The Next Arms Race A Presentation by Henry Sokolski Executive Director Nonproliferation Policy Education Center www. npolicy. org Alexander Hamilton Society George Mason University March 29, 2012
The Current Nuclear State of Play
Good News: Declining US/Russian Nuclear Deployments
The Hope Ahead: 1, 000 Warheads or Less on the Road to Zero (World with 1, 000 US operationally deployed warheads)
The Arms Control Work Ahead Fissile Material Control Treaty (FMCT) Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Additional New START agreements Sharing peaceful nuclear energy technology under proliferation controls
From U. S. Strategic Dominance to a Compressed Nuclear Crowd
2011: Potential Nuclear Break-out Stockpiles
From Two Nuclear-Capable Missile Countries to 27 1961 2011
Established Nuclear Power Programs 1961 – 3 countries 2011 – 31 countries
Our Proliferation Past and Present
What’s Next: More Nuclear Powered States, Mostly in Scary Places States Planning to Have Their First Nuclear Power Reactor by 2031 Countries shown in beige already have established nuclear power programs
Yamantau: Russia’s underground nuclear complex
Underground Great Wall in China
The Next Decade: Nuclear Uncertainties and Competitions
Our Proliferation Future?
Preventing the Worst 1. Take more concerted action alone, with out allies and friends, and with Russia to clarify and constrain China’s and other states’ offensive strategic military capabilities. 2. Encourage nuclear supplier states to condition the further export of civilian nuclear plants upon the recipient forswearing making nuclear fuel and opening their nuclear facilities to the latest, most intrusive, international nuclear inspection procedures. 3. Do more to reduce states’ access to surplus nuclear weapons and fissile material stockpiles that they could convert into bombs.
Sources SLIDE 6 : FROM U. S. STRATEGIC DOMINANCE TO A COMPRESSED NUCLEAR CROWD Russia and the U. S. State Department Fact Sheet, June 1, 2011 Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Hans M. Kristensen, “Tac Nuke Numbers Confirmed? ” FAS Strategic Security Blog UK, France, India, Pakistan, China Pakistan’s Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War (Chapter 6: “Fissile Materials in South Asia and the Implications of the U. S. -India Nuclear Deal” by Mian et al. , ) Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Arms Control Association SIPRI Yearbook 2011 Federation of American Scientists Israel Arms Control Association Fissile Material Stockpiles and Production, 2008, Alexander Glaser and Zia Mian Frank Barnaby, The Invisible Bomb: The Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East (I. B. Tauris, London, 1989); and M. Vanunu, Interviews with Barnaby, September 1986. “Air Force Report: The Third Temple’s Holy of Holies: Israel’s Nuclear Weapons by Warner Farr, LTC, U. S. Army” (Sept. 1999) The Sampson Option by Seymor Hersh Brower, Kenneth S. , “A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East, ” Jane's Intelligence Review, Special Report no. 14, (February 1997), 14 -15.
Sources Continued SLIDE 7: 2011: POTENTIAL NUCLEAR BREAK-OUT STOCKPILES Global Fissile Material Report, 2011 SLIDE 8: FROM TWO NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILE COUNTRIES TO 27 Arms Control Association, “Worldwide Ballistic Missile Inventories” available from http: //www. armscontrol. org/factsheets/missiles. SLIDE 11: THE NEXT DECADE: NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTIES AND COMPETITIONS China William Wan, “Georgetown Students Shed Light on China’s Underground Missile System for Nuclear Weapons, ” The Washington Post, November 29, 2011 Hans Kristensen, “No, China Does Not Have 3, 000 Nuclear Weapons, ” FAS Strategic Security Blog, December 3, 2011, http: //www. fas. org/blog/ssp/2011/12/chinanukes. php Robert Burns, “US Weighing Steep Nuclear Arms Cuts, ” Associated Press, February 14, 2012, http: //www. boston. com/news/nation/washington/articles/2012/02/14/ap_newsbreak_us_weighing_ste ep_nuclear_arms_cuts/ SLIDE 14: OUR PROLIFERATION PAST AND PRESENT Henry D. Sokolski, “Nuclear 1914: The Next Big Worry, ” in Henry Sokolski, ed. , Taming the Next Set of Strategic Weapons Threats, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, May 2006, p. 44, available from http: //www. npolicy. org/thebook. php? bid=8.
Sources Continued SLIDE 12: OUR PROLIFERATION FUTURE Henry D. Sokolski, “Nuclear 1914: The Next Big Worry, ” in Henry Sokolski, ed. , Taming the Next Set of Strategic Weapons Threats, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, May 2006, p. 45, available from http: //www. npolicy. org/thebook. php? bid=8.
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