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The Dividend Puzzle Fisher Black(1976) 892606 892644
The Pros and Cons of paying Dividends Pros: 1. Cash dividends can underscore good results and provide support to stock price. 2. Dividends may attract institutional investors who prefer some return in the form of dividends.
3. Stock price usually increases with the announcement of a new or increased dividends. 4. Dividends absorb excess cash flow and may reduce agency costs that arise from conflicts between management and shareholder
Cons: 1. Dividends are taxed as ordinary income. 2. Dividends can reduce internal sources of financing. Dividends may force one firm to forge positive NPV projects or to rely on costly external equity financing
3. Once established, dividend cuts are hard to make without adversely affecting a firm’s stock price.
如果公司有1000多餘的現金, 它可以選擇發放dividend 或者 是選擇投資於一個10 percent 的bill 為期 5年, individual tax rate 28 percent, corporate tax rate is 34 percent.
(i) 現在發dividend 1000 * (1 -0. 28)=720 * (1+0. 1*(1 -0. 28))^5=1019. 31 (ii) 五年後發dividend 1000 * (1+0. 1*(1 -0. 34))^5=1376. 53 1976. 53 * (1 -0. 28)=991. 1
In the Firm term personal tax rate < corporate tax rate => pay dividends personal tax rate > corporate tax rate => reduce dividends payments
(i) 公司發放股利 100 ordinary tax rate 28 percent 付 100 * 28% = 28 稅 (ii) 公司repurchase 價格在 100 原購買價格 60 capital gain rate 20 percent 付 (100 -60)*0. 2 =8 稅
Repurchase vs Dividends 由簡單的例題得知, repurchase 比發放dividend 能 夠躲掉更多的稅的負擔
Real-world factors forcing a high-dividend policy • Desire for current income • Uncertainty Resolution • Agent cost
Corporations Smooth Dividends
The Main points of this paper • Why do corporations pay dividends? • Why do investors pay attention to dividends?
• • • The MM Theorem If A Firm Pays No Dividends Taxes Transaction Costs What Do Dividend Change Tell Us How To 0 Hurt The Creditors Dividends As A Source Of Capital Do Investors Demand Dividends Portfolio Implications
The Miller. Modigliani Theorem Assumption: 1. no tax 2. no transaction cost
Case 1: A Firm Pays dividend 假設公司今天發放 2元的 dividend. 則其在市場的股票價 值會下降2元 =>dividend paid does not affect the value of its shares or the return to investors
Case 2: A Firm pays no dividend There are many ways for the stockholders of a firm to take cash out without receiving dividends
1. Repurchase its stocks. 2. Give stockholders jobs at inflated salaries 3. ordered goods from other firms owned by the stockholder at inflated prices.
Concluded in MM model: a firm that pays regular dividend will be worth the same as an otherwise similar firm that pays no dividend.
Taxes • In the investor aspect In real world dividends are taxed more heavily than capital gains => 在股利方面有較重稅務負擔的 投資人偏好不發放股利
• In the firm aspect If a corporation insist on paying out cash, it is better off replacing some of its common stock with bond. Because the interest of bond can be deductible but dividend can not.
Conclusion in Tax With taxes, investors and corporations both prefer small dividend or no dividend at all.
Transaction Cost The transaction can be costly so an investor may want to have dividend income. However, the corporation that pays no dividend can arrange for automatic share repurchase plans.
An automated system would probably cost about as much as a system for paying dividend. => The transaction cost does not tell us much about why corporations pay dividends
What Do Dividend Change Tell us • 投資人看待dividend 的角度 1. dividend becomes higher =>公司績效前景看好 =>股價高
2. dividend becomes lower => 公司績效前景差 => 股價低 不過長期看來, 公司的績效是符 合市場上的股價
The fact that dividends changes often tell us things about the corporations making them does not explain why corporations pay dividends.
Shareholders VS Creditors When a company has debt outstanding the stockholder prefer firms paying dividends, and this is against creditor. But, this explanation does not go very far.
Dividend as a source of capital 1. Cuttingthe dividend is one of the lowest cost source of fund available to the company => This is a reason to expect company not to pay dividend.
2. A company has no positive NPV projects and can not rise money externally should keep his dividend => There may be a reason to keep dividend
Do investors demand dividends? Q: Is it rational to hold high dividend stock? A: 必須考量自身的稅務負擔狀況 高稅務負擔者=> low dividend stock 低稅務負擔者=> high dividend stock
In fact, it is difficult or impossible to tell whether investors demand dividends or not. So it is hard for a corporation to decide whether to eliminate its dividend or not.
Portfolio Implications An investor who emphasizes a certain kind of stock in his portfolio is likely to end up with a less well-diversified portfolio than he would otherwise have.
Low Tax Rate Investors If investors demanding dividends dominate market => much more people buy high dividend stock => price is higher => Expected return is lower
=> 低稅務負擔的投資者, 為了追求 portfolio, 必須選擇低 dividend 的股票
High Tax Rate Investor • how much should they emphasize low dividend stocks? • At what point will the loss of diversification offset the increase in expected return
The harder we look at the dividend picture the more it seems like a puzzle