The November 13, 2008 Shake. Out Exercise (GG’ 08) Threat to Roadway Lifelines: Mw 7. 8 on the Southern San Andreas Fault Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph. D. U. S. Geological Survey Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (So. SAFE) Project August 24, 2007 Caltrans Seismic Advisory Board Meeting Caltrans District 8 U. S. Department of the Interior U. S. Geological Survey Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans SAB report (Dec. 2003) Race to Seismic Safety “Are California’s roadways earthquake-safe? ” “Develop and implement actions that foster the rapid, effective, and economic response to and recovery from damaging earthquakes” Recomendation #7: Emergency Response: “Caltrans should maintain its rapid response capability to evaluate, repair and restore…” sections on fault rupture and ‘fling’ Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Shake. Out - San Andreas Mw 7. 8 Courtesy of Rob Graves, URS Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Short periods best from NGA combination Long periods best from physics-based simulation Courtesy of Ned Field and Nitin Gupta Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 Courtesy of Rob Graves
Caltrans special considerations Long-period structures such as bridges susceptible to distant long-period and sustained shaking Surface faulting where fault crosses freeways and major highways can damage roadway and engineered fills Caltrans is our first major Shake. Cast user - Loren Turner Intent is to test Shake. Out scenario through CISN Display as if a real earthquake has occurred, then use Shake. Cast to assess and prioritize shaking damage Caltrans has demonstrated commitment to reducing seismic vulnerability and is the best organization to lead monitoring of fault-crossing lifeline infrastructure (others private; data? ) Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
San Andreas - need to instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault crossings Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
FEMA report series (1991 -1992) Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Shake. Out Mw 7. 8 Surface Offsets SUBJECT TO REVISION (KMD v. 1. 1. 0; 5/12/07) Lifeline Crossing: Fault Slip (meters) Duration of Disruption (days) 0 (landslide - Pyramid) 15 Palmdale (Route 14) 2. 6 10 Cajon Pass (I-15) 4. 4 (low end of range) 35 (FEMA, 1991) Whitewater 1. 7 5 Indio (I-10) 7. 3 10 Gorman (I-5) Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans I-10 at Indio Fault slip of 7. 3 meters is expected; significant afterslip Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltrans I-10 and Rt. 62 Fault slip on each of 2 strands may be expected Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Cajon Pass lifelines Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Cajon Pass - critical lifeline crossing Currently USGS has no real-time seismic or GPS instrumentation at this location Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Cajon Pass I-15 Fault Crossing Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School Prototype GPS fault slip sensor Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California Need robust GPS at all key lifeline crossings Desirable to include seismic with GPS Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
San Andreas - need to at least instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings GPS & accelerometer arrays - no funding has yet been identified Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 for an operational system
Proposal - zipper array for early warning and immediate finite-fault source for San Andreas and San Jacinto fault ‘Big Ones’ IOC - 36 quadrilaterals shown @ 30 km spacing (shown) FOC - 100 quads @ 10 km spacing ($5 M init. + $1 M/yr) Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
So. SAFE is under way (SCEC paleoseismology) B 4 Li. DAR Project completed; data openly available SCEC funds distributed USGS NEHRP RFP deadline & NSF proposal preparations MW 7. 8 earthquake scenario has been specified http: //urbanearth. usgs. gov/ 3 levels of rupture description detail made available next-generation attenuation relation models done - to be input to HAZUS ground motion simulations in progress Slip at Lifelines Fault Crossings has been specified (v 1. 1. 0) economic modeling to be conducted workshops with lifeline operators (May & Oct. 2007) Multi-hazard triggered events to be included in the scenario Shake. Out exercise - November 13, 2008 @ 10: 00 a. m. - “GG 08” Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
What can I do to prepare my lifeline? Improve engineering at lifeline crossing points (retrofit and mitigate) to reduce down-time and to avert ecological and environment impacts Stockpile materials on-site that will be needed to make repairs quickly; develop a plan for repairs Instrumentation for automated damage assessment Alaska Pipeline: $3 M invested prior, >$100 M saved Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
Ken Hudnut DOI / U. S. Geological Survey 525 S. Wilson Ave. Pasadena, CA 91106 (626)583 -7232 Cell: (626)672 -6295 hudnut@usgs. gov Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007
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