THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM MMS Tools for the

THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models

MODELING ISSUES • Increasing complexity of problems • Increasing need for multidisciplinary approaches • Continued advances in science and computer technology • New data resources • No universal models

STARTING POINTS • There are no universal models • Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness • Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application

Modeling Conundrum • Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results • Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others

TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS • • • Research Model Developer Complex Detail Application Model Developer Model User Resource Manager Policy Maker Condensed Analysis

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN • • • Single Purpose PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS Multi-objective, Complex • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN • • • PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN Modules should • relate directly to real world components or processes • have input and output variables that are measurable values • communicate solely via these input and output variables Reynolds J. F. , and Acock, B. , 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7 -16

MODEL BUILDING TOOL - XMBUILD

SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS • USGS – – – PRMS DAFLOW 1 -D Sediment Transport (beta) MODFLOW WEBMOD WETMOD • OTHER – TOPMODEL – Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt) – Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS) – ENNS Model (modified HBV, Austria) • IN DEVELOPMENT – – PRMS-MODFLOW-DAFLOW-Unsat. Zone Sacramento Model (NWS) PHREEQC, OTIS, OTEQ, AHM (QW models) RZWQM, RUSLE, SWAT, Generic Crop (ARS Ag models)

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN • • • PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling

PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone Model (Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR) Streamflow

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN • • • PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS MMS Model Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model Off-the-shelf Model Database Data Management Interface (DMI)

LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model MMS Model Off-the-shelf Model Database Data Management Interface (DMI) Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

MULTI-MODEL CONTROLLER

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN • • • PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Recreation Watershed and River Systems Management Program Municipal & Industrial Irrigation Hydropower Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues. Riparian Habitat Endangered Species

River. Ware – Lower Colorado River

Upper Gunnison DSS Hydromet Real-time climate data feed DMI Hydrologic Database DMI River. Ware DMI Reservoir and River System Operations Model MMI Object User Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models

WARSMP BASINS YAKIMA CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL SACRAMENTO TRUCKEE CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL GUNNISON SAN JOAQUIN SAN JUAN RIO GRANDE IN DEVELOPMENT WARSMP RELATED IN DEVELOPMENT, MMS PLUS

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN • • • PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS • ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS Currently Available Statistical and Graphical Analyses Parameter Optimization Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Beta Testing Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Visualization

GIS WEASEL

DIGITAL DATABASES (1 km 2 resolution) Vegetation Type (USFS) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)

STATSGO - Soils Data, 1 km 2 (USDA)

AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

Forecast Methodologies - Historic data as analog for the future Point measures (ESP) Radar data (NEXRAD) - Synthetic time-series using regional info - Atmospheric model output Statistical Downscaling Dynamical Downscaling

3 -D Visualization

CURRENT FOCUS ISSUES IN MMS DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION • • • Coupling of SW and GW Models A Priori Parameter Estimation Incorporation of Remotely Sensed Data Coupling of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Models Improved Hydrologic and Ecosystem Process Simulation • Integrated Analysis and Support Tools

PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone Model (Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR) Streamflow

A Priori Parameter Estimation Hydrologic Landscape Units Selected Basins

Sleepers River, Vermont USGS Trout Lake, Wisconsin Panola Mountain, Georgia Loch Vale, Colorado WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM Luquillo, Puerto Rico

FOCUS ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED THROUGH COLLABORATIVE MULTIDISCIPLINARY EFFORTS

UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION University of Arizona NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) NASA funded -- Southwest Regional Earth Science Applications Center -- Integration of remotely sensed data University of Colorado NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts

NRCS Streamflow Forecast Points (1200)

INTEGRATED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) • US Geological Survey • Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany • US Agricultural Research Service (ARS) • US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

U. S. MULTI-AGENCY MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING (http: //www. iscmem. org) Facilitates cooperation in R&D of multi-media environmental models, frameworks, and databases for use in human and environmental health risk assessment • Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) • Army Corp of Engineers (COE) • US Geological Survey (USGS) • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) n n Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Department of Energy (DOE) US Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

MMS International Collaboration • Public Works Research Institute, Japan • Korean Water Resources Corp. , South Korea • Chinese Academy of Sciences, Geography and Natural Resources Institute, Beijing • Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany • University of Bodenkultur, Vienna, Austria • International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

SUMMARY • Toolbox approach to model and system development • Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems • Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs • Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology

POINT “A fool with a tool is still a fool. ” Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul System Development magazine

PRECIPITATION - RUNOFF MODELING PROJECT OPEN SHOP CONSULTATION COLLABORATION

MORE INFORMATION http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/mms http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/weasel http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/warsmp http: //oms. gpsr. colostate. edu http: //wwwbrr. cr. usgs. gov/projects/ SW_precip_runoff/papers