THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES

THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES How the Current Projection of Military Power is Ill Suited to a Rapidly Changing World

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND 50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS Prior to 9/11 the world was a much simpler place…

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND 50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS Or was it? 1

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND 50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS • Over 150 U. S. Contingency responses since the end of the cold war – all that conflict didn’t just come from nowhere • 95% of those deployments happened in the third world – a paradigm shift from the 1 st world vs. 2 nd world conflict we had grown accustomed to. • Of those deployments almost 1/3 didn’t call of the use of lethal force at all, but instead consisted of humanitarian aide and peacekeeping operations. 2

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND 50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS • So where does that leave us now? Fighting two distinctly different foes: Regular Armies from Countries that don’t like us. & Insurgent Armies from Countries that don’t like us

HISTORICAL AND CURRENT THREATS Conventional Threats China Russia North Korea Non-Conventional or Guerrilla Threats Afghanis Iran tan Iraq Vietnam Somalia

WHAT WE IDEALLY WANT TO SEE HAPPEN Invade Bad Guy’s Country Take Down The Evil Dictator Install Popular Government

WHAT WE ACTUALLY END UP DEALING WITH: Wrangle Together Unwilling Coalition Fight Newly Formed Local Insurgency Finally Find Bad Guy Invade Bad Guy’s Country Lose Support of Locals Establish Fragile Popular Government Defeat Bad Guy’s Army Discover Rationale For Was Fabricated Leave With No Guarantee Of Lasting Success 3

IRAQ WAR TIMETABLE 3/19 – Invasion Begins 5/1 – Mission Accomplished 12/14 – Saddam Captured 2003 1/22 – CIA warns Insurgency 9/7 – Death toll hits 1000 Nov. – Deadliest Single Month 2004 1/12 – WMD search called off 5/30 – Insurgency in its “last throes” 12/15 – Constituion is ratified 2005 Yet despite achieving all that the American military set out to achieve, it would take ano of violence and war before the U. S. would finally leave the country 3

AND IF YOU THOUGHT IRAQ WAS BAD… 4

WHO ENDS UP SHOULDERING THE BURDEN? In 2003 the U. S. Military defeated the entire Iraqi Armed Forces in six weeks with 150 combat casualties. Despite this, by 2012 that number had risen to 4, 404 dead and 31, 827 wounded. 5

150 COMBAT CASUALTIES IN SIX WEEKS… 6

WHO ENDS UP SHOULDERING THE BURDEN? 680 BILLION 7

CLOSING THE BUDGET HOLE: THE NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT Governs Do. D Spending - FY 2012 Authorized December 31 2011 Conventional Military U. S. Military of the Unconventional Counter-Terror Force Juggernaut 1980’s Diverts funding from conventional to unconventional warfare units USSOCOM budget quadruples over the course of Iraq + Afghanistan 8

WHY DO WE NEED TWO ARMIES? ISN’T ONE GOOD ENOUGH? Here’s our first type of threat. How do we respond?

WHY DO WE NEED TWO ARMIES? ISN’T ONE GOOD ENOUGH? Responding this way will lose you friends very Here’s our second type of threat.

LIBYA – THE NEW MODEL FOR LARGE SCALE U. S. INTERVENTION • Waited for international commun to request that we intervene. • Formed coalition out of those nations willing to stand with us. • Kept our ground forces way bac waged the whole war from the a • Gave local population no reason to take up arms against us. Bottom line: We showed up at the party we were invited to, and didn’t overstay our 9

IRAN: OUR NEWEST CONVENTIONAL THREAT 10

WHY A FIGHT WITH IRAN IS BAD FOR BUSINESS 1/5 of the entire world’s Maritime oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormu Summer 2002 – last time US Navy conducted games focused on Iran Found that US NAVY unprepared to fight an asymmetrical battle; weapons and tactics still centered around Soviet era threat At conclusion of war games 16 US ships, inclu one aircraft carrier, lay at the bottom of the Pe Gulf 11

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED • illustrates the need to update conventional force against smaller, lighter, faster threats • Shows that the U. S. military is not in fact an invincible force • The US already refuses to import Iranian oil: wait until the international community expresses its desire for US intervention But we probably won’t have to do anything… Umm, Guys? 12

AFRICA: OUR NEW NATION BUILDING PROJECT Army Special Forces doing what they do be conducting foreign internal defense by the order of president Obama. An unidentified tribal militia is difficult to counter because its members can simply put down their guns and hide among peaceful civilians 13

AFRICA • October 12, 2011: President Obama sends ≈ 100 combat equipped U. S. troops to Africa to hunt down the leaders of the violent Lord's Resistance Army in and around Uganda • American troops "will only be providing information, advice and assistance to partner nation forces” • Rules of engagement authorize lethal force in self defense of in defense of United States personnel or critical equipment • Expected to maintain a presence in country, “for a few months. ” 14

