual Precipitation Weighted linear regression PRISM Overview 5 -8 PRISM Moving-Window Regression Function Oregon Annual Precipitation Weighted linear regression PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 1961 -90 Mean April Precipitation, Qin Ling Mountains, China

Governing Equation Moving-window regression of climate vs elevation y = β 1 x + Governing Equation Moving-window regression of climate vs elevation y = β 1 x + β 0 Y = predicted climate element x = DEM elevation at the target cell β 0 = y-intercept β 1 = slope x, y pairs - elevation and climate observations from nearby climate stations PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Station Weighting Combined weight of a station is: W = f {Wd Wz Wc Station Weighting Combined weight of a station is: W = f {Wd Wz Wc Wf Wp Wl Wt We} - Distance Elevation Clustering Topographic Facet (orientation) PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 - Coastal Proximity Vertical Layer (inversion) Topographic Index (cold air pooling) Effective Terrain Height (orographic profile)

PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture index) - PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Rain Shadow: 1961 -90 Mean Annual Precipitation Oregon Cascades Portland Mt. Hood Eugene Dominant Rain Shadow: 1961 -90 Mean Annual Precipitation Oregon Cascades Portland Mt. Hood Eugene Dominant PRISM KBS Components Mt. Jefferson 2500 mm/yr Elevation 2200 mm/yr Terrain orientation rs Th ree te Sis Terrain steepness Sisters 350 mm/yr Moisture Regime Redmond N Bend PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1961 -90 Mean Annual Precipitation, Cascade Mtns, OR, USA PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 1961 -90 Mean Annual Precipitation, Cascade Mtns, OR, USA PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1961 -90 Mean Annual Precipitation, Cascade Mtns, OR, USA PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 1961 -90 Mean Annual Precipitation, Cascade Mtns, OR, USA PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA Flow Direction PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA Flow Direction PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Topographic Facets = 4 km PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 = 60 km Topographic Facets = 4 km PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 = 60 km

Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Oregon Annual Precipitation Max ~ 7900 mm 3452 mm Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Oregon Annual Precipitation Max ~ 7900 mm 3452 mm Full Model 3442 mm 4042 mm PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Max ~ 6800 mm

Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Max ~ 4800 mm 3452 mm 3442 mm 4042 Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Max ~ 4800 mm 3452 mm 3442 mm 4042 mm PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Facet Weighting Disabled

Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Oregon Annual Precipitation Max ~ 3300 mm 3452 mm Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Oregon Annual Precipitation Max ~ 3300 mm 3452 mm 3442 mm 4042 mm PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Elevation = 0

Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Oregon Annual Precipitation Max ~ 7900 mm 3452 mm Mean Annual Precipitation, 1961 -90 Oregon Annual Precipitation Max ~ 7900 mm 3452 mm Full Model 3442 mm 4042 mm PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Max ~ 6800 mm

PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Knowledge Base - Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, PRISM Knowledge Base - Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture index) Coastal Effects - PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Coastal Effects: 1971 -00 July Maximum Temperature Central California Coast – 1 km Sacramento Coastal Effects: 1971 -00 July Maximum Temperature Central California Coast – 1 km Sacramento Stockton San Francisco Oakland 34° Fremont San Jose Preferred Trajectories Elevation Coastal Proximity Oce an Santa Cruz 27° Pac ific 20° Monterey N PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Dominant PRISM KBS Components Salinas Inversion Layer Hollister

1961 -90 Mean July Maximum Temperature, Central California, USA Coastal Proximity Weighting OFF PRISM 1961 -90 Mean July Maximum Temperature, Central California, USA Coastal Proximity Weighting OFF PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Coastal Proximity Weighting ON

PRISM Knowledge Base - Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, PRISM Knowledge Base - Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture index) Coastal Effects Two-Layer Atmosphere and Topographic Index - PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

1971 -2000 January Temperature, HJ Andrews Forest, Oregon, USA TMAX-Elevation Plot for January Layer 1971 -2000 January Temperature, HJ Andrews Forest, Oregon, USA TMAX-Elevation Plot for January Layer 1 Layer 2 TMIN-Elevation Plot for January Layer 1 PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Layer 2

Mean Annual Precipitation, Hawaii PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Mean Annual Precipitation, Hawaii PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

