The Next Intifada Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in

The Next Intifada Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in the PA Media Presentation by Middle East Newsline, Montreal, Canada. www. menewsline. com

Abbas Urged to Renew Uprising • Pressure from Fatah • Pressure from Hamas • Pressure from Israel and U. S.

Pressure from Fatah • Poor Showing in Municipal Elections • Fear of Loss in PLC Elections • Preparing for Power Struggle

Pressure from Hamas • Emboldened by Election Results • Building a State Within a State • Preparing to Take Over Gaza after PLC Elections

Pressure from Israel, U. S. • Demand for PA Security Reform • Demand for Dismantling of Insurgency Groups • Demand for Democracy, Fiscal Transparency

Fear of Israeli Withdrawal • PA Can’t Impose Order on Gaza • Israel Could Seal Up Gaza • U. S. Would Support W. Bank Settlement Blocs

Bush Loses Credibility • President Seen as Close to Sharon • Concern Over Pro-Democracy Drive • Unable to Implement PA Security Reforms

Scenarios of Bush-Abbas Meeting • Bush Will Counsel Patience • President Will Push for PA Security Reform • Congress Will Block U. S. Aid Package

Uprising As Strategy • Insurgency Would Strengthen PA Position • Change U. S. Support for Israel • Wear Down Sharon’s Resolve

Options for Uprising • Mass Violence Against Israeli Troops • Attacks on Jewish Settlements • Provoke Massive Israeli Military Response

Immediate Results of Uprising • Delay PLC Elections and Fatah Loss • Strengthen Abbas and PA • Win International Support for Palestinians

Conclusion • Abbas Likely to Delay Uprising • Fatah, Hamas Prepare for Renewal of War • Gaza Strip to Serve as Launching Pad

Steve Rodan • editor@menewsline. com