The decision will be made anyway How

The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to print” Keith Goodman Jason Field Dstl

Menu • Background – Why evidence-based decision-making – Context of MOD analysis – SDSR • Supporting decision-making – Timing – Push vs pull – Exploitation, Exploitation • Measurement – Next time… © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Analysis. . . • The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision-makers • brings together – objectives, options and assumptions – data – expert judgement • examines their implications in an iterative way, in close collaboration with problem owner and other stakeholders … • … through the use of models © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Why does UK MOD do analysis? • UK Government aspires to evidence-based decision making – scientific evidence • HM Treasury delegates significant financial authority to MOD on the basis that processes are in place to ensure “good” decisions are made – independent scrutiny • The future is uncertain – multiple potential worlds & scenarios • Many decisions are complex and interdependent – models © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

bje cti v su ly ing as Force/ Campaign/Society da ta inc t ex nt Systems of Systems/ Operational/Groups co Measures of System Effectiveness in rta ce un re ly ing Measures of Force Effectiveness Strategy as re Measures of Policy Effectiveness inc e Hierarchy of analysis Systems/Tactical/Individuals Measures of Performance Dimensional Parameters Physical/Physiological Processes © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

The Defence Green Paper “Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for a Strategic Defence Review” 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Uncertainty & Affordability Complexity & the Use of Force Adaptability & Influence Partnership People, Equipment & Structures Key Questions for the Future SDR • Published 3 Feb 2010 • Accompanied by – – Future Character of Conflict Global Strategic Trends • Where should we set the balance between focusing on our territory and region and engaging threats at a distance? • What approach should we take if we employ the Armed Forces to address threats at distance? • What contribution should the Armed Forces make in ensuring security and contributing to resilience within the UK? • How could we more effectively employ the Armed Forces in support of wider efforts to prevent conflict and strengthen international stability? • Do our current international defence and security relationships require rebalancing in the longer term? • Should we further integrate our forces with those of key allies and partners? • Should we refocus our current efforts on Afghanistan? • To publicly open the debate ahead of the anticipated Defence Review © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Political change • General Election: 6 May 2010 • First UK hung parliament since 1974 – end of 13 years in office for Labour • Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition agreed – Prime Minister: David Cameron – Defence Secretary: Dr Liam Fox – inherited a difficult financial position • Immediate consequences: "Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid there is no money. Kind regards - and good luck!" – National Security Council created – formal start of Strategic Defence & Security Review – fixed-term parliaments: next election in May 2015 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Shaping the SDSR “The SDSR will make a clean break from the military and political mindset of cold war policies. It will be strategic, cross-government and comprehensive, covering all areas of defence and security. ” Sof. S for Defence RUSI 14/6/2010 “The review will need to provide a step change, not salami-slicing. We will have to bring defence policy, plans, commitments and Resources into balance, confront the harsh facts of the economic climate in which we operate …. . ” Sof. S for Defence Hansard Hof. C 21/6/10 “Let me sum up the Ministry of Defence’s approach to the SDSR. First, relevance: our posture and capabilities must be relevant to the world we now live in Secondly, realism: resources are tight for the country as a whole, defence is no exception Thirdly, responsibility: as a nation, …” Sof. S for Defence RUSI 14/6/2010 “… protecting our way of life and providing security for our citizens is the primary and overriding duty of Government, that is why the SDSR must become a national endeavour and all in Government must have the political resilience, strength, will and resolve to see us through. ” Sof. S for Defence Hansard Hof. C 21/6/10 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

The SDSR Analysis “… So, let me set out the process of analysis we are going through at the moment. We are contrasting cost savings and the capability implications with the risks that we face in the real global security environment. This means assessing any proposed change in a current programme or platform, against a series of criteria including: • First, the cost saving in years zero to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 plus. • Second, the capability implications - what capability will be lost as a result of this decision and what other assets do we possess that might give us the same or a similar capability? • Third, the operational implications - what operations that we currently undertake, or are likely to undertake, will we be unable to undertake as a result of this change? • Fourth, the ability to regenerate the capability, at what cost and in what timeframe. • And fifth, the risk in the real world that this capability currently protects us from or is likely to protect us from in the foreseeable future. ” Sof. S for Defence, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 13 August 2010 © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Analysis for the SDSR • Force structure Analysis • Workstrand support • Synthesis • But … – not talking about the detail of the SDSR, but a reflection on the role of analysis in decision making. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Decision timing Question (? ) Analysis Politics Industry impact Bias Pre-conceptions Other? © Dstl 2009 Synthesis Advice Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

So … • Analysis should be – timely – useful – understandable © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Timeliness • Rate of production of analysis vs rate of progress in context/decision/question – analysis slower than context • chaos – analysis = context • catch-up – analysis faster than context • convergent, optimised Timely delivery of analysis – pre-emptive research (shelfstacking) – modular programme design – logical interface/access tools – being ‘part of the team’ © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull – Support to critical decision points Meaning analysis done ‘for customers’, generally confined to their presubmitted question Meaning analysis done ‘to customers’, not confined to a pre-submitted question • timing and scope – Analysing the ‘So what? ’ • cost, effectiveness, risk – Trust and confidence – Effectiveness in communicating analysis © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull – Quick pace • Rapidly delivered advice – High-level • ‘big-hand, tiny map’ © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull – Implementation. ‘So What? ’ • • • detail, deeper analysis programme implications test and validate assumptions greater consideration of complexity of issues less time pressure (perhaps? ) © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Complexity Time pressure Rapid analysis Pre (and during) SDSR Utilisation of the pre-stacked shelves © Dstl 2009 More considered design More detail Post-SDSR ‘So What? ’ Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull – Closeness to decision-makers, independence is important – Good exploitation pre-SDSR could increase desire for Evidencebased decision support post-SDSR (including ‘business as usual’) – Exploitation of ‘pulled’ analysis easier (in theory? ) © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull Less evidence-based decisions (Poor decisions? ) Not important © Dstl 2009 Asked Important Not asked Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

So … • Analysis is of utility within the SDSR – bespoke analysis and ‘meta-analysis’ • Analysis support to SDSR will continue • Lessons can be learnt that will help develop the use of analysis for evidence-based decision-making – not just for Strategic Reviews © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Next time? • Fixed-term elections • Regular Strategic Defence Reviews – every Parliament? • Impact for Analysis? • know (in advance) its coming • know the process • be a part of the process • know what’s important, and the metrics • know the questions © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

End Questions? Keith Goodman Jason Field Dstl Portsdown West Portsdown Hill Road Hampshire PO 17 6 AD tel +44 (0) 23 9253 2144 kgoodman@dstl. gov. uk Dstl Fort Halstead Sevenoaks Kent TN 14 7 BP tel +44 (0) 1959 892217 jrfield@dstl. gov. uk