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Скачать презентацию The First 25 Years of the Bled e
Скачать презентацию The First 25 Years of the Bled e
The First 25 Years of the Bled e. Conference Roger Clarke Xamax Consultancy, Canberra Visiting Professor in Computer Science, ANU and in Cyberspace Law & Policy, UNSW http: //www. anu. edu. au/Roger. Clarke/. . . . /EC/Bled 25 P {. html, . ppt} Bled e. Conference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012 Copyright 2012 1
Copyright 2012 2
In 1987 -88 • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital 3
In 1987 -88 • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human http: //www. nytimes. com/1987/07/12/world/and-babymakes-five-billion-un-hails-a-yugoslav-infant. html 4
In 1987 -88 • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion 5
In 1987 -88 • • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) 6
In 1987 -88 • • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U 2 had its first hit The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42 7
In 1987 -88 • • • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U 2 had its first hit The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42 The European Community comprised 11 countries The EU - formed only in 1993 - is now 17 countries 8
In 1987 -88 • • Copyright 2012 Matej Gaspar was born in Zagreb Hospital The UN proclaimed him to be the 5 billionth human The world population is now 7 billion In Chile, the FIFA World Youth Championship was won by Yugoslavia (incl. Boban, Prosinecki and Suker, but without Boksic, Jugovic and Mihajlovic) The top single was by Bon Jovi, and U 2 had its first hit The Eurovision Song Contest had 22 contestants – now 42 The European Community comprised 11 countries The EU - formed only in 1993 - is now 17 countries Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were in power Mikhail Gorbachev came to power only in October 1988 9
June 1989 2 nd Bled Conference November 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall Copyright 2012 10
June 1989 2 nd Bled Conference November 1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall June 1991 4 th Bled e. Conference June-July 1991 Desetdnevna Vojna (Ten-Day War) Copyright 2012 11
The Early Bled e. Conferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) The exchange of documents in standardised electronic form, between organisations, in an automated manner, directly from a computer application in one organisation to an application in another Admin and accounting applications (e. g. invoices) Operational uses (purchase orders, acknowledgements) Batch data transfers, not online; limited strategic impact Copyright 2012 12
ICT in 1987 -88 IBM PS/2 Mac Plus (1 MB) Hard-drive option HP 110 Copyright 2012 13
ICT in 1987 -88 • • Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3 -4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years Copyright 2012 14
ICT in 1987 -88 • • • Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3 -4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2 G) was several years away Copyright 2012 15
ICT in 1987 -88 • • • Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3 -4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years • • 2400 bps Modems BBS Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2 G) was several years away Copyright 2012 16
ICT in 1987 -88 • • • Apple Mac and GUIs had existed for 3 -4 years MS Windows had just been released, but was primitive and would remain so for another 7 years • Analogue cellular mobile was new, and digital (2 G) was several years away • • Copyright 2012 2400 bps Modems BBS 10 Mbps Ethernet Built-in, plug-and-play 300 Kbps Appletalk IBM PCs just beginning to talk to Minis 17
Inter-Organisational Systems in 1987 -88 • • • Copyright 2012 Airline Reservation Systems (from late 1960 s) ATMs (from early 1970 s) SWIFT (from 1977) EFT/POS (from mid-1980 s) FMIS remained almost entirely intra-organisational (The term ERP wasn’t even coined until 1990) 18
Information Systems A Definition The multi-disciplinary study of: • the collection, processing and storage of data • the use of information by individuals and groups, especially within organisational contexts • artefacts and technologies that are applied to those activities • the impact, implications and management of those artefacts and technologies Copyright 2012 http: //www. rogerclarke. com/SOS/ISDefn. html, 1990 19
Intra. Organisational Systems Copyright 2012 http: //www. rogerclarke. com/SOS/ISDefn. html, 1990 20
Strategic IS Theory • • • Copyright 2012 Strategic IS Theory only emerged 198 -1985 Proposition: Smart decisions enable corporations to gain decisive and sustainable competitive advantage Examples: • airline reservation systems (1968) • IBM’s unbundling of software (1969) • IBM PC (1981) • Ethernet (Early 1980 s) • GUIs (mid-1980 s) 21
