The Day After Democratizing Elections

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The Day After: Democratizing Elections in Post-Communist Europe and Eurasia Sharon Wolchik Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow International Forum for Democratic Studies National Endowment for Democracy Washington D. C. February 4 th, 2009 The views expressed in this presentation represent the analysis and opinions of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff

Selected Cases Successful Cases Failed Cases Country Year of Elections Slovakia 1998 Armenia 2003 Croatia 2000 Armenia 2008 Serbia 2000 Azerbaijan 2003 Georgia 2003 Azerbaijan 2005 Ukraine 2004 Belarus 2006 Kyrgyzstan 2005

Successful Cases Democracy Scores

Failed Cases Democracy Scores

Non-Attempted Cases Democracy Scores

Slovakia

Croatia

Serbia

Ukraine

Georgia

Kyrgyzstan

Successful Cases Corruption

USAID Democracy Assistance Total Democracy and Governance (DG) Assistance per Capita ($) 1990 -2004 Average DG Assistance per Capita ($) for Two Years Prior to Election Percentage Change in DG Assistance for Two Years Prior to Election Percentage Growth in Electoral Assistance for Two Years Prior to Election Croatia 1. 29 1. 82 -54. 5% +1. 3% Georgia 1. 24 2. 23 +41. 5% +172% Serbia 3. 15 1. 28 +340% +111% Slovakia 0. 44 1. 13 -20. 5% +12. 8% Ukraine 0. 30 0. 47 +40. 7% +145% Kyrgyzstan 0. 98 No data Armenia (2003) 2. 03 3. 58 +19. 0% -35. 4% Azerbaijan (2003) 0. 51 0. 87 +2. 9% +54. 3% Belarus 0. 22 No data Source: Project Dataset (1990 -2004) from “Cross-National Research on USAID’s Democracy and Governance Programs”

Successful Cases GDP Growth (%)

Reelection of Winning Coalition First Subsequent Election Reelected Out of Power Country Election Slovakia Parliamentary - 2002 Croatia Parliamentary - 2003 Serbia Parliamentary - 2003 Ukraine Parliamentary - 2006 Georgia Presidential/ Parliamentary - 2008 Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary - 2007

Civil Society Development 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 00/99 1998 1997 Slovakia 1. 50 1. 25 1. 50 1. 75 2. 00 2. 25 3. 00 3. 25 Croatia 2. 75 3. 00 2. 75 3. 50 Serbia 2. 75 3. 00 4. 00 5. 25 5. 00 N/A Georgia 3. 50 4. 00 3. 75 4. 25 4. 50 Ukraine 2. 75 3. 00 3. 75 3. 50 3. 75 4. 00 4. 25 4. 00 Kyrgyzstan 4. 50 4. 50 Source: Freedom House, Nations in Transit, 1997 -2008

Thank You!

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Successful Cases Electoral Process 7 6 5 Slovakia Croatia Serbia 4 Georgia Ukraine 3 Kyrgyzstan 2 1 1998 00/99 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Successful Cases Civil Society 7 6 5 Slovakia Croatia Serbia 4 Georgia Ukraine 3 Kyrgyzstan 2 1 1998 00/99 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Successful Cases National Governance 7 6 5 Slovakia Croatia Serbia 4 Georgia Ukraine 3 Kyrgyzstan 2 1 1998 00/99 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Successful Cases Changes in Post-Election Scores Election Democracy Civil Society Electoral Process 1/2 2008 ~ Croatia 2000 4. 36 3. 64 -0. 72 3. 50 2. 75 -0. 75 4. 25 3. 25 -1. 00 Georgia 2003 4. 46 4. 79 +0. 33 4. 00 3. 50 -0. 50 4. 75 = Serbia 2000 5. 67 3. 79 -1. 88 5. 18 2. 75 -2. 43 5. 25 3. 25 -2. 00 Slovakia 1998 3. 80 2. 29 -1. 51 3. 25 1. 50 -1. 75 3. 75 1. 50 -2. 25 Ukraine 2004 4. 82 4. 25 -0. 57 3. 68 2. 75 -0. 93 4. 25 3. 00 -1. 25 Kyrgyzstan 2005 5. 67 5. 93 +0. 26 4. 50 = 6. 00 = Armenia 2003 4. 83 5. 21 +0. 38 3. 50 = 5. 50 = Armenia 2008 5. 68 5. 21 -0. 47 3. 50 = 5. 75 5. 50 -0. 25 Azerbaijan 2003 5. 59 6. 00 +0. 41 4. 50 5. 25 +0. 75 5. 75 6. 50 +0. 75 Azerbaijan 2005 5. 55 6. 00 +0. 45 4. 48 5. 25 +0. 77 5. 88 6. 50 +0. 62 Belarus 2006 6. 59 6. 71 +0. 12 6. 75 6. 50 -0. 25 6. 88 7. 00 +0. 12