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The Evolving Internet Traffic, Engineering, and Roles - A Study of Performance and Economic Models Joseph D Houle, K. K. Ramakrishnan, Rita Sadhvani, Murat Yuksel, Shiv Kalyanaraman September, 2007 © 2007 AT&T Knowledge Ventures. All rights reserved. AT&T and the AT&T logo are trademarks of AT&T Knowledge Ventures.

Internet Industry’s Challenge… Provide cost-effective Internet access while: • Applications continue to diversify relative to demands on the network • The number of users continues to grow at an annual rate of 12. 5%. • The average traffic per user is expected to grow even faster at 25% per year. 2

Network Model Descriptions Best Effort model – Best Effort N D D BE=(1 -g) D (e. g. priority) Diff= g D Scheduling Differentiated model – Premium (no partitioning of resources) D Best Effort Term D Total traffic. Assumed to be the same for both the Differentiated and Best Effort models. Assumptions are the same for Best Effort on unmanaged networks. g Proportion of differentiated traffic as a fraction of the total ( Diff =premium traffic arrival rate; BE = best effort arrival rate) D, N Total capacity of the differentiated and Best Effort model, respectively N - D Required Extra capacity = - ( N - D) / D *100 4 Explanation Required Extra Capacity (REC) = - / * 100

Single Link Analysis for Required Extra Capacity (REC) Analyze the Required Extra Capacity (REC) of a single link with differentiation vs. best effort using standard Poisson (M/M/1) and MMPP models: • Required additional capacity to maintain the same loss performance for premium traffic. • Required additional capacity to maintain the same delay performance for premium traffic. 60% Utilization, Link Delay 20% Premium ~1 k packet queueing delay 80% REC a=0. 5, r=4 (slightly more bursty than M/M/1) 5 20% Premium ~1 k packet queueing delay 160% REC a=0. 5, r=8 (even more bursty)

Network Delay Analysis for Two Topologies Build network models (based on Rocketfuel ISP Backbone topologies) out of the link model • Use the more conservative MMPP assumptions of a=0. 5, r=4 • Averages the queueing delays and utilizations Network Delay 60% Utilization 40% Premium 4 ms Ave Queueing Delay 60% REC Abovenet Topology 6 60% Utilization 40% Premium 4 ms Ave Queueing Delay 70% REC Sprintlink Topology

Network Loss Analysis for Two Topologies Same Rocketfuel topologies as Delay Same MMPP burstiness assumptions (a=0. 5, r=4) with a buffer size of 60 packets Network Loss 60% Utilization, 40% Premium 0. 4% loss prob. 70% REC Abovenet Topology 7 60% Utilization, 40% Premium 0. 4% loss prob. 60% REC Sprintlink Topology

Engineering Summary Network Engineering Summary • • • Required Extra Capacity is useful to look at… In all situations the (REC) is significant for typical operational scenarios, more than 50% extra capacity. With continued growth in traffic and varity of applications, differentiation will continue to be important Results are sensitive to assumptions; most assumptions in this analysis are conservative. Different topologies produce the same shape curve and similar values. Even with small amount of video traffic, we still need lots of extra capacity. Internet Business Model Evolution Advertising Revenue - examples in content delivery markets • Multi-sided Markets - overview • Flows: • – – 8 Revenue Traffic