The Scope of the Bled Conferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) 1988 -1992 (5) EDI and Inter-Organizational Systems 1993 -1995 (3) Copyright 2012 22
Inter. Organisational Systems Copyright 2012 23
Inter. Organisational Systems Multi. Organisational Systems Copyright 2012 24
Star Networks Hub and Spoke Systems Copyright 2012 25
The Scope of the Bled Conferences Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) 1988 -1992 (5) EDI and Inter-Organizational Systems 1993 -1995 (3) ––– LANs mainstreamed, Internet arrival ––– Electronic Commerce (9) e. Conference Copyright 2012 1996 -2004 2005 -2012 (8) 26
Cascading Systems Copyright 2012 27
Extra. Organisational Systems ATMs, EFTPOS, . . . Copyright 2012 http: //www. rogerclarke. com/SOS/Paper. Extra. Org. Sys. html Proc. IFIP World Congress, Madrid (September 1992) 28
Extra. Organisational Systems . . . Add Mobile Devices. . . Copyright 2012 29
Extra. Organisational Systems . . . Add Syndication Copyright 2012 http: //www. rogerclarke. com/SOS/Paper. Extra. Org. Sys. html IFIP World Congress, September 1992 30
Strategic IS Theory Extended • • • Copyright 2012 Each decision by an individual organisation is just one small intervention within a complex system Significant, sustainable competitive advantage from strategic decisions is uncommon; it’s mostly luck In many contexts, ‘strategic’ does not involve competitiveness, e. g. public sector, not-for-profits Many strategic interventions for competitive advantage build on collaborative arrangements, incl. strategic partnerships, common infrastructure Many strategic interventions are much more valuable to the system as a whole than to the organisation 31
The Bled e. Conference ‘Middle Period’ 1996 -2004 • • • Copyright 2012 Internet Services Provides exhibited great creativity e. Commerce saw many experiments, some successful e. Government emerged Internet Services investors showed enormous naivety and the Internet Services ‘boom’ turned to ‘bust’ Researchers had no difficulty finding interesting companies, sectors and systems to study Success and failure factors were studied, seeking ways to overcome the impediments to adoption 32
The Bled e. Conference Themes Bled Electronic Commerce Conference 1996 (09) – Electronic Commerce for Trade Efficiency and Effectiveness 1997 (10) – Global Business in Practice 1998 (11) – Electronic Commerce in the Information Society 1999 (12) – Global Networked Organisations 2000 (13) – Electronic Commerce: The End of the Beginning 2001 (14) – e-Everything: e-Commerce, e. Government, e-Household, e. Democracy 2002 (15) – e. Reality: Constructing the e. Economy 2003 (16) – e. Transformation 2004 (17) – e. Global Copyright 2012 33
The Bled e. Conference ‘Mature Period’ 2005 -20? ? • • • The strong focus on organisational applications and internationalisation has been somewhat moderated As early as 1998, 'the Information Society' theme In 2001, the scope was declared to be 'e-Everything' incl. e-Commerce, e-Government, e-Household, e-Democracy • • Copyright 2012 In 2005, a further adaption to the overall theme ‘e. Conference’ reflects comprehensive scope, encompassing all aspects of electronic interaction 34
The Bled e. Conference Themes Bled Electronic Commerce Conference Bled e. Conference 1996 (09) – Electronic Commerce for Trade Efficiency and Effectiveness 1997 (10) – Global Business in Practice 1998 (11) – Electronic Commerce in the Information Society 1999 (12) – Global Networked Organisations 2000 (13) – Electronic Commerce: The End of the Beginning 2001 (14) – e-Everything: e-Commerce, e. Government, e-Household, e. Democracy 2002 (15) – e. Reality: Constructing the e. Economy 2003 (16) – e. Transformation 2004 (17) – e. Global 2005 (18) – e. Integration in Action 2006 (19) – e. Values 2007 (20) – e. Mergence: Merging and Emerging Technologies, Processes, and Institutions 2008 (21) – e. Collaboration: Overcoming Boundaries Through Multi-Channel Interaction 2009 (22) – e. Enablement: Facilitating an Open, Effective and Representative e. Society 2010 (23) – e. Trust: Implications for the Individual, Enterprises and Society 2011 (24) – e. Future: Solutions for the Individual, Organisations and Society 2012 (25) – e. Dependability Copyright 2012 35
The Bled e. Conference Critical Success Factors • • Industry Stream, with multiple parallel sessions (now the Business and Government Panel Track) Business Meetings of International, Regional and National Groups • Well-Reputed Supporters, esp. in early years – Milt Jenkins, Doug Vogel, Don Mc. Cubbrey • Research Stream, with multiple parallel sessions Student e. Prototype Bazaars Graduate Student Consortia • • Copyright 2012 36
Conference Leadership • • Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor Conference Chair – Joze Gricar (21), Andreja Pucihar (4) Consistency, Continuity in theme, flavour, style and values Copyright 2012 37
