The International Polar Year 2007 -08 A Canadian

The International Polar Year: 2007 -08 A Canadian Marine/Panarctic Perspective - in 5 Easy Pieces Grant Ingram

The 5 PIECES of an Arctic/Marine Programme • • • To be connected to the global climate system To examine the disposition of freshwater To have a Pan-Arctic perspective To focus on margins & shelf/basin exchange To have Social Relevance

First: Take a Proper Mercador View Of the Arctic Ocean PAG Nations PAG Study Area? AND SO …. PAG is a Key Area of Study The Arctic Ocean is a Double-Estuary That Conects the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Piece #1: The Arctic Ocean Is fully connected to the Global Ocean System; we must plan IPY accordingly

Second: There is a lot of Freshwater Stored in the Arctic Ocean This impacts On Climate - And the THC And Also Impacts Biology via Stratification AS 22. 8 Freshwater inputs, storage and export (relative to a base salinity of 34. 8)

Piece #2: The disposition of freshwater (Sources, Storage and Sinks) plays a Critical role in Arctic climate & ecology, And must be a key focus in IPY

Third: Shelves and shelf/basin exchanges are very important! Shallow Continental shelves occupy 50% of the Arctic Ocean ! Consider three very general shelf types: • inflow • interior • outflow

On inflow shelves incoming waters from the Atlantic (Barents Sea) and Pacific (Bering & Chukchi seas) are modified by biogeochemical & physical processes during transit. These waters subsequently subduct at the shelf break and influence property distributions within the basin. Figure 2

The interior shelves (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Beaufort) are affected by the major arctic rivers. Generally, interior shelves exhibit a positive estuarine circulation in summer (plume spreading) and a negative estuarine circulation (brine release) in winter. Figure 2

The outflow shelves allow Arctic waters back into the North Atlantic (Nordic and Labrador seas) via the east coast of Greenland the Canadian Archipelago. The outflow shelves are not simple gates or channels, as transit times are long enough for thermohaline and biogeochemical changes to occur en route during passage. Figure 2

Piece #3: We cannot gain an understanding of the Arctic Ocean by studying only one spot (anymore than one could understand the Atlantic by only taking measurements off, say, the coast of Portugal) so the Pan. Arctic Perspective is a must for IPY

Fourth: extent in relation to Minimum ice Climate Change? the. Ice edge in summer: shelf break: 1979 -1989 vs. 2050 1979 -89 2050 Currently the shelf break is largely ice covered in summer But by 2050 the ice edge may retreat well beyond the shelf break. What will be the impact on shelf-break upwelling and new production? From J. Comiso, 2003

Retreat of the ice edge Past the shelf break A circulation ‘cell’ forms with upwelling at the coast and downwelling at the ice edge. Only shelf water circulates if the shelf-break is ice-covered. Continued retreat of summer ice cover exposes more and more of the shelf-break for longer periods of time to upwelling favorable winds. Upwelling depth increases as slope waters become ice-free. Salty, nutrient-rich water can now cross the whole shelf in a thin bottom boundary layer. From: Carmack & Chapman, GRL, 2003

Piece #4: The Pan. Arctic shelf break is a Tipping Point in climate change, and must be a focal point during IPY

Fifth: Finally, Society

IPY is IS BOTH … An Opportunity: To Build National Capacity & … An Obligation: To future generations that must carry on

Piece #5: IPY must take its social obligation seriously IPY? Two Points from the 2004 Massey Lectures … Ronald Wright - The pattern of cultural progress, followed by over-consumption & societal collapse, has been repeated time and time again by societies that failed to look ahead and adjust accordingly - When cultures finally enter the last stages of social collapse, the young of that final generation harbour deep anger towards the former generations that fouled the nest, and they thus behave as such. (Do we want this? )

In Summary - The 5 PIECES of a strong Arctic/Marine Programme • • Connected to the global climate system Disposition of freshwater in the Arctic A Pan-Arctic Perspective Continental margins & shelf/basin exchange • Social relevance

Final Remarks Most agree: the Arctic climate system is facing a serious case of phase change as ice melts, snow turns to rain and permafrost turns to mud. Positive feedback effects associated with phase changes may further amplify the influence of climate warming on Arctic physical systems. Perhaps IPY – in its own modest way - can help our policy-makers take some of the surprises out of our very uncertain future

Examples: CAME & COME

CAME

COME Canada Basin Watch Arctic Fluxes LAB/BAF Watch OSA OSD Marine Mammal Habitat Shelf-Basin Exchange Bering Strait Throughflow Beaufort Ice Motion Biogeochemical Fluxes Davis Strait Exchange Bering Shelf Observatory OSB Pacific Ocean Watch OSP PF SAF Canada Ocean Monitor Experiment Legend Sir Wilfrid Laurier Louis S. St-Laurent Ocean Station Moorings Arctic Curtain Stations

I Am I going To have to do all this work by myself? P Y Bon Van Hardenberg

Or, will PAG give a basis for international collaboration? I P Y Bon Van Hardenberg

Thank you. Any Questions? I P Y Bon Van Hardenberg