The Model Web for Ecological Forecasting Gary Geller Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA USA 22 September 2007 GEOSS Climate Change Workshop Boulder, CO
The Modeler’s Dilemma Its hard to make predictions, particularly about the future How can predictive capabilities be improved?
Solutions • Improve existing models or • Create new models or • Increase model interoperability
Solutions • Improve existing models or • Create new models or • Increase model interoperability Model Web
Typical Questions for Ecological Forecasting q As the climate changes, can rare species X still exist within my park in 2057? q What are the implications of climate change for the frequency and intensity of fire within my park? q I need to restore part of my park: which management option is best?
Model Web: 5 -10+ Year Vision (1/2) q Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors) q Data format and terminology issues resolved q Scope includes physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes
Model Web: 5 -10+ Year Vision (2/2) q Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards q Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently q Web access provided to researchers, managers, public…
Model and Data Space Model A Model G Model B Dataset 1 Model C Dataset 3 Model D Dataset 2 Model F Dataset 4 Model E
CC and Species Distribution As the climate changes, can rare species X still exist within my park in 2057? TOPS Regional Climate Model Fire Model Landscape Model Niche Model Species distribution G E O S S Global Climate Model
Initial Demonstration System TOPS Regional Climate Dataset GEOSS Biodiversity IP 3 project Niche Model Species distribution G E O S S Global Climate Dataset
System Growth TOPS Regional Climate Dataset G E O S S Global Climate Dataset Fire Model Niche Model Species distribution
System Growth Fire risk, Intensity, etc TOPS Regional Climate Dataset Possible Landscapes Fire Model Landscape Model Niche Model Species distribution G E O S S Global Climate Dataset
Model and Data Space Model A Model G Model B Dataset 1 Model C Dataset 3 Model D Dataset 2 Model F Dataset 4 Model E
REAL Model and Data Space
Portal Concepts q Anyone can set up a portal • Decide what questions to address • Decide what models to use • Understand topic q Provides an “answer”… • But is not an automated “Decision Support System” • A source of information
Next Steps q Build demonstration system q Continue to explore the concept • Talk more with GEOSS, modelers, users… q Address interoperability barriers
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