The Future of US Foreign Policy And how

The Future of US Foreign Policy And how Obama has dealt with it

Short Term Iraq: Out Afghanistan: In and eventually out

Middle East Turmoil Balancing US interests • • counterterrorism human rights and democracy OIL alliance with Israel

Policies • Encouraging Egyptian military to oust Mubarak • Trying to salvage Yemeni and Bahraini leaders, but encouraging them to start transition as protests continue • Bombing Libya • Diplomacy with Syria: many implications • Saudi Arabia: silence

Longer Term US Goals • Preservation of US Leadership • Democratization • Global Free market capitalism • Stable change where change is necessary

Trends and Transformations? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Unipolarity: Can it Last New Cold War Multipolarity Leadership, not Dominance Middle Power Challenges Globalization: Interdependence Decline of Nation-State Power Uncertainties

1. Unipolarity • Can it Last? • It never has before

US Wealth See World Bank: http: //siteresources. worldbank. org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP. pdf

Global Military Expenditures • • • • • Country World United States Rest-of-World China Russia France United Kingdom Japan Germany Italy South Korea India Saudi Arabia Australia North Korea Iran Military spending $1100 billion $623 billion $500 billion $65. 0 billion $50. 0 billion $45. 0 billion $42. 8 billion $41. 75 billion $35. 1 billion $28. 2 billion $21. 1 billion $19. 0 billion $18. 0 billion $16. 9 billion $5. 0 billion $4. 3 billion From: http: //www. globalsecurity. org/military/world/spending. htm Budget Period 2004 est. FY 08 2004 est. 2004 2005 est. 2007 2003 est. 2005 est. 2006 FY 02 2003 est.

2. New Cold War • One nation catches up to the US • Rising Challenger • Declining hegemon

US vs. China • President Obama and President Hu

Great Power Challenges • Rival Power • Soft Authoritarian Ideology

3. Multipolarity • Many nations catch up to the US • The US falls back to the pack

A Multipolar System US Russia Japan EU China India

Or Another Bipolar System US India Russia China

Sending a Message? Obama Administration’s first state dinner • Michelle Obama and Indian PM Singh

Trips to Asia 2009 2010

4. Leadership, not Dominance G-20

5. Middle Power Challenges • Iranian power

6. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

Welcome to China

Welcome to the US

Welcome to New York

7. Decline of Nation-State Power • The Nation-State System evolves – Governments weaken • Financial Flows that governments can’t control • Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against

Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002, http: //www. treasury. gov. au/documents/265/HTML/docshell. asp? URL=default. asp

US GDP Growth

21 st Century Challenges Global Terrorism: 9/11 Regional Instability: al. Shabab in Somalia

AQAM Attacks 1995 -2011

Transnational Organized Crime: Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source: http: //www. utexas. edu/international/ioc/safety_updates. html

8. Uncertainties • • Climate Change Energy Food Population Over-urbanization Migration And…