The outputs of the conflict situation Unilateral actions

The outputs of the conflict situation Unilateral actions Joint action Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 1

Routes, approaches and methods for the solution of the conflict situation • In a situation of conflict, there are two ways of behavior: • - to try to resolve the conflict with the help of unilateral actions (steps), or • - through joint action with the partner, i. e. by means of negotiations and mediation procedures. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 2

Unilateral actions • In cases of unilateral steps, the participants did not coordinate their actions, and make decisions and act independently of each other. • Unilateral steps imply several variants: • - realization of winning one of the parties (an attempt to win); • - capitulation in front of the opponent; • - ignoring the conflict situation; • - treatment in the legal instances. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 3

An attempt to win • In an attempt to gain the victory the parties enter into a confrontation, the essence of which was well-expressed by Clausewitz: • “if the enemy is not surrender to our will, then we should put him in an even worse situation’’ • armed conflict, acts of terrorism, the economic blockade, the political means of pressure, etc. • History knows many cases when the winner and loser due to exhausting fighting were brought back for dozens of years in its development. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 4

An attempt to win • former Secretary of state of the United States. Kissinger said: • if one of the participants fully satisfied with the decision of a problem, it means that the other or others will be completely unsatisfied with it. • The interests and objectives of one of the parties in case of the victory of the other are unfulfilled. This leaves the issue unresolved, leads to dissatisfaction of the defeated side, which begins to look for opportunities for revenge Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 5

Capitulation • Capitulation involves the surrender of one of the parties to the conflict without providing any resistance. • This usually happens when the force of the parties clearly unequal, and the weaker party is inferior, to avoid the worst consequences for themselves. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 6

Ignoring the conflict situation • It is the result of inaction. The development of events in this case goes on without any interference from the party. Such an approach is no less dangerous. Here also worth quoting the words of Kissinger, who in an interview with Time magazine once remarked that: • -’’ If avoid solving problems, then it causes the crisis, and unmanaged crisis can turn into a disaster’’. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 7

Treatment in the legal instances • Or there are no rules, or they are changing • Not always equal to the interests of the parties • The court decision may not be changed • The court decision does not affect the nature of the relationship of the parties • Execution of decisions is of the limited nature • Legal instances can work only after appeal Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 8

Treatment in the legal instances International relations is not so centralized and structured, as the relations within individual States, therefore, execution of the judgments of the court has more limited, "punish" for failure to execute the decisions of the International Court of justice is quite difficult. • The international Court of justice does not have an automatic right to settle international disputes, and begins to act only then, when he is appealed to all parties to the conflict. • Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 9

Joint action • This way means the following: • the participants proceed from the fact that the contradiction between them, should be discussed and as a result of this discussion must be found to fix the problem. • That is the way of political settlement of the conflict. He suggests holding direct negotiations or talks with the help of a facilitator. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 10

Joint action • The decision, which shall be adopted by the parties at the talks, if they were agreed, there is always a joint decision, • In this case, the parties proceed from the fact that in the result of the discussion you can find a mutually acceptable solution, which is then consolidated legal documents (contracts and agreements, etc. ). Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 11

Choice of the peace management of the conflict • - The threat of mutual destruction (The classic example of this is the nuclear confrontation between the East and the West in the period of the "cold war“ (The concept of «nuclear deterrence» , MAD – «mutual assured destruction» ) • The existence of mutual restrictions in unilateral actions (joint action arises the question of the mutual trust of the parties to the conflict) Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 12

Choice of the peace management of the conflict • The joint search for ways of the peace management of the conflict will be more profitable than any unilateral action (demanding the high level of mutual trust) • A clear power asymmetry of the parties (The weak side is aware that defeat is imminent, and seeks to end the armed struggle) • Equality of forces of the participants (none of them can beat the other, ‘’keep the face’’) Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 13

Choice of the peace management of the conflict • The price of continuing the conflict becomes too high (The threat of mutual losses /profit will be less than the losses/US war in Vietnam, USSR war in Afghanistan; Equality of forces is a deadlock) • The shortage or exhaustion of resources (time of war should be planed) • Psychological and ideological factors (tightening of the armed actions, absence of the visible success at the front, decrease of the living standards of the population, General fatigue) Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 14

Choice of the peace management of the conflict • The reaction of other countries and international organizations acting with the condemnation of the conflict, especially if these countries and organizations are unanimous in their actions (Dayton talks) • activities of the Prime Minister of Ceylon (now Sri Lanka) Bandaranaike on the settlement of the conflict between Sinhalese and Tamils (1957 – 1959); • In the autumn of 1995 the Prime Minister of Israel Iskhak Rabin was killed ; He signed the agreement on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the middle East with the Palestine liberation Organization (PLO). Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 15

