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The Great Recession of 2008 -2010: How Will it Affect the Metroplex and the The Great Recession of 2008 -2010: How Will it Affect the Metroplex and the City of Fort Worth? Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph. D. University of North Texas Presentation to City of Fort Worth Economic Forum Fort Worth, TX March 10, 2009

Toxic Assets Toxic Assets

Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007 Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007

Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007 Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007

Mortgage Delinquencies Mortgage Delinquencies

Falling Off the Property Ladder Falling Off the Property Ladder

The Scream The Scream

Tracking the Bailout Tracking the Bailout

Budget Deficit In billions of dollars 2007: -$163 billion 2008: -$454 billion 2009 Forecast: Budget Deficit In billions of dollars 2007: -$163 billion 2008: -$454 billion 2009 Forecast: -$1. 75 trillion Source: Office of Management and Budget, White House projections

Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product 4 Q 2008: -6. 2% 2005 Source: Commerce Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product 4 Q 2008: -6. 2% 2005 Source: Commerce Department 2006 2007 2008

U. S. Jobless Rate In percent, seasonally adjusted: Feb. ’ 09: 8. 1% 2008 U. S. Jobless Rate In percent, seasonally adjusted: Feb. ’ 09: 8. 1% 2008 Source: U. S. Department of Labor 2009

Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands Feb. ’ 09: -651, 000 2007 Source: Labor Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands Feb. ’ 09: -651, 000 2007 Source: Labor Department 2008 ’ 09

Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Jan. 2009: $344. Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Jan. 2009: $344. 6 billion 2008 Source: U. S. Commerce Department ’ 09

Personal Consumption In trillions Jan. 2009: $9. 89 trillion 2008 Source: U. S. Department Personal Consumption In trillions Jan. 2009: $9. 89 trillion 2008 Source: U. S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis ’ 09

Industrial Production Index, 2002=100, seasonally adjusted Jan. 2009: 101. 3 Source: Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Index, 2002=100, seasonally adjusted Jan. 2009: 101. 3 Source: Federal Reserve Board

Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Jan. 2009: $986. 2 billion 2008 Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Jan. 2009: $986. 2 billion 2008 Source: Commerce Department ’ 09

Producer Prices Percentage change from previous month, seasonally adjusted. Jan 2009 0. 8% 2007 Producer Prices Percentage change from previous month, seasonally adjusted. Jan 2009 0. 8% 2007 Source: Labor Department 2008 2009

Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) Jan. 2009: 0. 3% 0 Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) Jan. 2009: 0. 3% 0 0 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 0 ’ 09

Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Jan. Starts: 466, 000 2008 Source: Dept. of Commerce; Dept. of H. U. D. ; Census Bureau ’ 09

New-Home Sales Single-family homes (in thousands) Jan. 2009: 309, 000 Source: Commerce Department New-Home Sales Single-family homes (in thousands) Jan. 2009: 309, 000 Source: Commerce Department

Existing-Home Sales Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units. Jan. 2009: 4. 49 million Existing-Home Sales Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units. Jan. 2009: 4. 49 million Source: The National Association of Realtors

US Population Ranking MSA July 2007 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 18, 815, US Population Ranking MSA July 2007 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 18, 815, 988 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 12, 875, 587 9, 522, 879 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6, 144, 489 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5, 827, 962 5, 629, 127 5, 413, 212 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 5, 306, 125 5, 271, 550 4, 467, 592 U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2008 Source: US Census Bureau © Greater Dallas Chamber

Metro Growth The most populated metropolitan areas in the country, ranked by their growth Metro Growth The most populated metropolitan areas in the country, ranked by their growth rates from 1990 to 2007. *Areas are defined based on the 2005 MSA definitions Source: U. S. Census Bureau

Employment Change 2004 -2007 Source: Texas Workforce Commission Employment Change 2004 -2007 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

City of Ft. Worth Employment: 2004 -2008 Source: Texas Workforce Commission City of Ft. Worth Employment: 2004 -2008 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Unemployment Rate, U. S. , Texas, & D/FW U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, U. S. , Texas, & D/FW U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Texas Workforce Commission U. S. Feb. 2009 = 8. 1% Texas Jan. 2009 = 6. 4% D/FW Jan. 2009 = 7. 1%

Home Prices Home Prices

Forced Home Sales Forced Home Sales

Cities In Trouble Cities In Trouble

Cities Growing Cities Growing

Geog of Recession Unemployment Rate Geog of Recession Unemployment Rate

Geog of Recession Change in Unemployment Rate Geog of Recession Change in Unemployment Rate

Major Threats to Texas Economy Ø Falling Energy Prices Ø Drop in Defense Spending Major Threats to Texas Economy Ø Falling Energy Prices Ø Drop in Defense Spending Ø Lower US Exports Ø Weakening demand for IT Products and Services

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: 2006 -2009 Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate Spot Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: 2006 -2009 Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate Spot Average (Dollars per barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot (Dollars per thousand cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg. com

Consumer Bankruptcies on the Rise (in thousands) Dec. 2008 = 84, 926 (-15%) Jan. Consumer Bankruptcies on the Rise (in thousands) Dec. 2008 = 84, 926 (-15%) Jan. 2009 = 88, 773 (+4. 5%) Feb. 2009 = 98, 344 (+10. 8%) Sources: American Bankruptcy Institute

Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5, 000 U. S. households, 1985 Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5, 000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Feb. 2009: 25. 0 2008 Source: The Conference Board 2009

Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead, ” or predict overall economic Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead, ” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100. Jan. 2009: 99. 5 2007 Source: The Conference Board 2008 ’ 09

Savings Rate Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income Jan. 2009: 5. Savings Rate Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income Jan. 2009: 5. 0% 2007 2008 *May & June savings pattern influenced by Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis ’ 09

Capitalism is Dead Capitalism is Dead

ü U. S. recession lasts through 2010 ü Fort Worth and Metroplex less affected ü U. S. recession lasts through 2010 ü Fort Worth and Metroplex less affected than most other regions ü When recovery begins in 2011, expect a new surge of people and businesses into Fort Worth and North Texas