United States Potential Winter Inversion PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 United States Potential Winter Inversion PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Western US Topographic Index PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Western US Topographic Index PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Central Colorado Terrain and Topographic Index Gunnison Terrain PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Gunnison Central Colorado Terrain and Topographic Index Gunnison Terrain PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Gunnison Topographic Index

January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado Gunnison Valley Bottom Elev = 2316 m Below Inversion January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado Gunnison Valley Bottom Elev = 2316 m Below Inversion Lapse = 5. 3°C/km T = -16. 2°C PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado Gunnison Mid-Slope Elev = 2921 m Above Inversion Lapse January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado Gunnison Mid-Slope Elev = 2921 m Above Inversion Lapse = 6. 9°C/km T = -12. 7°C PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado Gunnison Ridge Top Elev = 3779 m Above Inversion January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado Gunnison Ridge Top Elev = 3779 m Above Inversion Lapse = 6. 0°C/km T = -17. 9°C PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Inversions – 1971 -00 January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado N Taylor Park Res. Crested Inversions – 1971 -00 January Minimum Temperature Central Colorado N Taylor Park Res. Crested Butte -18° Elevation Topographic Index -13° Lake City PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Dominant PRISM KBS Components Gunnison -18°C Inversion Layer

PRISM 1971 -2000 Mean January Minimum Temperature, 800 -m “Banana Belt” e rd g PRISM 1971 -2000 Mean January Minimum Temperature, 800 -m “Banana Belt” e rd g aina r ai old C Snake PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Plain

Inversions – 1971 -00 July Minimum Temperature Northwestern California N c Pacifi Ocean Willits Inversions – 1971 -00 July Minimum Temperature Northwestern California N c Pacifi Ocean Willits Ukiah 9° Lake Pilsbury. 10° 17° Cloverdale Lakeport PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Cle 17° Elevation Inversion Layer Topographic Index ar La ke 12° 16° Dominant PRISM KBS Components Coastal Proximity

PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture index) - Coastal Effects - Two-Layer Atmosphere and Topographic Index - Orographic Effectiveness of Terrain (Profile) - PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

United Orographically Effective Terrain States Effective Terrain PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 United Orographically Effective Terrain States Effective Terrain PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08 Oregon Annual Precipitation PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture PRISM Knowledge Base Elevation Influence on Climate - Terrain-Induced Climate Transitions (topographic facets, moisture index) - Coastal Effects - Two-Layer Atmosphere and Topographic Index - Orographic Effectiveness of Terrain (Profile) - Persistence of climatic patterns (climatologically-aided interpolation) - PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Oregon Annual Precipitation Leveraging Information Content of High-Quality Climatologies to Create New Maps with Oregon Annual Precipitation Leveraging Information Content of High-Quality Climatologies to Create New Maps with Fewer Data and Less Effort Climatology used in place of DEM as PRISM predictor grid PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

PRISM Regression of “Climate vs Climate” or “Weather vs Climate” 20 July 2000 Tmax PRISM Regression of “Climate vs Climate” or “Weather vs Climate” 20 July 2000 Tmax vs 1971 -2000 Mean July Tmax PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Recent Projects - Updated 1971 -2000 mean monthly P, Tmax, Tmin maps for the Recent Projects - Updated 1971 -2000 mean monthly P, Tmax, Tmin maps for the US at 800 -m resolution (USDA-NRCS, NPS, USFS) - Spatial-Probabilistic QC system for SNOTEL observations (NRCS) - 1971 -2000 monthly precipitation climatologies for NW Oregon conditional on 700 -mb flow direction (NWS Western Region) - Extended monthly time series maps of P, Tmax, Tmin, Tdew for climate monitoring (USFS) PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08

Future Directions - Engage in collaborative projects to develop the use of PRISM and Future Directions - Engage in collaborative projects to develop the use of PRISM and PRISM climatologies for downscaling numerical weather prediction models - Continue to develop technology to move to smaller time steps and towards real time operation - Explore using remotely-sensed data to improve PRISM accuracy in under-sampled areas (and vice-versa) - Continue to develop PRISM’s Spatial Climate Knowledge Base PRISM Overview 5 -8 -08