The lay of the land Oslo its aftermath

The lay of the land Oslo, its aftermath, and political players in 21 st century Palestine. Israel

What happened after the 1 st Intifada? Ø Palestinians & Israelis come to the negotiation table for the 1 st time. Why? Ø Gulf War Ø End of Cold War Ø Intifada Ø 1991 Madrid negotiations Ø 1993 & 1995 Oslo Accords

Main tenets of the Oslo Accords Ø Interim settlement NOT a final agreement Ø PLO recognizes Israel’s “right to exist” and forswears use of violence Ø Israel allows creation of Palestinian National Authority under leadership of the PLO to govern some parts of the Occupied Territories in some administrative & economic spheres. Ø Total territory transferred to sole Palestinian control is 3 -4% of the West Bank & Gaza.

Oslo Accords: Control over Land Ø Palestinians get self rule for the 1 st time in their history, but highly circumscribed. Ø Land in the Occupied Territories divided into 3 zones Area A zones: full PA civil and security control Area B zones: PA civil control, Israeli military & security control Area C zones: Israeli civil and security control Ultimately gave PA control over most of the territories’ population but only over about 5 % of land Ø Israel retains right to patrol all borders & control airspace Ø Israeli military, Jewish settlers, and Israeli citizens retain all rights to enter all territories Ø Ø

Oslo Accords: Land

Source: Foundation for Middle East Peace

Return to Conflict Ø End of Oslo process Ø 1995 Assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by Israeli assassin Ø Palestinian bombings within Israel Ø 1996 Election of more conservative Israeli government (Netanyahu) Ø Second Palestinian Intifada (Al Aqsa Intifada), 2000 -2004 Ø 2001 election of Ariel Sharon What were the underlying causes of the collapse of the Peace Process?

Al Aqsa intifada: Underlying Grievances Failure of Oslo Accords (1993 -1995): Stalled peace process Israeli Settlements Area occupied by settlements doubled between 1992 and 1999 Around 480, 000 settlers in the WB and Jerusalem (about 9 -10% of WB population today) 56 new settlements established in 2002 -2003. 140 -180 settlements total in the WB and Gaza Bypass roads Poor and autocratic PA administration Economic suffering

Pal. Repertoires Who Hamas Carried out about 50% suicide bombings Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades Militant wing of Fatah About 25% suicide bombings Islamic Jihad How: Urban warfare Armed attacks on army posts, Israeli settlements Military equipment: light arms, hand grenades, remotecontrolled landmines, Qassam rockets. Suicide bombings Clashes at checkpoints between young Palestinian men and soldiers Above, Rescue workers aid a woman injured in a 2002 Tel Aviv bombing that killed 22 people and injured more than 100. Both Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Brigades claimed responsibility.

Israeli Responses Reoccupation of PA cities Aerial and land attacks on Palestinian communities Hundreds of Palestinians killed Destruction of houses 2001 -2005: 666 houses destroyed as punitive measure (not in course of combat) Cessation announced Feb. ’ 05. Assassinations 329 Palestinians killed by Israelis through assassination attempts (213 actually targeted) Hamas leaders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi assassinated Curfews & checkpoints 27 permanently staffed checkpoints in West Bank plus 26 on Green Line Separation barrier (wall) Begun June 2002 Israeli tanks move into Ramallah, 2002. Photos: BBC

Al-Aqsa Intifada: fatalities (9/29/2000 -02/2006) 684 Israeli civilians, including 118 minors, killed by Palestinians. 309 members of the Israeli security forces killed by Palestinians 3, 331 Palestinians, including 643 minors, killed by Israeli security forces. 41 Palestinians, including 3 minors, killed by Israeli civilians. 169 Palestinians killed by other Palestinians for suspected collaboration with Israel (Source: B’Tselem)

Initial results Kept the conflict in the news (especially by al Jazeera TV) Substantial shift to the right in Israeli public opinion New narrative of non-possibility of negotiated peace Rhetoric of demonization from both Palestinians and Israelis (“no partners in peace”) 50% Palestinian unemployment (up dramatically since 2000) 65% of Palestinians classified as below poverty line Wide critiques of PA PA inability to provide strategy for resistance

Israel: basic characteristics Highly centralized (unitary) Knesset (parliament) 120 seats PR system, closed list, 2% threshhold Hierarchical (leadership-driven) politics “Porous” boundaries between defense and legislative branches, and legislative and religious institutions Key interest groups: Military (IDF) and religious establishment Strong and independent Supreme Court, but family law under separate religious courts Ethnic hierarchy (“ethnocracy? ”) Re-conceptualizing Israel and the PA: one regime or two?

Israel: Key Players U. S. Generals PM Cabinet Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) High Court of Justice President Knesset Rabbinical Establishment Shas NRP-Nat Union Likud Kadima Labor United Arab List PA/Fatah/ Hamas

Palestinian National Authority (PA) Appoints PM & cabinet Prime Minister & cabinet President Directly elected by people Mixed electoral system: 50% by PR 50% by plurality Palestinian Legislative Council * 132 members Basic Law (serves as constitution) A general view over Al Manara roundabout adorned with posters for the electoral campaign one day before the legislative elections, in the West Bank town of Ramallah January 24, 2006. (MAANnews/Charlotte de Bellabre

Recent events Ø Nov 2004 Arafat dies Ø Aug-Sept 2005 unilateral Israel disengagement from Gaza Ø Israeli assassinations and airstrikes against Hamas and Gaza; Palestinian rocket attacks in Israel Ø Fatah/Hamas ceasefire towards Israel 2005 -2006 Ø Jan 2006 Hamas victory in PA Legislative elections Ø June 2007 Battle of Gaza Ø Gaza and W. Bank de facto divided into two entities Ø Emergency government in PA Ø 2007 -2008 Israel embargo on Gaza Ø strictly limits exports to Gaza & seals borders (Jan 2008) Ø Critical shortages of fuel medicine, food, supplies in Gaza Ø Jan 2008 Palestinian breaching of Gaza-Egypt wall Ø Israeli attack on Gaza, Dec/Jan 2008 -2009

Casualties 2005 -Dec 26 2008 Ø Palestinians killed by Israeli sec. forces in OT and Israel, 4861 Ø# of minors: 956 ØPal’s killed by Israeli civilians: 47 ØIsraeli civilians killed by Pal’s in OT and Israel: 727 Ø# of minors: 123 ØIsraeli soldiers killed: 335 ØPalestinians killed by Pals: 594 Casualties in 2008 -2009 Gaza Attack Ø 1, 100 -1, 400 Pal’s killed Ø 300 -900 civilians; 100 -400 minors Ø 13 Israelis ØSource: UN, B’Tselem