The Challenge of Delegitimacy to Israel s National Security

The Challenge of Delegitimacy to Israel’s National Security 10 th Annual Herzliya Conference, February 2010

Structure of Presentation Attack on Israel’s Political-Economic Model Strategic Existential Implications of Attack Response: Conceptual Framework

Israel’s National Security Priorities Pre Nov ’ 47, main arena political-diplomatic Post Nov. ’ 47, military-security arena takes precedence Organizing logic Politicaldiplomatic arena Deterrence Military. Main Working Assumptions So enemy won’t initiate war security arena Existential Threat: Physical Main Arena: Military Security Early November 29, 1947 Warning To prepare forces IDF Protects the Nation Decisive Victory Over enemy 1933 1939 1947 1960 1970 Time 1980 1990 ~2000

The Political Threat: The Resistance Network From Logic of Destruction to Logic Mainof Implosion Working Assumptions Existential Threat: Physical From Logic of Implosion to Strategy Main Arena: Military-Security of Implosion IDF Protects the Nation ? Nasrallah: “We do not need Military tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker. Superiority web. ” than a spider (7/31/06) Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like the Soviet Union disappeared. ” (12/2/06) Delegitimacy Abu Overstretch Mussa Marzouk: Asymmetry “failure of the political process will bring about the destruction of Israel (5/15/07) Aim: Sabotage Two-State Solution

Delegitimacy: From Kibbutz to Kibbush The Left: From Kibbutz to Kibbush (Occupation) European Muslims: From ambivalence to radicalization Toronto Anti-Zionist Israelis /Jews Networked: Generated from Hubs ‘Branding’ demonization: Israel = Apartheid Blurring line between criticism & delegitimacy Using human rights to make pro-Pal trendy Madrid Bay Area Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions London Aim: Promote One Man, One Vote

Mid-Term Report & Feedback Loop Since WWII, more states have collapsed politically than militarily Mid -Term Report Increasing equivalence between IL & Axis of Evil Less room to maneuver vs. Resistance Network Fundamental Delegitimacy Exercising universal Logic of Implosion jurisdiction against Israel Undermine Two-State Solution Promote One State Narrative Internationalization of the IL Arabs issue Danger: Implosion

Relevancy Gap Potential Existential Political-Security Threat Resolving IL-Pal conflict solves problem Primarily problem of Hasbara Political attacks signify nothing new IDF military and tech superiority enough Victory won on battlefield Diplomatic arena not critical to national security Delegitimacy doesn’t hinge on IL-Pal Ideology, not arguments New dynamic; new threat Israel suffers from strategic inferiority Synchronized Victory Political threat is strategic

The Response: Guiding Principles Existential Threat: Plan Accordingly Networked Response to Networked Threat Foreign Policy Est. : From Wishes to Budget Focusing on Hubs Intelligence agencies focus on Hubs Attacking Catalysts Engaging NGOs Synchronized Victories Branding Israel PM designates body that Hard Critics Difference b/w Soft & ‘owns’ issue Reorganizing MFA Inter-agency co-op on critical FP issues Relations Based Diplomacy