THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT EVALUATING LONG-TERM

THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED GROWTH AND HARVEST SIMULATION Thomas Treiman – Missouri Department of Conservation John Dwyer – University of Missouri David Larsen – University of Missouri

The MOFEP Project Evaluate the outcomes of three silvicultural management regimes: q Even-aged harvesting q Uneven-aged harvesting q No harvest

Analysis Tools: LMS

Starting from the first *… inventory Treatment No harvest EAM UAM Initial Value Volume N 5, 723 $884 185 (2, 553) (424) 5, 946 $910 207 (2, 584) (414) 5, 365 $819 198 (2, 376) “Value” = volume X price (372) Adjusted for species and inflation. * Thanks to Randy!

P. S. Yes – this data IS on the web site!!

Grow (Project), Treat (Harvest) and Analyze MOFEP Stands

Treatments based on the “official” MOFEP schedule Year Total Stands EAM Harvest EAM Thinning UAM Harvest 1997 151 33 60 58 2012 146 30 62 54 2027 140 36 58 46 2042 159 32 69 58 2057 145 29 62 54 2072 139 28 65 46 2087 151 33 60 58 and, so, inflexible.

Calculate the present value of future harvests Net present value (NPV) is based on timber volume (quantity), price (in current dollars) and the discount rate. where n = 1, 2, 3, 4. . N are the species harvested t = 1, 2, 3, 4. . T are the time periods (years) when harvests are scheduled d is the discount rate pnt is the price per unit of species n in year t qnt is the quantity of species n in year t

Issues: What interest rate to use for discounting (D)? n Differential logging costs? Timber prices? n What about damage due to re-entry? n What about the residual stand? n What about risk and uncertainty? n What about non-market values? n

Compare financial outcomes Treatment Harvest Vol. Residual $ Vol. Totals $ Vol. No harvest 0 $0 9, 001 $1, 312 7, 125 $1, 094 2, 941 $455 2, 928 $465 6, 608 $973 EAM UAM 9, 001 $ $1, 312 (3, 193. 5) (462. 4) 10, 066 $1, 549 NPV $10 185 (3. 5) $1, 438 $320 207 (3, 673. 5) (576. 2) (335. 6) 9, 536 N $263 198 (3, 379. 9) (504. 3) (297. 1)

Sensitivity analysis for Discount Rate Treatment No harvest EAM UAM Discount Rate 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% N $485 $181 $68 $26 $10 $4 $2 185 (170. 9) (63. 8) (24. 1) (9. 2) (3. 5) (1. 4) $916 $617 $462 $375 $320 $284 $258 207 (415. 6) (366. 2) (346. 5) (338. 4) (335. 6) (335. 2) (336. 0) $753 $477 $356 $296 $263 $241 $226 198 (351. 1) (324. 5) (312. 5) (303. 4) (297. 1) (293. 1) (290. 1) (0. 5)

Conclusions n n n No significant financial difference, for the long-term one-hundred year period, between UAM and EAM. Re-entry? EAM impacts more acres with heavy equipment traffic. What’s the “cost”? Need to include other uses such as recreation or non-traditional forest products, and non-consumptive uses, such as bequest to future generations, and amenity values, such as scenic beauty.

Where now? Further research on non-market values (Human Dimensions) n Wait for the next harvest and: n – Compare actual vs. predicted – Price trends – Logging costs

Thanks! Questions?