Скачать презентацию The climate challenge Climate mecanisms The Скачать презентацию The climate challenge Climate mecanisms The

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The climate challenge The climate challenge

Climate mecanisms Climate mecanisms

The greenhouse effect Rayonnement solaire Infrarouge % 26 100 % 4% Piégeage 153 Wm-2 The greenhouse effect Rayonnement solaire Infrarouge % 26 100 % 4% Piégeage 153 Wm-2 H 2 O 20% CO 2 , CH 4, N 20 50% Conduction, Evaporation 390 Wm-2 +15°C

The greenhouse effect n n A natural phenomenon Makes life on Earth possible Higher The greenhouse effect n n A natural phenomenon Makes life on Earth possible Higher temperature: liquid water is available n Brings inertia to the system n n Main gases responsible: Carbon dioxide (CO 2) n Methane (CH 4) n Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) n Water vapour (H 2 O) n… n n Direct link to the carbon cycle

The carbon cycle The carbon cycle

The imbalance of the carbon cycle n Vegetation / Atmosphere n n Oceans / The imbalance of the carbon cycle n Vegetation / Atmosphere n n Oceans / Atmosphere n n n Respiration : 60 Gt / year Photosynthesis : 62 Gt / year Net result = - 2 Gt / year In solution : 92 Gt / year Release : 90 Gt / year Net result = - 2 Gt / year Deforestation : +2 Gt / year Burning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / year In total : n n +8 Gt / year released by human activities THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!

The phenomenon of warming, causes and consequences The phenomenon of warming, causes and consequences

Causes of global warming n Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution: n n Causes of global warming n Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution: n n CO 2 : + 31 % CH 4 : + 150 % N 2 O : + 15 % 3 crucial « events » n n n Industrial Revolution Post war boom Globalisation of exchanges

Causes of global warming n Emitting sectors in France: n And globally : Causes of global warming n Emitting sectors in France: n And globally :

The prospects for climate change n The IPCC: Notes the state of affairs in The prospects for climate change n The IPCC: Notes the state of affairs in research and technologies n Publishes a report every 4 years n Works with scientific consensus n Prudent in its positions by nature n n Yet they are not reassuring us…

The future evolution of the climate n n Today: the highest concentration of CO The future evolution of the climate n n Today: the highest concentration of CO 2 and CH 4 since 400, 000 years This is only the beginning … if do don’t do anything

The prospects for climate change n n No more doubts on the existence of The prospects for climate change n n No more doubts on the existence of future climate disorders Sudden and irreversible changes The facts confirm the most pessimistic forecasts Yet retroactive changes are not even taken into account: melting of the permafrost, destruction of the ice shelfs at the poles …

What concrete consequences? n Central scenarios: n n Highly probable scenarios: n n Between What concrete consequences? n Central scenarios: n n Highly probable scenarios: n n Between + 2°C et + 4°C Between + 1, 1°C et + 6, 4°C The facts confront us with the most pessimistic scnearios

Concrete consequences n With + 2°C : n n n n With + 3°C Concrete consequences n With + 2°C : n n n n With + 3°C : n n n Decrease of agricultural yields Risk of famine : + 200 million people Lack of water : 1, 8 billion people Rising water levels: : 10 million people Expansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million people Extinction of 25 to 40% of all species - 30% of the yield of wheat in India Risk of famine : + 600 million people Lack of water: 4 billion people Rising water levels: 170 million people Numerous islands erased from the globe With + 4°C : n n n Collapse of agricultural yields Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of people Rising water levels: 330 million people

Stop temperature rise at+ 2 °C n n + 2 °C : danger limit Stop temperature rise at+ 2 °C n n + 2 °C : danger limit How do we do it? Stabilise the temperature n Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s (450 ppm) n Bring emissions back to natural « recycling » capacity n Divide worldwide emissions by half n The factor 4 to garanty equal rights for all n

Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people… Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people… …or to divide by 3 with 9 billion people Berger 2005

To stop at + 2 °C n n Emissions must decline before 2015 Developed To stop at + 2 °C n n Emissions must decline before 2015 Developed countries (compared to 1990) -25 à -40% in 2020 n -80 à -95% in 2050 n n From 2020 on, developed countries must deviate substantially from the trajectory (except Africa) n World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050

Climate policies of the dominant Powers Climate policies of the dominant Powers

The general trend n n n Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and needs of The general trend n n n Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and needs of capital n Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report) n Priority of technological solutions n Creation of new markets n New developement cycle of capital : « green capitalism » Point to the responsability of emerging countries Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal policies

