The Next 20 Years by John Edmiston for

The Next 20 Years by John Edmiston for Biola Digital The Next 20 Years

The Big Changes

Digital Mega-Trends • • The Internet has moved from computers to “devices” People want to “own” content not just read it. Billions entering from the developing world Niches: Languages, cultures, local searches, zip codes Still many low-tech areas / people simplicity Validation online comes before interaction offline Everything will begin online! (Even offline ministry) Social networks integrated with everything online and offline to create a vast pool of opinion and “mood” • Information online, relationships offline • Discipleship via real-time interaction / chat • •

The Immediate Future • Currently 2. 3 billion Internet users and about 6 billion mobile phone subscribers and increasing 3 G penetration average 18% ranging between 87% (Japan) to 4% (Philippines) • Almost universal coverage by 2015 mostly on mobile devices • Africa will open up as fiber-optic cable is rolled out and French & Arabic sites will grow greatly • 1 billion plus “Internet new users” to come online as 3 G rolls out and as connectivity efforts such as O 3 B take effect. • FM and even short-wave radio chips in mobile phones may lead to a resurgence of short-wave radio on mobile devices. DRM (Digital Radio Mondiale) chip. HUGE gospel opportunity & prayer point for Christian broadcasters. • However there will still be a big need for simple technologies for the last, least and lost, and those in very remote areas and for educational computer centers and icafes.

Devices Will Dominate • Internet now includes many “non-computer” devices • 5 billion internet connected devices now, 22 billion by 2020 – will include TVs, cars, phones, e-readers, tablets, computers, peripherals, machine-to-machine connections etc. • Content needs to be able to go from device to device • Distributed – same content on many different devices – format wars for the foreseeable future, need to be able to convert content into many different formats. • USB 3. 0 and Intel’s new Light Peak technology will enable v. fast data transfer (3 to 10 GB/sec +) between devices • Unlocked, free & out-of-copyright content (e. g. Matthew Henry’s commentary) will be preferred in majority world • Mega. Voice and other MP 3 players for developing nations • Solar-powered and easily recharged devices preferred

The Big Numbers

Acknowledgement • The next few slides are extracted from a wonderful 112 slide presentation by Mary Meeker which you an find online at: http: //www. businessinsider. com/marymeekers-latest-incredibly-insightfulpresentation-about-the-state-of-the-web 2012 -5#-1

The Big Shake-Up!

You Can…. You can get saved online You can get discipled online via Skype Go to church online & find great sermons online Study and do your theological degree online Meet a Christian wife/husband online Get ordained online and become a Reverend Start an online ministry & get 501 c 3 status for it Write a print-on-demand book and also get it on Kindle and become famous…. • Send money to orphans in Africa by Paypal and • Have an online bible college and issue diplomas • Without ever going to a local church. • •

The Big Strategies

Keep It Simple • Most people hate technology but will have to use it and they don’t want to feel confused, helpless or stupid so keep it simple and helpful. • Billions of new users: High usability / clarity / support • Customer service will be a winning factor esp. as new users and seniors come online. • Live chat ( the text chat box on websites) will be very popular. People want instant interaction with you! • Some of the “old will become new” : email, search, straight text web pages, chat rooms, IM and easy to use download sites etc. You must connect with their Inbox, FB page or Google / Bing (the 3 places they will go to)

Devices Will Dominate • Internet now includes many “non-computer” devices • 5 billion internet connected devices now, 22 billion by 2020 – will include TVs, cars, phones, e-readers, tablets, computers, peripherals, machine-to-machine connections etc. • Content needs to be able to go from device to device • Distributed – same content on many different devices – format wars for the foreseeable future, need to be able to convert content into many different formats. • USB 3. 0 and Intel’s new Light Peak technology will enable v. fast data transfer (3 to 10 GB/sec +) between devices • Unlocked, free & out-of-copyright content (e. g. Matthew Henry’s commentary) will be preferred in majority world • Mega. Voice and other MP 3 players for developing nations • Solar-powered and easily recharged devices preferred

Language & Location • People search on websites within their own language universe • As new areas get connected HUGE opportunities to be among the first websites in a minority language • Be Unicode / UTF-8 capable • Local search: 20%-30%+ of all searches contain a city or zip code • 7% of searches contain a map. • Have your zip code, address and Map. Quest info on your main index page • Join local social networks and get a “feel” for your city /urban networks • Relate to GPS equipped devices!! • Top Ten Internet Languages • The importance of local search • Small business and local search • Local search statistics

