THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED 01 November 2005 Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into Mission: improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED • Motivation • CTB Role • Framework – Infrastructure – Transition Projects & Science Priorities • Organization • 1 st CTB Annual Meeting – Objectives; Expected Outcome 2
MOTIVATION (Scientific) – NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise. – The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts. – Faster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to Faster improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications. – Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to accelerate the necessary improvements. accelerate 3
Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3. 4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04) 4
MOTIVATION (Programmatic) – In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. – The CTB will • provide more traction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal traction and visibility climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations; • provide an operational testing environment to support projects that operational testing environment result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations; • provide infrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, infrastructure and resources community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations. 5
CTB ROLE What does the CTB bring that’s genuinely new? – A Focus on Transition – A Means of Engagement for the research, operations and applications communities – A Mechanism for Distribution of Models & Data. 6
A FOCUS ON TRANSITION In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must define a process to: – Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities. – Identify and delineate different types of transition: • • – R 2 O: define where O picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs. O 2 A: define where A picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a “hand-off” from O occurs. Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions. 7
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process Research and Development 1 1. 2. 3. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2 3 4 Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. Operations 5 3. Systematic transition ste R 2 O. 4 4. Systematic transition steps O 2 A 5. 6. Delivery to diverse USER community 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process R 2 O N C E P 3 O 2 A 5 User Community 8
RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES (Pan et al. ) • The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps: – Model development and refinement – Preliminary assessment – Calibration – Interface with operations – Final skill assessment – Parallel tests – Approval • Roles of host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. • Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions. 9
OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES • The path for implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps: – – Assigning weights to each tool; – Systematic error correction – Specific output variables (T 2 m & precip for US; SST & Z 500 for global) – • Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts) Available in real-time Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O 2 A – Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server – Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts (energy, agriculture, H 2 O resources, fire Wx) • Roles of the operational center and the applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. • Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities to 10 ensure smooth transitions.
A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT • Collaboration with the climate community is key: – Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and Transition Project Teams; include private sector and international members – Expand collaborative transition projects (AO’s) – Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and Visiting Scientist Program – Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA line offices, other agencies and external stakeholders. 11
CTB FRAMEWORK • Infrastructure – Computing Support (1/3 rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer) – System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics) • Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators – Management and Administrative Staff • Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant • Transition Projects – Base (internally) Funded • Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less • FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices – Announcements of Opportunity • Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years • Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues • NOAA or external lead PIs • Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc) 14
CURRENT CTB RESOURCES • NCEP Contributions – Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer) – 23 Redirected FTEs • Management Team – 0. 5 (CPC) & 0. 25 (EMC) & 0. 25 (CPC) • System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0. 5 (EMC) • Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC) • NOAA Climate Program Office – Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY 05, FY 06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects. – CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY 06+) 15
CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSITION PROJECTS • Current (FY 05 and FY 06) – “Short Term plans” – Assessments of the Current Version of NCEP CFS/GFS – Objective Model Consolidation for Generating Official Forecasts – Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer; reproducibility tests) • Future (FY 07 +) – “Long Term plans” – Assessments of the Next (n+1) Version of NCEP CFS/GFS – Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System – Drought Monitoring and Prediction – Support NIDIS – Development of Regional Application Products (e. g. Energy, Agriculture, Water, Fire Wx) – Advanced Forecast Capabilities (e. g. Ecosystems; Air Chemistry; Carbon Cycle; Fisheries) 16
ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n+1) VERSION OF THE CFS/GFS • Possible Upgrades for the next (n+1) version of CFS/GFS are coming into focus: – Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS – Ocean: MOM 4 – Resolution: T 126 – Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble • Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of future changes to CFS/GFS are needed prior to implementation. • Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community. • Caveat: Less emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS in favor of the newer version(s). 17
DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM • NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy for a MM Ensemble Prediction System. • CTB can coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in S/I climate predictions and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC. “National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models: • • NCEP/CFS GFDL/CM 2 NASA/GEOS 5 NSF/CCSM • CTB can coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e. g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC). • The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure 18 smooth transitions.
ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM • CTB can promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing (oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric) reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally. • Benefits: – NOAA Can take full advantage of established CTB infrastructure (e. g. SAB, OB, teams, computer). – Can coordinate and provide resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader issues related to climate reanalysis that contribute to improved understanding of climate variability and change and enhance climate prediction. • Management: – Project Manager for Interagency Coordination and a Program Manager to coordinate reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies, and internationally. 19
DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION Proposal: Designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as t “Climate Process Team” for Land on the CTB Activities: • Couple Noah LSM to T 126 version of CFS; Calibrate • Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts • Development of a Drought Early Warning System. • Benefits: ü Coordinate with Operational Drought Monitoring and Prediction ü Support NIDIS ü Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan 20
CTB ORGANIZATION Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO Science Advisory Board Director Higgins (CPC) Deputies Program Manager Pan (EMC) & Gelman (CPC) Ji (OGP) Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS COLA IRI EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Test Bed Users 21
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB • Oversight Board (OB): – Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB activities. • Climate Science Team (CST): – Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access • Science Advisory Board (SAB): – Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e. g. , CLIVAR, GEWEX) • Complete To. R and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/ctb 22
CTB FY 05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS • Q 1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s) • Q 1 – CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004) Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams: Model parameterization, Model sensitivity Assessments Climate data assimilation (ocean and land) Multi-model ensembles Climate products and applications • Q 2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams) • Q 2 – Established OB, CST and SAB • Q 2 – Implemented CTB website • Q 2 – CTB To. R , “White Paper” and Transition to Operations Plan • Q 3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO 23
CTB MILESTONES (FY 06) • CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2 nd Draft) • Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available • Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer • Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server • Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information • Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system 24
CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY 07 -FY 11) • Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS • Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL) • Transition NASA model to CTB • Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB • Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA) • Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS 25
The CTB “Message” The NOAA CTB will: • Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions. • Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction. • Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications. • Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users. 26
1 st CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVES – Engage the community in a discussion of CTB progress and plans; – Discuss & improve the strategy for collaboration with the community; – Gather independent expert advice on future CTB science priorities. Overall Goal: to help focus the community towards the CTB mission and objectives 27
1 st CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA – Oral Sessions ( 6 -30 minute talks each) • Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS) (Mon AM) • Multi Model Ensembles (Mon PM) • Climate Forecasts and Applications (Tue AM) – Poster Session (Mon AM) – Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting (Mon PM) 28
EXPECTED OUTCOME – Independent expert advice on CTB FY 07+ Science Priorities (SAB written Summary Report) – Update CTB “Science Priorities and Transition Plan” (CTB Management) – CTB Annual Report (CTB Management) – Provide guidance to participating agencies and institutions 29
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