Conference Leadership • • • Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor Conference Chair – Joze Gricar (21), Andreja Pucihar (4) Consistency, Continuity in theme, flavour, style and values Research Stream Chair Diversity, Adaptation to the conference community's interests Over 18 years, 16 different individuals have performed the Research Stream Chair role – 9 male, 7 female • Chairs’ affiliations in 9 different countries – Europe (6) – Copyright Germany 5, Greece, the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, 2012 • 38
Papers and Authorship • • • >1, 000 papers, >2, 000 authors Since 1995, 773 refereed papers, 1, 800 authors 50 countries on the research program: Australia 389 (22%), Netherlands 260 (15%), Germany 234 (13%), UK 100, Finland 95, USA 71, Ireland 68, Greece 66, Switzerland 61 Copyright 2012 39
Papers and Authorship • • • >1, 000 papers, >2, 000 authors Since 1995, 773 refereed papers, 1, 800 authors 50 countries on the research program: Australia 389 (22%), Netherlands 260 (15%), Germany 234 (13%), UK 100, Finland 95, USA 71, Ireland 68, Greece 66, Switzerland 61 • On average, on each Research Stream program: • 17 countries (range 11 to 23) 55 universities (range 24 to 94) 9 authors not academics (range 2 to 19) • 11 papers multi-institution (c. 25%) (range 4 to 21) • 7 papers multi-country (c. 15%) (range 1 to 13) Copyright 2012 40
Bled 25 Special Section (1) Reflect on the 24 Bled conferences held to date (2) Focus on a persistent theme (3) Be future-oriented Copyright 2012 41
Bled 25 Special Section (1) Reflect on the 24 Bled conferences held to date (2) Focus on a persistent theme (3) Be future-oriented • • 27 expressions of interest 9 contributions survived the review process 5 by sole authors and 4 by teams of 2 to 8 people 21 authors, whose affiliations are in 8 countries Australia, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, the USA, Vietnam • Copyright 2012 Complemented by an IFIP WG 8. 4 Session 42
Technologies as Themes at the Bled e. Conference • Mainframes, Minis, Micros PCs, Laptops Mobiles, Tablets • PPNs and VANs LANs The Internet and VPNs Cellular Networks • • • But Technology has never been the primary focus Copyright 2012 43
Categories of e. Business (60%) EDI 41 e. Commerce (14%) 140 e. Markets, Directories, Auctions SMEs 53 MCommerce, Mobile Apps 56 e. Marketing, CRM, 55 Consumer Behaviour Copyright 2012 e. Government 1995 -1998 1996 -2001 1998 -2002 51 1998 -2002 -2009 2003 -2011 2004 -2008 44
Corporate Perspectives (22%) Inter-Organisational Systems 1995 -1998 24 Supply Chain, ECR, Intermediaries 1998 -2003 37 Business Models 2003 -2005, 2009 29 BPR, Transformation, Alignment, Integration 2003 -2007 42 Strategic Alliance, Bus Networks, Virtual Organisations 2004, 2007 -2009 37 Copyright 2012 Other (4 clusters) 45
Research Topics (19%) Adoption, Impediments, Success Factors Trust, Reputation, Risk Other (7 clusters) Copyright 2012 2001 -2007 2001 -2004, 2010 -11 52 37 96 46
Special Section – The Nine Papers Meta-Analyses 1. The First 25 Years of the Bled e. Conference: Themes and Impacts – Roger Clarke 2. Automatic Semantic Trend Analysis of the Bled e. Conference: 2001 -2011 – Heinz Dreher Categories of e. Business 3. The Use of ICT to support Regional Developments: Contributions from the Bled e. Conference – Hans-Dieter Zimmermann 4. From MCom Visions to Mobile Value Services – Christer Carlsson and Pirkko Walden Corporate Perspectives 5. Business Models Tooling and a Research Agenda – Harry Bouwman , Mark De Reuver, Sam Solaimani, Dave Daas, Timber Haaker, Wil Janssen, Paul Iske, Bastiaan Walenkamp 6. 25 Years of Research into the Management of e. Technology Projects – Julie Cameron 7. Inter-organizational Information Systems: From Strategic Systems to Information Infrastructures – Stefan Klein, Kai Reimers, Robert B. Johnston 8. Generating Procedural Controls to Facilitate Trade: The Role of Control in the Absence of Trust – Roger W. H. Bons, Ronald M. Lee, Vu Hoang Nguyen Research Topics 9. User Acceptance of Electronic Commerce: Contributions from the Bled e. Conference – Hans van der Heijden Copyright 2012 47
Impact Measures • Copyright 2012 >1, 000 papers in hard-copy and CD Proceedings 48
Copyright 2012 49
Impact Measures >1, 000 papers in hard-copy and CD Proceedings • 550 papers online at the Conference web-site and in the AIS e. Library • 53 papers (7%) in 13 Special Sections of IJEC and EM plus many more independently, in other journals • Google Citations • of Bled Papers c. 3, 500 • of Bled-derived Special Issue Papers, c. 2, 000 • >10, 000 downloads from AIS e. Library alone, plus conference web-site and uni and personal repositories • Graduate Student Consortia, Student e. Prototype Copyright Bazaars, Research Collaborations, informal exchange • 2012 50