Facebook & Culture • In Asia Facebook penetration is only 5% despite rapid Internet adoption • In USA it is 49. 9%, Australia 40% most other places 28% (except Africa) • Privacy concerns and social honor (“face”) concerns limit penetration in Asia

The Power of E-pinion • Social networks, ratings & reviews will define credibility: “ 93 of your friends like Bro. Joe’s Ministry”. • People validate a product / person /doctrine online first • Recommendations Website Purchase / Action • Social network Content Site Response / Form • Under-promise and over-deliver: meet expectations so you always get 4 star to 5 star ratings • Avoid failure /disappointment, do not launch until ready. One disappointed person can blog/tweet/FB you into oblivion. • Build a brand, a following, people who will blog, tweet and FB message about you. Create passionate fans of your ministry and get them to post rave reviews.

Online Before Offline • Things begin ONLINE before they become OFFLINE • People search online then buy locally. The decision of what to buy (including church) is made on the Internet • People search for a church, bible college, Christian concert online before actually attending – the process begins online • Recruitment happens via Facebook and social networks • Doctrinal questions & answers to personal problems are now investigated online FIRST before asking the pastor, • The Internet is no longer a tool which is used to increase offline “brick and mortar” ministries, instead it is the ocean in which all ministry (both online and offline) must either sink or swim.

The Future Is DEPTH! • The Internet presents deep, specialized information well and can supplement Church by tackling sensitive, personal, controversial or highly theological topics. • The Internet will provide the solid content side of discipleship (Truth) while the Church provides the affective and relational / cultural context (Love / Grace) • Online education for church members (say via Moodle) • Leadership & stewardship training modules online • “Ask the pastor” online forums using Simple Machines Forum • Discipleship curriculum that people move through at their own pace in easy, ordered stages • Specialized prayer communities online • Church FAQ – the 100 most asked questions (Cain's wife etc)

Downloads For Devices • • • • Think DOWNLOADS not pages Think PRODUCTS not donations Turn articles into EBOOKS Turn blogs into MP 3 s / Podcasts Transfer-ability / Portability Viral / Interesting / Useful Multi-platform / Great Content Use file-sharing culture for God Follow-up a contact with a link to a download, even on FB PRC / Kindle, Mobi, Android applications PDF, Power. Points, zipped HTML Torrents, Videos Use other people’s bandwidth Useful Programs • How to create Torrent files • µTorrent • Audacity (for MP 3 files) Tutorials / Links • Building Android apps • Android developers guide • W 3 schools • How to create an i. Phone web app

Internet Radio / TV • The success of Hulu, You. Tube, Live 365 etc. • Internet radio should equal conventional radio in Nth. America by 2016: stats here • IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) is beginning to get some traction • Specialized programming is the key – offer something that generic bland local commercial radio does not offer but which still has fans • Get listed in the specialized search engines, directories, Itunes, You. Tube etc • Create a fan page on FB for your content • Icecast (MP 3 server software for Internet radio) • Shoutcast • Live 365 radio stations • Starting an internet radio station • i. Tunes podcasts, • How to submit a podcast to i. Tunes • Podcast Alley • Livestream. com (launch your own free Internet TV channel) • Any Video Convertor Free • Creating a You. Tube channel

Ebooks & P. O. D. • Ebook sales up 200%+ in 2010 from 1. 5% to 5% of market, start of take-off in adoption Next Big Thing…. • Turn your articles into PDF file ebooks and thus into products • Hard copy format via a print-on-demand publisher • Order goes straight to the print-on- demand publisher who then sends the book out to the customer (as little as one copy) , you don’t have to worry about inventory, shipping etc. Don’t have to go through mainline publisher editorial acceptance/ rejection process • Often 30% author royalty • Great for manuals/ textbooks/ course material/ seminars and specialized theological / missiological topics • Create. Space (Amazon) • Lightning Source • Xulon Press (Christian) • List of P. O. D publishers • Mobi. Pocket Creator • Calibre Ebook Converter

Webinars, Conferencing & LMS • Webinars are now a standard industry training tool and bandwidth is now sufficient for many end-users to benefit from them. • Much more user-friendly and affordable • Desktop sharing of files, Power. Points etc. • Huge potential for personal evangelism, discipleship, apologetics, question and answer format etc. • Leadership meetings and even church board meetings! • Project presentations & fundraising • Free conference calls • Talking Communities (Christian) • Go. To. Meeting • Microsoft Live Meeting • Web. Ex • Moodle (LMS w. plugins) • DEScribe (simple LMS)

