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The Evolving Broadband Home – Coming Challenges for Service Providers Sandy Teger and Dave The Evolving Broadband Home – Coming Challenges for Service Providers Sandy Teger and Dave Waks Co-Founders Broadband Home Central May 19 – 21, 2003 Madrid, Spain

About Us: Professionally Sandy – 18+ years with AT&T; multimedia strategy director Dave – About Us: Professionally Sandy – 18+ years with AT&T; multimedia strategy director Dave – Founder and R&D director, Prodigy Services Company Together as System Dynamics Inc. – Specialists in residential broadband – Consult for companies affected by residential broadband • Projects included strategy, business economics, competitive analysis – Operate Broadband. Home. Central. com as industry resource – Research and write Report on the Broadband Home • Free monthly Internet newsletter • 71 active readers in Spain – more than 50% service providers 2 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

About Us: Personally 3 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc. About Us: Personally 3 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Broadband Is Transforming the Home Broadband access is the foundation for much of what’s Broadband Is Transforming the Home Broadband access is the foundation for much of what’s changing in home technologies Broadband access and PC networking are growing Everything is going digital The consumer electronics industry has a huge investment in driving sales of networked appliances The worlds of the PC, home entertainment and telephones are starting to overlap and merge People are spending their time and money on buying and using “this stuff” because it’s compelling Keeping up will be a challenge to broadband service providers 4 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

“Broadband Home” Broadband access and in-home distribution network – Any kind of access – “Broadband Home” Broadband access and in-home distribution network – Any kind of access – Any kind of network Multiple broadband devices – PCs and emerging appliances High speed – Megabits: Millions of bits per second – To the home, in the home and from the home “Always on” connection – Continuous connection – From the home to the outside world, and to the home from the outside 5 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

The Emerging Broadband Home ISP Services Broadband Access Home Gateway DSL Cable Modem Wireless The Emerging Broadband Home ISP Services Broadband Access Home Gateway DSL Cable Modem Wireless Fiber Satellite Powerline

The Promise of Broadband Digital radio and TV everywhere in the home Big jukeboxes The Promise of Broadband Digital radio and TV everywhere in the home Big jukeboxes of music, movies, TV and games Voice and video conferencing Share photos and videos with friends and family Telemedicine Work from home as easily as in the office 7 Untethered access Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc. Control VCRs, AC, lights from anywhere

Broadband Tools and Toys for Work and Play Foundation • Broadband modem • Structured Broadband Tools and Toys for Work and Play Foundation • Broadband modem • Structured wiring • Home gateway • Ethernet switches • Wi-Fi • Home. Plug 8 Connected Devices • Multiple PCs – server, desktops, notebooks • Digital camera and camcorder • MP 3 player and networked digital audio player • Two PVRs • Several IP phones Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc. Media Applications • Photo and video software • Audio software • Music on demand Internet radio • Shutterfly

Our Broadband Home Movie Sandy and Dave’s Broadband Home 9 Copyright © 2003, System Our Broadband Home Movie Sandy and Dave’s Broadband Home 9 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Applications Creating Broadband Usage Application CE Device User Benefits BB Capability Used Shutterfly Digital Applications Creating Broadband Usage Application CE Device User Benefits BB Capability Used Shutterfly Digital camera Professional-looking photo projects Upload many photos; view projects Rhapsody Multimedia PC Listen to lots of music you don’t own; burn CDs of songs you like Always-on streaming downloads Videowave Digital camcorder Create family videos; share with friends and family Today, load clips onto Web site Webcam View house/garden when traveling Continuous upstream Internet on TV Networked media player Weather, sports scores, etc. on demand on TV Standard Web page access DVR capabilities DVRs with big hard drives (e. g. , Ti. Vo , Re. Play) TV programs you want, when you want them; set up when away from home Always-on connectivity to DVR; download video to hard drive Broadband telephony IP telephones or MTAs Inexpensive phone calls, later add video, better voice quality Symmetric; video will require more bandwidth 10 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Top Trends Networked Consumer Electronics – TVs, stereos, digital cameras, digital video recorders, game Top Trends Networked Consumer Electronics – TVs, stereos, digital cameras, digital video recorders, game consoles, PDAs, etc. being built to connect and communicate Wireless Networking – 802. 11 g is “over the bar” for home entertainment – Qo. S still an issue for broadcast video Home Gateways – From simple (cable/DSL router) on up (advanced set-top boxes, Microsoft “Media Center Edition”, Pioneer “Digital Library”) Increasing Consumer Expectations – Faster, better, cheaper – Cut across gender, age and class 11 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Everything Is Going Digital 1992 Audio Players Video Players Still Cameras 2002 Camcorders Satellite Everything Is Going Digital 1992 Audio Players Video Players Still Cameras 2002 Camcorders Satellite TV Cable TV Broadcast TV Telephone New CE 12 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc. 2012

Increasing Demands on Broadband Access Applications, content and services Gateways and client devices Home Increasing Demands on Broadband Access Applications, content and services Gateways and client devices Home Networking Broadband Access New connected consumer devices and services demand more from the broadband access foundation 13 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Home “bandwidth budget” growing “Bandwidth budget” is total pipe size needed to accommodate all Home “bandwidth budget” growing “Bandwidth budget” is total pipe size needed to accommodate all the information being sent around the home – Includes bits from all the things that people want to interconnect Just like any budget, it keeps expanding! – People want to connect more devices • Not just PCs, but digital camcorders, MP 3 players, PVRs, games, . . – Each device is getting richer information • Digital cameras going from 4 to 6 to 8 megapixels • TV going from standard definition to high definition • Computer files going from data to incorporate video, special effects Consumer interest in entertainment will keep driving bandwidth to and within the home 14 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Challenges – Bandwidth and Symmetry Most broadband access designed for Web browsing – Relatively Challenges – Bandwidth and Symmetry Most broadband access designed for Web browsing – Relatively low speed both ways – Highly asymmetric, biased downstream Many new applications symmetric, some require high speed – Telephony – Video conferencing – Exchanging pictures and videos Optical fiber is good fit for new applications – Very high speed – typically at least 100 Mbps/home – Symmetric 15 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Challenges – The “Triple Play” North American cable operators will all offer “full bundle”: Challenges – The “Triple Play” North American cable operators will all offer “full bundle”: – Video: broadcast and VOD – Data: high-speed Internet access – Voice: primary service, largely packet-switched (Packet. Cable™) New optical fiber providers add even more – Fast. Web: Videoconferencing Will be challenge to incumbents – Lost customers are hard to win back – Hard to respond quickly with competitive video services 16 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

Summary Broadband will be taken for granted - like electricity Will extend to all Summary Broadband will be taken for granted - like electricity Will extend to all media and consumer electronics—becoming integrated into consumers’ lives The specifics will vary by country and culture Customer expectations will drive bandwidth and symmetry Incumbents will face growing pressure from competitors, customers and communities to meet these expectations “Coming events cast their shadows before. ” Thomas Campbell 17 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.

For More Information: www. broadbandhomecentral. com dave @ bb-home. com sandy @ bb-home. com For More Information: www. broadbandhomecentral. com dave @ bb-home. com sandy @ bb-home. com www. broadbandgurus. com 18 Beaver Ridge Road, Morris Plains, NJ 079501901 (973) 644 -4739 Fax (973) 538 -6003 18 Copyright © 2003, System Dynamics Inc.