The development application of Additive Manufacturing

The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3 D Printing -looking to the past to inform the future. Stockholm, Sweden – 19 th September 2013 Dr Phil Reeves – lead consultant, Econolyst

Contents (50 -minutes) A personal introduction Agreeing terms (AM or 3 DP) The principles of layer manufacturing explained Technology applications and trends The business drivers to technology adoption (users) Looking at the consumer 3 D Printing Eco-system (suppliers) • Projecting out the future • • •

About Econolyst • Econolyst is a UK based consultancy & research firm dedicated to the 3 DP & Additive Manufacturing • Established 2003 • Team of Engineers, designers, economists, mathematician, software developers, retail & HR people • Partnership with Nottingham University for technology development & materials characterisation • Work across the Western Europe, Scandinavia, USA, the Middle East & Far East • Fortune 500 client base

What do we do • Help companies ideate & embed AM/3 DP products into their brands, value chains & supply chains • Help AM software, technology & materials vendors with their technology & market strategy • Advise public & private sector investors on the dynamics of the AM/3 DP market place Point Lobos Capital

Current stuff that keep us busy! • Modelling the 10 -year convergence of 3 D Printing, open source electronics & robotics on the consumer electronics industry • Investigating the long terms innovation benefits for the wide scale adoption of consumer 3 D printing in a professional automotive design environment • Modelling the current and future economics for the use of 3 D Printing to support volume manufacturing • Technology mapping for the re-shoring of ‘digital footwear’ – technology & data pathways

The development & application of Additive Manufacturing & 3 D Printing -looking to the past to inform the future-

Q) Is 3 D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing?

Q) Is 3 D Printing the same as Additive Manufacturing? • YES, but: A)3 DP is typically associated with people printing at home or in the community B)AM is typically associated with production technologies & supply chains C)BUT they both produce parts by the addition of layers

What is Additive Layer Manufacturing 3 DP processes are automated systems that take 2 -dimensional layers of computer data and rebuild them into 3 D solid objects

Why is this layer thing so different • Subtractive – Material is successively removed from a solid block until the desired shape is reached (2. 5 M BC – Hominids) • Fabricative – Elements or physical material are combined and joined (6, 000 BC – Western Asia) • Formative – Mechanical forces and, or heat are applied to material to form it into the desired shape such as bending, casting and molding (3, 000 BC – Egyptians) • Additive – Material is manipulated so that successive pieces of it combine to make the desired object (1984 – Californians)

This is not a new concept • • • • 1902 - Peacock patent for laminated horse shoes 1952 - Kojima demonstrated layer manufacturing benefits 1967 - Swainson files US patent for dual light-source resin system 1981 - Kodama publishes 3 solid holography methods 1982 - Chuck Hull experiments with SLA 1984 - Chuck files US patent 4, 575, 330 1986 - 3 D Systems formed, others follow 1987 - Rapid Prototyping became a commercial reality 1990 - Layer manufactured parts used as casting patterns 1995 - Layer manufactured parts used as tools 2000 - Layer manufactured parts used as production parts 2011 – 45, 000 ALM machines globally (in total since 1984) 2012 – 45, 000 new machines sold in 1 -year

How do ALM process build layers Infrared Wire feed E-Beam Powder bed Thermally How to make a layer Laser Extruded Cut from stock Chemically Powder feed Jetting Solvent jetting Jet & Flash Photocurable Laser spot Binder jetting DMD/DLP

Commercial ALM systems in 2013 • Sintermask • High Speed sintering • Arcam EBM • Sciaky EBM 3 • Stratasys – FDM • Maker. Bot clones • Solidscape • 3 D Invision DP • 3 D Systems - SLS • EOS - LS & DMLS • Phenix, Concept Laser, Realizer, Renishaw, SLM Solutions - SLM • Optomec – LENS • Accufusion - LC • Voxel Jet – PM • Solidica – Ultrasonic compaction • Mcor Matrix • CAM-LEM CM 100 • Z-Corp – 3 DP • Pro. Metal • F-Cubic • Objet – Polyjet • 3 D Invision HR/XT • 3 D Systems – SLA • Nextfactory – Digiwax • DMEC - SLA • Envision. TEC – Perfactory • Envision. TEC – Vanquish • 3 D systems – Vflash • DWS – Micro SLA • Asiga - Pica