Chatty Discipleship • Chat/ Group Chat/ Instant messaging / Skype is becoming a preferred tool for serious discipleship issues and discussions • Combine with Google docs that can be edited collaboratively as they I. M. • Small group size is good for team meetings, prayer groups, discipleship groups • Some debate about security but seems generally moderate to OK. • • Skype Oovoo (video chat) Google docs Pidgin (Instant messaging) Digsby (I. M. ) Miranda (I. M. ) Meebo (web based I. M. ) Groupboard (web-based free group chat plus whiteboard for your website or server) • Chat 4 Support (commercial) • Strong. DC++ (live chat + files)

Email & SMS • Most of the Next Billion will start by using: a) email and b) SMS text especially on smartphones at least until the web surfing experience improves. • We must move from the known to the unknown and deliver solutions that they can intuitively use (at first) • A revival of simple email based solutions e. g email based distance education (e. g. 1990 s) • Email to text (and vice versa) as a follow-up tool • Egroups / lists / discussions • PDF & HTML attachments • • Gammu SMS gateway (free) Text Magic (email to SMS) Mailman (email list manager) Mail. Chimp. com Email templates in Gmail HTML Emails with CSS Creating HTML email PDF Creator

“Last Mile Technologies” • Encrypted USB drives and SD cards • Internet on an intranet, rig up a couple of 1. 5 Tb HDD containing a mini. Internet / document library to a server in a computer center • Thin clients in a computer center running via LTSP • Store and forward email via ham radio (HF radio) • Asynchronous technologies – lists, discussion boards, Simple. Machines • Poodle – portable moodle and other portable apps • Harvestime “bible college in a box” instant institute. • • • Poodle True. Crypt USB encryption MAF products Portable. Apps. com LTSP Thin client icafes Harvestime (2 yr bible college) Simple Machines Forum Email Relay Store and forward email via HF CRMF (Papua New Guinea) Faith Comes by Hearing

Questions To Ask • Which platforms can we be on and excel in? (web, mobile, internet radio, IPTV…) • What devices can we be on? Which formats? • What languages can we be in? • Which niches can we occupy? • How can we reach the billions of new users? • How can we create simple, positive, un-confusing user experiences and give world-class real-time support? • Which social networks should we be part of? • How can we “amaze” these social networks? • What are our downloads / products? • Where are our discipleship conversations happening? • How can we multiply / leverage our very best content? • Who are we leaving out? (That we can reasonably include. . . )

Some Big, Hairy Guesses…

The Connected Transhuman • • • Always connected Chipped, Implanted, Data-Streamed Genetically engineered Extra or enhanced bodily senses Constant virtual reality Nootropic (mental) acuity from pharmaceuticals Blend of man, machine and data Always tracked by GPS Transactions via swiping and hand gestures

Massive Data / Personalized Data • The Internet NOW knows you better than you know yourself and remembers your friends, your birthday, your tastes in music, clothing and articles, knows what you browse, and knows approximately what you know. • Soon about 200+ private companies will literally know EVERYTHING about EVERYONE and will sell this information to any buyer even including repressive regimes.

Governments Will Be Consumers • The Market will become far more powerful than governments which will become mere consumers of data, money, loans, innovation and of commodities such as oil. • Security will become increasingly digital and increasingly commercial and companies such as Glimmer. Glass and Intrusion will have more intelligence capacity than governments and national security will be almost totally corporatized.

Politicians Will Be Totally Owned By Companies In The Digital Space • As E-Pinion increases in power electability will be a function of the politicians’ digital image • The power to validate a politician will belong in the power of a handful of digital reputation companies such as Twitter, Facebook, Google and their successors.

Opting Out Will Possibly Be Lethal • The Market will require total knowledge of you and will control everything from your food to your pharmaceuticals. • Removing a person’s digital identity will be tantamount to making sustaining life difficult or even totally impossible

Contact Details John Edmiston Chairman & CEO of Cybermissions www. cybermissions. org www. globalchristians. org Email: digitalopportunities@gmail. com Skype ID : johnedmiston Ph: +1 -310 -549 -6791 (Carson, CA - USA)