The C 4 I Revolution Smart Mobs

® The C 4 I Revolution: Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, & Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has Done Improves National Security Robert David Steele OSS. NET 9 January 2003 San Antonio, Texas

® 9 -11: Systemic Failure

® 9 -11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot • Collection: – Satellites deaf – Spies incompetent • Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode • Translation: lack of personnel or funds • Processing: no single central Op. Intel “plot” • Analysis – Did not connect the dots (dots found to have been known) – Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history) • Liaison: “business as usual, ” no demands • Mind-set: muddled

® 9 -11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog • World Trade Center 1 st Bombing – Sidelined to law enforcement – Documents not translated – Ignored bin Laden’s open declaration of war – No change to visa or border security process • Global Terrorism – Ignored warnings on cockpit and airport safety (industry against) – Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as “cost of doing business” – Accepted lack of action by other nations

® Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding Digital English Language Oral/Unpublished NRO NSA Foreign Languages* Analog FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *29 predominant languages, over 3, 000 distinct languages in all.

® Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination More Satisfying 50% 0% Less Costly Does Not Exist OSINT HUMINT STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 50%

® World War III Players Nation. States Companies Bacteria Citizens Gangs

® Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL),

® Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

® Water & War Hyper-Arid 1 3 4 Arid 5 Semi-Arid 6 Sub-Humid Water Pollution 2 Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

® Global Threats to Local Survival Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Food Security 33 Countries Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Corruption Common 80 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

® Asymmetric War • Whatever it takes-– – – – Fight dirty Fight smart Sabotage Bug bombs Electronic attack Anthrax = panic “Ju jitsu” warfare • $500 K = $100 B loss

® Public Health Vulnerabilities on the Home Front DATA Corruption ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers 13

® STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There” Offense Against Fixed Ground State as Threat and Target OLD NEW Individual as Threat and Target Offense Against Distributed Groups Defense of Infrastructure Here at Home PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR

® Unbalanced Power Smart Mobs • Liberated Thinking • Nomadic Connections • Global Grid Power • Swarmed Resources • 24/7 Always On • Geospatial Foundation • Reputation is Power Dumb Organizations • Stove-Pipe Drones • Hard Copy Files • File Clerks Weak Link • Locked-Up Resources • 9 -to-5 Compartments • Legal Foundation • Power is Reputation

® Dealing With Smart Mobs Does Not Work • Nuclear Bombs • Aircraft Carriers • Tanks & Artillery • Secret Satellites • Not So Secret Spies • Young Kid Analysts • Political Bluffing Could Possibly Work • Deep Understanding • Financial Incentives • Focused Education • Coalition Intelligence • Coalition Special Forces • Tracking Individuals • Killing Individuals

® C 4 I Big Picture Four processing quadrants IV - Organizational Intelligence Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Organizational Memory System Data Visualization E-Commerce EXTERNAL CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) Patents, Etc. Meta-Data Automated Analysis Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring Trade Secrets TECHNICAL Project/Group Management III - External Information Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge HUMAN Training Personal Brand Cell # Churning (Rotationals) Internal Reporting INTERNAL I - Knowledge Management PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Trip Reports II - Collaborative Work

® Finished Intelligence and Reporting Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Desktop Publishing and Word Processing A Collaborative Work B C Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Clustering and Linking of Related Data Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Graphic and Map. Based Visualization of Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Automated Foreign Language Translation Open Literature Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Non-Text Data Generic Analytic Functionalities Structured Argument Analysis Modeling and Simulations Detection of Changing Trends Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Processing Desktop: Detection of Alert Situations Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Restricted Information

® Processing Desktop No Easy Solutions Plan **Powerize Copernic Extend Analyst Notebook Collect **C-4 -U Scout SYSTRAN+? Other CATALYST Elements? Excaliber Topic **CI Spider GMS, Athens **E-Sense Aerotext **Corporate Intelligence Service **Knowledge. Works OSALAT Information Portal, Comprendium Crime. Link **Wisdom. Builder Identifier, SIFT, Analyst Workbench On. Topic, Labrador **Plumtree Corporate Portal **Strategy! Intelligent Miner **Text. Analyst For Text **Wincite **Market Signal Analyzer Groove? Share Analyze EDGE? Clear. Forest Suite Report ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report Content Extractor Mind. Map?

® New C 4 I Strategic Priorities • • Open Source Collection Multi-Media Processing Analytic Toolkits Analytic Tradecraft Defensive Security Leadership Training Culture

® Administration’s Shortfalls • • • Unbalanced Staff Failed Intelligence Maginot Line Military No Counterintelligence Education Broken National IT Fragmented Public Health Broken Water - No Strategy Energy - No Strategy

® White House Staff Upgrade

® Security Shortfalls • Intelligence Failed, Not Changing the Cultures • Heavy Metal Military, Useless 90% of the Time • No National Counterintelligence Agency or State & Local Counterintelligence, Private Sector Uncovered

® Prosperity Shortfalls • Education and IT fragmented (content, connectivity, coordination, C 4 security on Net) • Public health unfunded, children falling by wayside • No water or energy strategy

® South America Today 15% of the Conflict, <5% of the Budget? GOOD BAD UGLY Costa Rica Haiti Mexico Chile Colombia Brazil Uraguay Venezuela Cuba El Salvador Argentina All Others Culture Violence Poverty

® Regional Agile Forces for Peace Strategists Advise Policy Citizen Education Domestic Threats Water, Food, Health Regional Network Electronic Security Set Standards, Stand Watch OAS CTF Ground Truth Force on Force Train Local Services Small Wars Observe with Warrior’s Eyes Control Territory Constabulary Stabilize Failed States

® Regional Intelligence Center Chief of Center Country A Deputy for Collection Country B OSINT HUMINT IMINT SIGINT Deputy for Processing Country C Digitization Translation Visualization Analytic Support Deputy for Counterintelligence Country E Deputy for Analysis Country D Warning Estimative Countries Issues Deputy for Covert Action Country F

® Necessary Changes in Emphasis Striking a better balance • Must strike a better balance between – – – technical (-) and human assets (+) secret (-) and open sources (+) hard power (-) and soft power (+) reaction (-) and prevention (+) unilateral (-) and truly multilateral combined operations (+)

® Proposed Strategy: 1 + iii: Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities 1 i i i BIG WAR SMALL WAR OOTW REAR AREA Base Rights Small Wars Water Intelligence Protect Canal Constabulary Food Border Patrol Protect Oil Ground Truth Health Port Security Training Environment Electronic Education Public Health 50% 250 B vs. 400 B 15% 75 B vs 20 B 20% 100 B vs. 20 B 15% 75 B vs. 38 B

® Contact Information • • Robert David Steele OSS. NET POB 369 Oakton, VA 22124 Email: bear@oss. net Voice: (703) 242 -1700 Fax: (703) 242 -1711 Web: www. oss. net