So what can we print after 29 -years? Waxes Cerami c materi als Alumina Polyme ric material s ABS Aluminium Tissue / cells Mullite Polyamide (nylon) Tool Steel Zirconia Filled PA Titanium Silicon Carbide PEEK Inconel Thermosetting epoxies Cobalt Chrome Organic material s Beta-Tri calcium Phosphate Ceramic (nano) loaded epoxies Metallic materia ls Copper Silica (sand) PMMA Stainless steel Plaster Polycarbonate Gold / platinum Graphite Polyphenylsulfone Hastelloy ULTEM Aluminium loaded polyamide

3 DP is just an enabler – many applications Prototypes (Rapid Prototyping) Casting Patterns (Rapid Casting) Tool cavities (Rapid Tooling) Direct Parts (Additive Manufacturing)

But what about the value Rapid Prototyping $$ Rapid Casting $ Rapid Tooling $ Additive Manufacturing $$$$$$

Why is AM becoming so important to manufacturers (I want to be a user!)

The core business drivers to AM adoption 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Economic low volume production Increased geometric freedom Product personalisation Improvised environmental sustainability New supply chains and retail models Increased part functionality

1. Enabling low volume production • Enabled the economic manufacture of low volume complex geometries and assemblies – Reduces the need for tooling (moulds / cutters) – Reduced capital investment & inventory – Simplifies supply chains & reduced lead times

Example – unit volumes of 1 • Bentley is a subsidiary of Volkswagen • Vehicles from $250 K - $1 M • In-house polymeric and metallic AM capacity

Example – Low volume production • Problem – customer with limited mobility needed a reversed dashboard • Production substrate produced by RIM • Manual modification time consuming • Solution – Laser Sintered AM part with leathers and veneers Images courtesy of Bentley

Example – Low volume production Images courtesy of Bentley

2. Maximising design complexity • AM enables the production of highly complex geometries with little if no cost penalty – – – Re-entrant features Variable wall thicknesses Complex honey combs Non-linear holes Filigree structures Organic / genetic structures

Example – Delphi Diesel Pump • Conventional product manufactured by cross drilling an aluminium die casting • Multiple machining operations • Multiple post processing ops (chemical deburring, hole blanking, pressure testing) • Final product prone to leakage

Design the product around the holes

Example – conceptual Diesel Pump • Produce the part as one piece using Selective Laser melting on Aluminium

3. Increasing part functionality • AM enabled multiple functionality to be manufactured using a single process – Replacing surface coatings & textures – Modifying physical behaviour by designing ‘mechanical properties’ – Embedding secondary materials (optical / electrical) – Grading multiple materials in a single part

surface design for bone ingress Material: Build time: cups in hours Ti 6 Al 4 V 16 Implants (production) • Accetabular cups 18 Images Courtesy of ARCAM – www. arcam. com

Example – Heat dissipation surfaces

Example – Energy absorption

Multifunctional technology platforms

4. Product Personalisation • Individual consumer centric products, with customer input – – – Medical devices Consumer goods Cultural & emotional artefacts Online design tools Co-creation

www. makielab. com • Children engage with technology

There are many new interfaces

5. Life cycle sustainability • Product lifecycle improvements in economic and environmental sustainability – – – Reduced raw material consumption Efficient supply chains Optimised product efficiency Lighter weights components Reduced lifecycle burden

Case study – aerospace cabin component

Design optimisation for AM Topologically optimised Machine from solid billet Complex lattice Images courtesy of Loughborough University

How does the weight compare Scenario 1 – Machined from solid (0. 8 Kg) Scenario 2 – Selective Laser melted lattice (0. 31 kg) Scenario 3 – Selective Laser melted optimised design (0. 37 Kg)