WORKS CONSULTED 10 BBC UK. “Iran Threatens to Block Strait of Hormuz. ” December 28, 2011, Middle East edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. bbc. co. uk/news/world-middle-east-16344102. CBS News. “Iran Arrests Suspect in Nuke Scientists Death. ” January 15, 2012, International edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. cbsnews. com/8301 -202_162 -57359670/iranarrests-suspects-in-nuke-scientists-death/. CNN. “Iran Threatens Israel, US Over Scientist Killing. ” January 15, 2012, International edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //articles. cnn. com/2012 -0115/middleeast/world_meast_iran-nuclear-scientist-killed_1_nuclear-scientist-iran-s-press-tvleader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei? _s=PM: MIDDLEEAST. 11 CNN. “Iran Warns US over Carrier. ” January 3, 2012, International edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //articles. cnn. com/2012 -01 -03/middleeast/world_meast_iran-u-s-_1_chabahariran-last-week-irna? _s=PM: MIDDLEEAST. 13 CNN. “Obama Orders Troops to Africa. ” October 14, 2011, US edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //articles. cnn. com/2011 -10 -14/africa/world_africa-obama-troops_1_obamaorders-south-sudan-central-african-republic? _s=PM: AFRICA.

WORKS CONSULTED • Nakamura, David. “Obama Signs Defense Bill. ” The Washington Post, December 31, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. washingtonpost. com/politics/obama-signsdefense-bill-pledges-to-maintain-legal-rights-of-terrorsuspects/2011/12/31/g. IQATzbk. SP_story. html. • 8 10 • • 14 • 9 New York Times. “Obama Faces off with Iran. ” January 15, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. nytimes. com/2012/01/17/world/middleeast/faceoff-with-irancomplicates-obamas-re-election-campaign. html. RT. “Obama Sending US Troops to Africa. ” October 14, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //rt. com/usa/news/obama-kony-troops-africa-903/. Strazioso, John. “US Troops to Africa. ” The Huffington Post, October 14, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. huffingtonpost. com/2011/10/27/us-troops-inafrica_n_1035612. html. • • Youngman, Sam. “Obama Defends Libya Action. ” The Hill, September 20, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //thehill. com/homenews/administration/182551 -obamadefends-libya-action.

WORKS CONSULTED 8 CNN. “Obama Signs DAA into action. ” December 31, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //articles. cnn. com/2011 -12 -31/politics_obama-defensebill_1_civilian-custody-legislators-military-custody? _s=PM: POLITICS. 9 Ellison, Keith. “US Role Made the Difference in Libya. ” CNN, August 26, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2011. http: //articles. cnn. com/2011 -0826/opinion/ellison. libya. obama_1_libyan-conflict-libyan-people-moammargadhafi? _s=PM: OPINION. Fox News. “US Navy Training Dolphins. ” January 15, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. foxnews. com/us/2012/01/15/us-navy-finds-dolphins-key-ally-instrait-hormuz-showdown-with-iran/ . 8 Legum, Judd. “Obama Signs DAA. ” Think Progress, December 31, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //thinkprogress. org/security/2011/12/31/396018/breaking-obama-signsdefense-authorization-bill/? mobile=nc.

WORKS CONSULTED 4 7 Daily Mail UK. “Afghanistan Power Point Slide. ” April 28, 2010, US edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. dailymail. co. uk/news/article 1269463/Afghanistan-Power. Point-slide-Generals-left-baffled-Power. Pointslide. html. New York Times. “US Budget. ” February 1, 2010, US edition. http: //www. nytimes. com/interactive/2010/02/01/us/budget. html. 7 US Budget: Fiscal Year 2011. United States Government, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. Last modified 2011. http: //www. gpoaccess. gov/usbudget/fy 11/pdf/budget. pdf. 8 “US Budget: Fiscal Year 2011 (Department of Defense). ” White House Website. Accessed January 15, 2012. Last modified 2011. http: //www. whitehouse. gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy 2012/assets/defen se. pdf.

WORKS CONSULTED Barnett, Thomas. “The World According to Thomas Barnett. ” Presentation at the Pentagon for the 2011 National Military Audience Brief, Washington, DC. Filmed October 2011. Posted October 16, 2011. Accessed January 9, 2012. http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=m. DVOP 0 l. EECk&feature=related • 2 • Barnett, Thomas. “Thomas Barnett draws a new world map for peace. ” 2005 TED conference. Filmed February 2005. Posted June, 2007. Accessed January 9, 2012. http: //www. ted. com/talks/thomas_barnett_draws_a_new_map_for_p eace. html • Shakir, Faiz. “A Timeline of the Iraq War. ” Think Progress Special Report. Original Publication March 17, 2006. Last updated January 12, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //thinkprogress. org/report/iraqtimeline/? mobile=nc • NPR. “The Toll Of War. ” Updated August 4, 2009. Accessed January 15, 2012. http: //www. npr. org/news/specials/tollofwarmain. html 1 3 5+6