The search of joint solutions • Impossibility of the further continuation of the armed struggle is the only impetus for the rejection of it, but not yet the beginning of the search of joint solutions to problems. • Joint actions, i. e. negotiations aimed at finding a joint solution, start only when all the participants are convinced that they have no better alternative to negotiations. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 16

"BATNA" • American authors P. Fisher and Have. Juri introduced a special term "BATNA" (an abbreviation from the English "Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement") - the best alternative to a negotiated solution of (the agreement). Her absence, one of the main elements of the negotiation process. • Alternatives are carefully studied and developed, and often this is done in parallel with the negotiation process. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 17

The negotiation space • The negotiation space is an area of interest to both parties where they can start discussion and try to seek a possible solution (latest example – situation in Syria) • For the availability of the negotiating space is necessary to have such a situation where boundaries of permissible solutions overlap each other. If it is not exist, there is no way for the negotiating space Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 18

The negotiation space • Negotiations and armed struggle can go in parallel. Participants try to find a negotiation space using a possibility for BATNA. • Then settlement of the conflict becomes wavy and often protracted (take a long time). • (Examples include: the Paris negotiations on Vietnam, the negotiations on Nagorno. Karabakh, negotiations on Bosnia and Herzegovina) Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 19

The principles and phases of the conflict management • Settlement of the conflict in the majority of cases implies the principle of progressive realization. • It is an important precondition of the hole process. Attempts to go straight from an acute armed conflict to joint actions often lead to the fact, that the negotiations "fail". • The parties are not ready for joint decisions. As a result, a distrust of the negotiations as such and on the level of political leaders, and at the level of the masses. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 20

Graduate and Reciprocaded Initiatives in Tension Reduction - GRIT • GRIT - one of the participants of the conflict unilaterally proposes and implements initiatives aimed at reducing the tensions, expecting that the other party will answer the same. • The initiator has a chance to get a risk in a situation where the other party does not respond properly. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 21

The principle of synchronicity • The parties shall be simultaneously on one and the same phase of the negotiation process. • When one of them returns to the previous phase as a result of planned operations or actions of extremist forces, as a rule, and the other follows. As a result of violence is both a cause or, at least, the reason for the termination of initiated negotiations. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 22

The phases of the conflict management • In situations of armed conflict the principle of progressive realization means the passing of a number of phases, which differ in their goals. • • cessation of violent actions; • establishment of dialogue, preparation for negotiations; • the beginning of the negotiation process; • the implementation of the achieved agreements. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 23

Cessation of violent actions; • The main objective of the first phase - the reduction of the level of confrontation - is the prevention of further development of the conflict, stabilization of the situation, so that you can later go to the settlement of the relations. In this sense, this phase can be called – phase of stabilization. • The first steps in this phase assumes first of all the suspension of fighting, at least temporarily, in order to assess the situation. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 24

The establishment of dialogue, preparation for negotiations • The parties must move from attempting to implement unilateral solutions to the formulation and adoption of joint decisions, • it is first necessary to establish channels of communication allowing the participants to exchange information, points of view. • Therefore, the second phase can be defined as the phase of communication. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 25

Cessation of violent actions; The establishment of dialogue, preparation for negotiations • These first two phases are still not involve joint actions of the parties on the settlement of the conflict. • Nevertheless, their value is very high, and they require a lot of time and effort. • In most cases, modern international conflicts cause of their members most of the time spend on something to make the situation possible for the holding of negotiations, i. e. to create a negotiating situation. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 26

Importance of communication • The establishment of effective channels of communication, providing for the exchange of information, allows participants: • • to explain their actions; • • receive information on the actions of the opposite side; • • to discuss the prospects of settlement. • direct and indirect channels of communication are divided into formal and informal Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 27

How to form working relationship • American researchers R. Fisher and With. Brown identified six major elements of which are formed working relationships between the parties: • rationality, • understanding, • communication, • reliability, • absence of instructive tone, • openness for the perception of the other point of view. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 28

The beginning of the negotiation process • In the second phase, due establishing channels of communication and the formation of a working relationship, there is a search for negotiating space. • It provides for the transition to the discussion of the problem that caused the conflict, i. e. to the negotiations. That is the third phase of the settlement process, which is called - the phase of the beginning of the negotiation process. Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 29

The implementation of the achieved agreements • The last phase is to implement agreements. • In the conflict settlement process often fails due to the fact that the parties are unable or unwilling to fulfill its commitments • as a result of which a special problem, which may be marked by a fairly precise expression, owned by the American author of the G. Raife "settlement after settlement. " Morozov E. M. IIR MEPHI 30