Lifecycle environmental benefit Process Raw Materials CO 2 Manufacture CO 2 Distribution CO 2 Usage CO 2 Life cycle Kg CO 2 Machining 100 Kg 2 Kg 5 Kg 43, 779 Kg 43, 886 SLM lattice 16 Kg 5 Kg 16, 238 Kg 16, 260 SLM optimal 18 Kg 7 kg 2 Kg 20, 339 Kg 20, 366 • Example based on 90 M km (Long haul) application

Sunday Times 13 th Feb 2011

Example – life cycle economic benefits • 0. 49 Kg saving per monitor arm • $1, 500 per annum in fuel savings (today's prices) • $45, 000 over 30 -year aircraft life • Product life span 5 -7 years (estimate) • Life-cycle economic saving $6. 5 K - $9 K • Machined part - $500 • SLM Part - $2, 500 • Capital investment repaid in 2 -years….

This is a step change in design

BUT - We can go much further

6. Supply chain realignment • New lean yet agile business models and supply chain – – – Distributed manufacture Manufacture and the point of consumption Demand pull business models Stockless supply chains Chainless supply chains (home manufacture)

Rapid retailing linking the internet to 3 DP $50. 00 each 60, 000 month $36 M P/A

Figure Prints – 4, 000 per month $6. 2 -million (6 -machines)

“But what about consumer 3 D Printing? ” (I want to be a supplier BUT - It’s all just Hype!)

There is certainly a lot of hype

The hype debunked “Bigger than the internet” “A new world order” “you can print anything”

Bigger than the internet……………. . “Bigger than the internet”

How big is 3 DP compared to www? THIS BIG

0. 0002% 3 DP users to web users 2, 405, 518, 376 internet users THIS BIG 60, 000 home 30, 000 commercial Lots of opportunity !!!! http: //www. informationisbeautiful. net/

Will 3 DP ever be bigger than www? 2012/13 figures 90, 000 machines globally (max) in 2012 288% annual growth (max) 2, 405, 518, 376 internet users in 2012 46% annual growth Global population 7, 017, 846, 922 in 2012 1. 2% annual growth 2025 convergence!!!!

You can print anything…………. “you can print anything”

BUT - you can’t print everything. . Dumb systems with dumb software Geometric limitations Thermal management issues

Consumer 3 DP is getting bigger • www. compete. com

So where are the opportunities to get involved in the consumer 3 D printing space?

The 3 DP Ecosystem Materials Design solutions Data management Integrated solutions Machines Products

Front end software Materials Design solutions Back-end software Integrated solutions Machines Products

TINKERCAD – front end design tools

Digital Forming – web constraint modelling This is a pall point pen This is a bedside light This is a lemon squeezer

Back end software Materials Front-end software Data management Integrated solutions Machines Products

Aggregation sites • Website that broker the flow of digital 3 D Printable date • Sometimes free, some pay-per-download • Some integrated with professional back-end 3 D Print fulfilment businesses • Emerging platforms focused on consumer machines (3 DHUBS)

Machines Materials Front-end software Back-end software Integrated solutions Machines Products

A lot of simple FDM systems have been successful

Formlabs Concept Seed investment R&D Kick starter $2 M working capital Product

Materials Front-end software Back-end software Integrated solutions Machines Products

People are sourcing and slicing materials

Plastic isn't the only material www. chocedge. com

Filabot – machines to process waste

Products Materials Front-end software Back-end software Integrated solutions Machines Products

Using on-line print fulfilment then sell products

Integrated solutions Materials Front-end software Back-end software Integrated solutions Machines Products

www. makie. me (action dolls made in London)

Figure Prints – big ticket integration

A $100 B industry !!!!!! Materials Front-end software Back-end software Integrated solutions Machines Products

All the drivers are pushing the right way Technological changes 32% of the world online Social networking The $20 computer Socioeconomic changes Environmental concerns Increasing old age Increasing population 4 G and wireless Cloud based storage 100 Mb broadband Cloud based computing Political instability Shifting wealth Reducing birth rate Power & water consumption

Also…… Our world of 3 DP/AM is changing! “The only constant I am sure of is this ever increasing pace of change – Peter Gabriel 2000”

The world is changing Access to finance Removal of barriers Access to innovations & skill Routes to market

