The Ins and Outs of Campaign Finance Paul

The Ins and Outs of Campaign Finance Paul S. Herrnson University of Connecticut State Legislative Leaders Foundation May 7, 2015

Contemporary Elections Candidates must wage two campaigns Incumbents have huge advantages Campaign finance system has disintegrated New possibilities, pressures, and pitfalls for donors It’s not always a race between 2 candidates anymore

The Two Campaigns The campaign for votes The campaign for resources

Campaign for Votes • • • Logistics Strategy Message Communications Motivate supporters, win persuadable voters, depress turnout for opposition 4

Incumbency Advantages Prior to the campaign season District composition High visibility & popularity During the campaign season Quality of the opposition Head start/early lead Expectations Voting cues “The cycle” Most incumbents win, but many run scared. . . 5

Campaign for Resources Fundraising • Logistics – Begins early, ends after the election – State or nationwide • Steps – Identify a financial constituency – Develop a pitch – Start local, build out – Match techniques to donors Political consulting talent Endorsements Outside spending groups

Who Gives and Spends? • Interest Groups • Political action committees (PACs) • Corporations, unions, trade associations, others • • • Political parties Party politicians Individuals – Small $’s from district and elsewhere – Large $’s from the wealthy areas

The Fundraising Pyramid Personal Solicitation Big $ Egos Access Fundraising Events Mid $ Social Direct Response: -Direct Mail -Telemarketing Low $ The Cause Source: Nancy Bocskor

Incumbency Advantages • • • Experienced organization Tried and true fundraising list and pitch Money is drawn to power Expectations Dynamics – Start early (continuous f-r) – Raise lots $ scare off competition OR keep raising $ • Challenger disadvantages – Opposite situation – “Catch 22” 9

The Campaign Finance System has Disintegrated Court rulings, regulatory decisions… From 3 Letters… PAC (political action committee) …. To Alphabet Soup PACs Super PACs (IE-only committees) 527 committees 501(c)s / social welfare organizations Corporations, trade associations, labor unions, others

Interest Group Spending in the 2014 Congressional Elections Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

Single-Candidate Super PACs Put Alaska First PAC $10, 157, 335 supports Begich (D-Ak. ) Kentuckians for Strong Leadership $6, 409, 610 supports Mc. Connell (R-Kty. ) Committee to Elect an Independent Senate $3, 891, 371 supports Orman (I-Kans. ) Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

Possibilities, Pressures, & Pitfalls for Donors Court rulings, regulatory decisions, 24 -hour news cycle … Individuals can do almost anything. . . may be asked to do everything The almost can backfire … and everyone can learn about it

Financiers of Elections Can… Contribute to a candidate, party, traditional PAC, 527, 501(c), super PAC, single-candidate super PAC ◦ No aggregate limit Make unlimited expenditures ◦ Same for corporations, unions, other groups Create an organization or network of org’s ◦ Limited, disclosed contributions to regulated committees ◦ Unlimited, undisclosed contributions to unregulated committees Do nothing? ◦ Depends on motives for contributing ◦ Balance: impact on election and policy v. public exposure

2 Financiers, 2 Reasons to Run Scared 15

Koch Bros. , 2014 43, 900 ads run this cycle (Jan 2013 – Aug 2014) On course to spend $290 million in 2014 16

It’s Not Always a Race Between Two Candidates Outside spending can be substantial In 2014… Parties and interest groups outspent both candidates in 9 Senate and 19 House races Difficult for candidates ◦ Plan their campaigns ◦ Disseminate their messages ◦ Avoid the money chase Voters hear a cacophony of voices Financed by wealthy individuals & groups

Questions? Thank you

PAC independent expenditures, 9% $52. 5 million Super PAC independent expenditures, 9% $59. 2 million PAC contributions 58% $403 million Corp, labor, other independent expenditures, 10% $71. 8 m Electioneering communications, 11% $79. 9 million Internal communications, 2% $13. 4 million Unreported spending activity Source: Paul S. Herrnson, Congressional Elections (Sage/CQ 2012).