From Past History on to Future History Zimmerman – Proposes more systematic study of e. Region initiatives and of success and failure factors Carlsson and Walden – See mobile commerce at last maturing towards mobile value systems Bouwman et al. – Foresee improvements in tools to support the integration of business model analysis with other notions, especially business process analysis and enterprise architecture Cameron – Shows the need for much more attention to the social and organisational factors that primarily determine project outcomes Bons et al. – Suggest more imaginative balancing between blind trust and controls, in order to overcome impediments to adoption Klein et al. – See the longstanding focus on inter-org’l systems (IOS) gravitating towards an information infrastructure (II) perspective Van der Heijden – Sees user acceptance research moving from surveys of what people say they do, towards observation of what people actually do Copyright 2012 51
Challenges for the Bled e. Conference beyond 2012 e. Technology • • Copyright 2012 Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage Cameras, smart meters, drones, . . . perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even ‘Smart Dust’ Internet Traffic Monitoring (‘Deep Packet Inspection’) Biometrics 52
Challenges for the Bled e. Conference beyond 2012 e. Technology • • Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage Cameras, smart meters, drones, perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even ‘Smart Dust’ Internet Traffic Monitoring (‘Deep Packet Inspection’) Biometrics e. Technology-in-use • • • Copyright 2012 Virtualisation of Organisational Structures and Employment Data Gathering, incl. Locations, Communications, Content Access, Social Networks Denial of Anonymity and Multiple Identities, Insecure Sig Keys 53
Challenges for the Bled e. Conference beyond 2012 e. Technology • • Virtualisation of Data Processing and Storage Cameras, smart meters, drones, perhaps an 'Internet of Things', even ‘Smart Dust’ Internet Traffic Monitoring (‘Deep Packet Inspection’) Biometrics e. Technology-in-use • • • Virtualisation of Organisational Structures and Employment Data Gathering – Locations, Communications, Content Access, Social Networks Denial of Anonymity, Denial of Multiple Identities, Insecure Signature Keys e. Technology Politics • • Copyright 2012 Dominance of economic drivers over social needs Dominance of corporate and government interests over consumer and citizen interests • The Social Media Business Model is Anti-Social • Control over the Internet by Governments and the ITU 54
Diversity of Scope, and of Units of Study • Copyright 2012 Economic Perspective: • Corporation / Government Agency • Industry Segment / Sector • Local Region • Nation • Bloc / Region (EU, NAFTA, ASEAN) 55
Diversity of Scope, and of Units of Study • • Copyright 2012 Economic Perspective: • Corporation / Government Agency • Industry Segment / Sector • Local Region • Nation • Bloc / Region (EU, NAFTA, ASEAN) Human Perspective: • Not-for-profit / NGO / Association • Community / Segment • Social Group • Individual 56
Information Systems A Definition The multi-disciplinary study of: • the collection, processing and storage of data • the use of information by individuals and groups, especially within organisational contexts • artefacts and technologies that are applied to those activities • the impact, implications and management of those artefacts and technologies Copyright 2012 57
The Dangers of Empricism • • • Empiricism says ‘base interpretations on observations’ Empiricists have to wait for phenomena to stabilise before they can deliver any information of value So empiricism is inherently backwards-looking. ‘Old-world research’ describes past realities Copyright 2012 58
The Dangers of Empricism • • • Empiricism = ‘base interpretations on observations’ Empiricists have to wait for phenomena to stabilise before they can deliver any information of value So empiricism is inherently backwards-looking. ‘Old-world research’ describes past realities The subject-matter of the Bled e. Conference is dynamic The style of the Bled e. Conference is instrumentalist To be design-oriented, authors have to take risks, and carefully balance academic rigour with relevance Copyright 2012 59
The Bled e. Conference Outstanding Paper Award The Criteria Perspective Real-World Contribution Academic Presentation Copyright 2012 The Quality Sought Relevance Ambition Rigour Ease of Access 60
Conclusions • • • The Bled e. Conference has continually adapted to rapid changes in context and needs Its theme and scope are comprehensive and up-to-date, encompassing all aspects of electronic interaction It is relevant because of its instrumentalist tradition It has a substantial community The Bled e. Conference will continue to be highly valuable as we confronts the challenges of designing and managing electronic interactions among organisations, among people, and between organisations and people Copyright 2012 61
The First 25 Years of the Bled e. Conference Roger Clarke Xamax Consultancy, Canberra Visiting Professor in Computer Science, ANU and in Cyberspace Law & Policy, UNSW http: //www. anu. edu. au/Roger. Clarke/. . . . /EC/Bled 25 P {. html, . ppt} Bled e. Conference Opening Plenary – 18 June 2012 Copyright 2012 62