Machine prices are tumbling SLA Viper Si 2 - $250 K Formlabs Form 1 - $3. 2 K Fortus MC 400 - $150 K Giga. Bot- $4 K Envision. Tec perfactory - $79 K B 9 Creator - $3. 5 K

Exponential growth (288% PA)

Material prices are tumbling Stratasys ABS - $297 Kg Makerbot ABS $48 Kg Injection moulding ABS - $2. 5 Kg Conversion $0. 02 Kg

Capabilities are increasing / accelerating Replicator 2 X Replicator 2 capability Replicator Jan 2013 Thing-o-matic Sept 2012 Jan 2012 Cupcake Sept 2010 Rep. Rap March 2009 18 -months 14 -months 10 -months 4 -months

Technology convergence High er um ns Low Co CAPABILITY Not good enough Professional Barriers to technology adoption Too expensive High COST Low

Forecasting the future IP protection Material Cost Hardware cost Laser power / scan speed Print heads / capacity Productivity (Kg/h) 2003 2008 2013 T 0 2018 T 1 2023 T 2

Econolyst – IBM consumer electronics study

You have to love what you do. .

The 3 DP candidates

Reverse engineer the parts

Identify most appropriate solution • Size, volume, surface area • Metallic • Loading – – – Selective Laser Melting Direct Metal Laser Sintering Electron Beam Melting Direct Metal Deposition Digital Metal Printing • Polymeric – – – Selective Laser Sintering Stereolithography Polyjet Projet Voxeljet FDM – Structural – cyclic • Environmental conditions – Water – Detergent – Humidity – Thermal loading & cycling • Functionality – Water tight – Shock proof – Aesthetic

AM viability & economic modelling

Environmental lifecycle modelling

Understanding the current BOM

Product / technology roadmaps

Realities……. Bosch Washing machine T 0 – 2013 Current BOM $310 Value of non 3 DP Parts $235 Value of 3 DP displacement $75 Just not meant to be parts 3 DP technology innovation T 0 3 DP cost of manufacture $11, 56 Cost parity 4 3 DP augmented product $11, 79 9 T 1 – 2018 T 2 2023 $235 $75 $337 $83 $572 $318

Realities……. IPhone 5 T 0 – 2013 Current BOM $202 Value of non 3 DP Parts $195 Value of 3 DP displacement $7. 00 parts Expensive personalised luxury T 0 3 DP cost Acceptable price delta $123 of manufacture 3 DPNo great improvement (don’t wait) $318 augmented product T 1 – 2018 T 2 2023 $195 $7. 00 $12. 39 $5. 66 $207. 3 $200. 6 9 6

The next 10 -years Bosch Washing machine T 0 – 2013 Current BOM $310 Value of non 3 DP Parts $235 Value of 3 DP displacement $75 Just not meant to be parts 3 DP technology innovation T 0 3 DP cost of manufacture $11, 56 Cost parity 4 3 DP augmented product $11, 79 9 T 1 – 2018 T 2 2023 $235 $75 $337 $83 $572 $318

Realities……. In-the-ear hearing aid T 0 – 2013 Current BOM $313 Value of non 3 DP Parts $310 Value of 3 DP displacement $0 parts Currently 3 D Printed on mass 3 D Printed & assembled on the high street T 0 3 DP cost of manufacture $3 3 D Printed digital assemblies $313 3 DP augmented product T 1 – 2018 $310 $3 T 2 2023 $100 $200. 6 2 $0. 38 $12. 38 $310. 3 $112. 3 8 8

Summary • Don’t promise your mum a 3 D printed washing machine unless you know she is going to live until 2023 • Start worrying (a lot) if you are machining metal cases for IPhones • Take AM seriously if you are engaged in activities involving the manufacture of high value, low volume parts today, and high volume tomorrow • Start developing a consumer 3 DP strategy & an industrial AM strategy – they WILL converge • Look to the blue water – the red water is already getting very bloody ………. .

Questions Econolyst Ltd The Silversmiths Crown Yard Wirksworth Derbyshire, UK DE 4 4 ET +44 (0) 1629 824447 Skype: econolyst phil. reeves@econolyst. co. uk