The Eye of the Storm or the Eye

The Eye of the Storm or the Eye of the Needle: The Challenge of Climate Change Energy Star® Participants Meeting Toronto, May 4, 2006 Ralph Torrie Vice President, ICF International Toronto, May 2006 rtorrie@icfi. com

Five warmest years of the past century have all occurred in the past decade First 8 months of 2005 Source: NOAA at ftp: //ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/pub/data/anomalies

Models can also be tested for their ability to realistically simulate past climate behaviour Source: IPCC 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes [Houghton, J. T. , et al. (eds. )]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. p 11.

IPCC projects that the world will become MUCH, MUCH warmer Source: IPCC 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R. T et al. (eds. )]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. p 140.

Probabilistic approach suggests sensitivity near 3. 2°C Source: Murphy et al. 2004 Nature 430: 768 -772 (also Science 305: 933)

How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable. If we are to stop that, we cannot wait for new technologies like capturing emissions from burning coal. We have to act with what we have. This decade, that means focusing on energy efficiency and renewable sources of energy that do not burn carbon. We don't have much time left. Jim Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, February 2006

How do we defend ourselves against climate change? . .

Start by remembering the basic “house rules” for Planet Earth… ý Everything goes somewhere. ý Everything is connected. (You cannot do just one thing. ) ý Nature is an independent power, and does not negotiate.

Environment Society Economy

Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios corresponding to different stabilization levels Stabilization Targets

Low Emission Futures – Context for a “Made in Canada” Approach 1. Ongoing population growth 2. A large and growing fossil fuel production sector oriented to export markets 3. Energy intensive industries (paper, metals, steel, industrial chemicals) important to Canadian economy, although in relative decline and also climbing value added curve in globalized market 4. Fuel and electricity relatively inexpensive

Long term and deep emission reduction scenarios take us outside the climate change policy box, supports a “fresh look” at strategies and options

Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Canada (full cycle emission allocation)

Beyond Kyoto – A Low Emissions Path for Canada

Source: R. Torrie, “Low Emission Scenarios in an Expanding, Industrialized, Oil Exporting Economy: The Case of Canada”. http: //2050. nies. go. jp/2050 sympo/cop 11_side/Torrie_COP 11. pdf

JAPAN Source: Dr. Junichi Fujino, “Development of Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050” http: //2050. nies. go. jp/2050 sympo/cop 11_side/Fujino_COP 11. pdf

GERMANY Source: Martin Weiss, “Long Term Climate Policy Scenarios for Germany”. http: //2050. nies. go. jp/2050 sympo/cop 11_side/Weiss_COP 11. pdf

AUSTRALIA Source: Hugh Saddler et al. , “A Clean Energy Future for Australia”. http: //www. enerstrat. com. au/publications. html

AUSTRALIA -- ELECTRICITY FUEL MIX IN 2001, 2040 BASELINE, & 2040 SCENARIO 2 Source: Hugh Saddler et al. , “A Clean Energy Future for Australia”. http: //www. enerstrat. com. au/publications. html

INDIA Source: PR. Shukla, “Low Carbon scenarios for India to 2050”. http: //2050. nies. go. jp/2050 sympo/cop 11_side/Shukla_COP 11. pdf

A Possible “Made in Canada” Low Emission Future FIVE PRIORITIES • Continued improvements in energy productivity of economy, including Factor Four Efficiency gain • Cogeneration of electricity • Biofuels • Carbon sequestration • Decarbonize electricity generation

Collateral Benefits • Co-benefits of emission reduction will be critical to success: – Reduced air pollution and improved public health – Higher performance buildings – Economic competitiveness in global market – Enhanced urban environments – Employment generation across a broad spectrum of skills and professions – Technological advancement

Synergies • Emission reductions are consistent with some exogenous trends in Canadian society – these synergies can be exploited to promote lower emissions (urban redensification, refurbishment of post-War infrastructure, higher value added industrial production)

Implementing Low Emission Futures – The Eye of the Needle Ø Low emission futures have policy implications well beyond conventional energy policy. They must be developed in a broader context of sustainable development Ø Energy price based strategies perhaps necessary but not sufficient Ø Technology deployment fundamentally economic, but constrained by underdeveloped organizational and financial infrastructure, entrenched advantage of commodity suppliers, and externalization of environmental costs. Ø Global marketing, rapid deployment will characterize demand side developments. Ø Local authorities must engage; community transformation Ø Climatic conditions will deteriorate for decades, regardless of mitigation effort

Economic, Energy and Emissions Growth in Canada, 1970 -1998

Energy Growth in Canada, 1970 -1998

Thank you! Ralph D. Torrie rtorrie@icfi. com