The Failure of 20 th Century Intelligence

® The Failure of 20 th Century Intelligence Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE) 6 Robert David Steele Updated 20 July 2006

® Elements of Intelligence Covert Action • Black Ops • Mind Ops Collection • Human • Technical Leadership • Mindset • Courage Analysis • Current • Estimative Counterintelligence • Defensive • Offensive

® Brief History of Intelligence • Secret War – For centuries, this has been the primary focus on national-level intelligence. It remains valid. • Strategic Analysis – Sherman Kent introduced this as the focal point, but he was not successful. It remains valid. • Smart Nation – This is where I think we need to go. More later.

® Global Collection Failure I Ignored Open Source Information • 80% of what we need to do intelligence is not secret, not digital, not in your language, and not owned by the government. • We failed to treat open sources with respect. We need OSINT!

® Global Collection Failure II Very Limited Non-Official Cover • 80% of the bad boys and girls that we need to recruit/monitor for clandestine operations do not attend Embassy cocktail parties. • We have been lazy and cheap about nonofficial cover (in USA).

® Global Collection Failure III Almost no Technical Processing • If we do not process what we have collected (generally at great expense), we might as well not collect it at all--we can save the money. • CN + PN = Intel. NN • Processing Matters!

® Global Processing Failure I No Data Standards • Data standards (for instance, XML) are vital if we are to be able to exploit modern information technology. • Microsoft is the enemy of the state! Open source software, and data standards, add value to your work.

® Global Processing Failure II No Geospatial Attributes • Automated “all-source fusion” is not possible unless every datum, in every medium, has both a time and a geospatial attribute. • XML Geo needs to be an international standard--you can lead.

® Global Processing Failure III No Interoperability or All-Source Mixing • Security is the opposite of intelligence. • Compartmentation is the enemy of knowledge. • There must be one single processing agency where everything can be mixed and evaluated.

® Global Analysis Failure I Emphasis on Security Instead of Answers • Intelligence is about decision-support--about answering the question! • Must not confuse expertise, foreign languages, and security clearances nor should we require that the same person have them all! Mix and match. . .

® Global Analysis Failure II Focused on Threats Instead of Opportunities • Threats that are here and now represent a strategic warning failure. • Intelligence is at its best when it makes the case for preventive investments-anticipatory policy-opportunities for advantage.

® Global Analysis Failure III Emphasis on Local Now Vice Global Future • Greatest intelligence value comes from strategic estimative analysis about big issues--global issues • Politicians already know the local nuances-must teach them--and the public--the global tradeoffs

® Global Policy Failure I Failure to Impact on Budget • National intelligence has virtually no impact on how the citizen’s taxes are allocated across various national priorities. • We spend too much on hard power and almost nothing on soft power.

® Global Policy Failure II Failure to Impact on Policymaker Wisdom • Policymakers are loosely-educated and often dismiss the value of global knowledge. • Intelligence is most valuable to the public interest when it constantly educates policymakers in a compelling manner.

® Global Policy Failure III Failure to Win Public Support for Intelligence • Intelligence is not taught in schools and there is no public appreciation for its vital contributions. • We must establish a public discipline of intelligence across the seven tribes and in the public eye.

® Global Acquisitions Failure I Failure to Impact on What We Buy • US military buys what Examples contractors want to sell, • Aviation temperatures not what we need. • Cross-country mobility • Strategic generalizations • Line of sight distances about the real world have no impact on • Bridge loading limits procurement. • Ports (-), Airheads (+) • US ignores allied • C 4 I anti-Internet/open interoperability and • OOTW assets (MP etc. ) affordability needs.

® Global Acquisitions Failure II Failure to Impact on Private Sector IT Microsoft Systran • Failed to legislate stable transparent Application Program Interfaces (API). • Failed to define generic functionalities for joint development. • Failed to define an agile security architecture.

® Global Acquisitions Failure III Failure to Provide for Intelligence • US mobility, weapons, and C 4 I systems do not program funds for the acquisition and delivery of necessary data. • Intelligence is treated as a “free” good. • Commanders “assume” intelligence will be provided when needed.

® Global Operations Failure I Cannot Do Wide Area Surveillance • US satellites optimized for finding Soviet missile silos • Air-breather options never had the processing system created to do near real time change detection. • Still a labor intensive “hit or miss” activity.

® Global Operations Failure II Cannot Do Last Mile • Can’t see under jungle canopy or into city streets • Can’t find single individuals with technology--still a clandestine human endeavor and generally can’t do it

® Global Operations Failure III Cannot Do Real-Time Change Detection • Air Operations Plans now require 24+ hours to prepare (US/NATO) • Sensor to shooter processing is terrible-and mostly manual • Have lost ability to do quick reaction strikes-when the lawyers let us.

® Philosophical Failure I National Tribe instead of Global Tribes • National intelligence tribe has monopolized the money/attention. • Failed to create generic intelligence discipline with seven tribes. • Failed to develop regional or global intelligence networks.

® Philosophical Failure II Government Secrecy Over Public Sharing • The new paradigm rewards sharing more than secrecy. • Secrets are primarily valuable in the context of a rich open source knowledge foundation. • Cannot have smart spies within dumb nation.

® Philosophical Failure III Letting Americans Lead is Wasteful • American dominance of NATO intelligence is wasteful & dangerous. • We need a European alternative emphasizing commercial security, web-based sharing, multi-cultural approaches, global burden-sharing.

® Conclusion I. . . spies only know secrets • Intelligence is about discovering, discriminating, distilling, and delivering ANSWERS. • The problem with spies is they only know secrets. • So, we still need secrets, but we need to be smarter about the context for our secrets.

® Conclusion II Spies & schoolboys • We do not get extra points for collecting information in the hardest or most expensive way. • Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go. • Find, Get, Buy, Steal--in that order.

® Conclusion III Make sense or add value • If you cannot make sense of the raw data, or add value, you are not creating intelligence. • It’s about actionable answers, not about secrets, or spies, or toys. • Intelligence saves time, lives, money, and honor.

® Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information! ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT 95% of cost 20% of value 5% of cost 80% of value OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

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