Meta-Analyses of the Bled Corpus • • Copyright 2012 'Bled e. Conference Themes and Impacts' Roger Clarke 'Automatic Semantic Trend Analysis' Heinz Dreher application of a semantic analysis tool to the full-text of each set of refereed proceedings 2001 -2011, generating measures of the occurrence of Concept. Keywords, within-year, and across the period enables detection and analysis of changing emphases, such as the patterns of references to people as users, participants, employees, teammembers and objects 63
Bled 25 Special Section Categories of e. Business • • Copyright 2012 'e. Regions' – Zimmerman Contribution of ‘e’ to economic and social development within geographical regions, both within countries (e. g. , large and thinly-populated rural areas), and across national borders (e. g. Adriatic ports, the Bodenseee, Basque and many other areas) Considerable contributions of meetings, panels and workshops to collaborations More research focus needed, through systematic study of initiatives and of success and failure factors 64
Bled 25 Special Section Categories of e. Business • • Copyright 2012 'Mobile Commerce, Mobile Value Services’ – Carlsson & Walden Note the slowness of take-up during the last decade, particularly of the more advanced services From messaging, via data services to transaction services, but the focus switches to mobile value services and particularly knowledge mobilisation Critical design factors that have underpinned previous successful product launches offer insights into design factors for the next round of products 65
Bled 25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives • • • Copyright 2012 'Tools to Support Business Models' – Bouwman et al. road-mapping to cope with transitions, stress-testing, agile engineering, financial decision-making support The threads of previous lines of development in business modelling theory weave through the history of the Bled e. Conference, and the paper suggests that this is likely to be the case in future Bled conference programs as well Now need more effective combination of Business Models with Business Process Analysis and Enterprise Architecture Approaches 66
Bled 25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives • • Copyright 2012 'Project Management' – Cameron • Factor Research (incl. CSF) • Engineering tradition (incl. tools, life-cycle notions) • Social Science tradition (org’l structures, processes) Disappointingly slow adaptation of e. Technology project management techniques, from origins in intra-organisational systems, to the much more challenging contexts of interorganisational information systems (IOIS) and extraorganisational systems (EOS) Decreasing emphasis on the engineering tradition, increasing attention to the social and organizational factors that primarily determine project outcomes Even more emphasis is needed on multiple levels of analysis and on multi-disciplinary research 67
Bled 25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives • • Copyright 2012 'IOIS and Information Infrastructure' – Klein at al. Progressive shift in focus in IOIS research, towards an information infrastructure (II) perspective The unit of study began as the individual organisation, but may now be the set of collaborating organisations, or the integral collaborative whole Underlines the value of the Bled e. Conference not only as a locus for informal meetings but also for disciplined face-to-face discussion, theory criticism and extension, and the conception of research projects 68
Bled 25 Special Section Corporate Perspectives • • Copyright 2012 'Procedural Controls to Facilitate Trade' – Bons et al. Trust by participants in multi-party electronic activities information infrastructure for international trade and the criticality of controls as a means of achieving – or of avoiding the need for – trust in international trade procedures The team’s 'deontic' approach enables formal modelling of the means of identifying and implementing the necessary controls, such as evidence of permissions, rights, obligations, prohibitions and waivers 69
Bled 25 Special Section Research Topics 'User Acceptance' – van der Heijden • During 2001 -2003, existing theories based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) were applied • During 2004 -2007, existing theories were extended, particularly in the trust and privacy areas • During 2008 -2011, Bled delegates have recognised the limitations of the traditional models, moved beyond them, and adopted alternative theoretical approaches • van der Heijden's paper anticipates fewer surveys of what people say they do, and more observation of what people actually do, including use of experimental method in order to achieve more control, and Copyright 2012 improved insights • 70
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