The Kyoto protocol n Some positive aspects : n n n « common but The Kyoto protocol n Some positive aspects : n n n « common but differentiated responsabilities » Concrete targets and sanctions BUT noumerous problems n n n Insufficient targets: -5, 2 % (reduced to -1, 7%) Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken into account Carbone sinks =Emission reductions Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM, MOC…) Emission rights and carbon market: a form of privatisation of parts of the atmosphere

Recent evolution of policies by the great powers n Insufficient commitments: n n n Recent evolution of policies by the great powers n Insufficient commitments: n n n Ever more flexible mecanisms n n n -20% in 2020 for the EU Obama wants less than Kyoto Their role was limited with Kyoto New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon sequestration, nuclear, biofuels… A specific market for the forests: REDD Make the lower classes take the brunt of the effort (ex : Carbon Tax ) The answers to the climate and the economic crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public policies: cars, public transport…

In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of barbaric management n n In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of barbaric management n n n New Orleans Tuvalu, Vanuatu The « Climate » report of the Pentagon: « the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by famine and by disease will decrease the size of the population which will readapt to the carrying capacity » . Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US National Security, SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003

A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided (in part…) A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided (in part…)

Energy savings n n A policy of « small gestures » is not sufficient Energy savings n n A policy of « small gestures » is not sufficient Fight against attempts to make you feel guilty An important part of what you buy, of transportation … is unavoidable Necessity of collective action to make possible a lifestyle that saves energy and is low in carbon use

Saving energy n What possibilities? n Suppress useless productions n n Energy efficiency n Saving energy n What possibilities? n Suppress useless productions n n Energy efficiency n n Armement, the army… Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers… Advertisements Rehabilitation of housing Norms for electrical devices Norms of car engines… Reorganisation of society (the most important source) n Ex. of transportation : n n Urbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centre Problemes of freight : production « just in time » , international division of labour according to the cost of labour

Renewable energies n n Solar : an IMMENSE potential Its caracter limits valorisation in Renewable energies n n Solar : an IMMENSE potential Its caracter limits valorisation in a capitalist system: Low density in energy n Difficult to appropriate n n n Necessity of a new orientation of research Necessity of making available and of large distribution of technologies: not only for those who can pay …

Budgets R&D Energie (AIE) Researhc to be urgently redirected! En. R 8, 1% Budgets R&D Energie (AIE) Researhc to be urgently redirected! En. R 8, 1%

Our anticapitalist project Our anticapitalist project

Necessity of an anticapitalist strategy n n n The market is powerless: n A Necessity of an anticapitalist strategy n n n The market is powerless: n A change which is too radical n Time is too short n Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens » Capitalism confronts social forces with a dilemma n « To save nature or to increase the conditions of exploitation of the workers » n Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature versus a lowering of the cost of the work force Our ecosocialist project : n Planning based at the same time on the democratically determined needs and taking into account the ecological problems

Transitional method linked to an emergency program n A pedagocial role: n n n Transitional method linked to an emergency program n A pedagocial role: n n n Demonstrate that it is possible Confront capitalism with its contradictions Link the social and the ecological dimension n n The crises are fed by the same mecanisms: competition, search for profits, dictatorship of the markets … Put the fulfillment of social needs and the respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of our program and our struggles

An emergency plan Examples of sectorial demands n n Suppression of unnecessary and harmful An emergency plan Examples of sectorial demands n n Suppression of unnecessary and harmful industries The building sector : n n Transportation of commodities: n n n Free public transport Development of the possibilities for public transport infrastructure Stop the development of suburbia « reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres The energy sector: n n n Ban on long distance transport by road Public policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transport Transportation of people: n n Public service of housing and renovation For a public service of the whole of the energy sector Nationalisation of the big companies in the sector Decentralisation of the means of production of energy … in order to allow control by users and by employees Agriculture : food souvereignty and organic/ecological farming n n Drastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizers A break with the productivist logic in the farming world

An emergency plan Profound transformations n n n Reorganisation and transformation of labour People’s An emergency plan Profound transformations n n n Reorganisation and transformation of labour People’s control on production Get out of the contradiction consumer/worker: n n Reduction of working hours must be a central axis of our program Indispensible industrial reconversions : Garanty employment, contracts, wages and work collectives n This must be realised by the workers themselves n