THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS

THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS, & THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS Amy E. Smithson, Ph. D Senior Fellow

OVERVIEW • THE BASICs – WEAPONS – HISTORICAL ROLE • CHEMICAL TERRORISM – CASE STUDIES • PROLIFERATION CONCERNS • THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS – AUSTRALIA GROUP – CWC

CHEMICAL WARFARE IN A NUTSHELL • SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND, TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION • MOST WIDELY PROLIFERATED • TACTICAL WEAPON • ROLE IN CONFLICTS: – WWI = SIGNIFICANT – WWII = MARGINAL – IRAN-IRAQ WAR = SPORADIC, BUT IMPORTANT

THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS • TWO APPROACHES: • UNITARY • BINARY • KEY PROPERTIES: – MODE OF ACTION: (e. g. , INHALATION) – LETHALITY/TOXICITY • CAVEAT: THEORETICAL v. ACTUAL – STATE: (e. g. , AEROSOL, LIQUID) – PERSISTENCE

ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS • TYPES OF AGENTS: – – – CHOKING BLISTER BLOOD NERVE INCAPACITANTS • TWO TYPES OF DELIVERY: – POINT SOURCE – LINE SOURCE

DELIVERY SYSTEMS

CHEMICAL AGENTS TYPE/ AGENT EXPOSURE ROUTE TIME TO INITIAL SYMPTOMS PERSISTENT? BLOOD/ CYANIDE INHALATION 15 SECONDS NO CHOKING/ PHOSGENE SKIN/ INHALATION INSTANT NO BLISTER/ MUSTARD SKIN/ INHALATION 1 -10 MINUTES YES NERVE/ SARIN SKIN/ INHALATION 1 -10 MINUTES NO NERVE/ VX SKIN/ INHALATION 1 -10 MINUTES YES INCAPACITATING/ INHALATION RAPID NO CN

STEPS TO ACQUISITION • RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT • PRECURSOR PROCUREMENT • PRODUCTION: – PILOT – LARGE SCALE (BULK AGENT) • • TESTING WEAPONIZATION STORAGE INCORPORATION INTO DOCTRINE & EXERCISES DF Alcohol, promoter

CHEMICAL DEFENSE • DETECTION – EARLY = KEY – MODEL HAZARD => AVOID CONTAMINATION • INDIVIDUAL PROTECTION – CUMBERSOME – EFFECTS FIGHTING CAPABILITY • MEDICAL THERAPY: – AUTOINJECTORS • DECONTAMINATION

STATUS AT THE STATE LEVEL CWC = 188 MEMBERS CWC HOLDOUTS – – EGYPT ISRAEL NORTH KOREA SYRIA CWC MEMBERS – – – – – ALBANIA CHINA IRAN INDIA LIBYA PAKISTAN RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES

SYRIA ACTIVE CHEMICAL PROGRAM WITH STOCKS • CHEMICAL PROGRAM DATING TO 1970 s RELIANT ON FOREIGN ASSISTANCE – RECEIVED CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PRECURSORS FROM RUSSIA, EGYPT – 1980 s: POSSIBLY DEVELOPED Al-Safir DOMESTIC NERVE AGENT CAPACITY – MULTIPLE PRODUCTION SITES – SUSPECTED STOCKPILE OF MUSTARD, SARIN, VX, POSSIBLY WEAPONIZED • DEGRADED SCUD, AERIAL DELIVERY CAPACITY

• KNOW-HOW APPEAL TO TERRORISTS – COOKBOOKS – PATENT LITERATURE – MA LEVEL EDUCATION • SUPPLIES ON THE OPEN MARKET – CHEMICALS – PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT – DISPERSAL SYSTEMS • AS “EASY” AS RADIOLOGICAL DEVICES • MASS CASUALTY OR MASS TERROR – WASHINGTON, DC: 1, 000 KG OF SARIN, LINE SOURCE ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHT • 3, 000 TO 8, 000 DEAD (OTA, 1993) – QUICK IMPACT

AUM SHINRIKYO’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM • 1985 -1995: $30 MILLION • 100 INVOLVED • AGENTS SYNTHESIZED – VX ─ SOMAN – TABUN ─ MUSTARD – SARIN ─ HYDROGEN CYANIDE • SARIN PRODUCTION GOALS – 70 TONS IN 40 DAYS – 2 TONS DAILY, 17. 6 PINTS/BATCH • 2 SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS

AUM’S INEPTNESS • PROBLEMS AT SATYAN 7 – WORKER EXPOSURES – 3 OFF-PREMISES LEAKS • NOVEMBER 1994 SAMPLES • BACKWARDS SPRAYER • NOVICE MASKS • SUBWAY ATTACK – 30% STRENGTH – DISPERSAL METHOD • NOT THE WESTERN SAFETY MODEL

AL QAEDA & CO. • BIN LADEN’S HOLY DUTY MANDATE • ENCYCLOPEDIA OF JIHAD • PLOTS: ROME, LONDON, AMMAN • AFGHANISTAN – CHEMICAL COOKBOOKS + LABS – CNN DOG TAPE • TAKIFIRI CHLORINE ATTACKS (2007) • OTHER – ATTEMPTS TO ACQUIRE OTHER MATERIALS – CROPDUSTER INQUIRIES

TERRORIST EVENTS WORLDWIDE: 1997 -2006 TOTAL EVENTS: 23, 135 BOMBS: 12, 806 ARMED ATTACKS: 5, 798 ASSASSINATIONS: 1, 689 KIDNAPPINGS: 1, 393 786 ARSON: HOSTAGE 58 HIJACKING 32 OTHER/UNKNOWN: 524 BIOLOGICAL: CHEMICAL: FOOD/WATER SUPPLY: RADIOLOGICAL: 19 27 6 0 Source: RAND/MIPT Terrorism Incident Database

TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: I • AID VIA FORMER WEAPONEERS – ABOUT 6, 500 EXPERTS – OVER 12 FACILITIES • NEXT GENERATION AGENTS: – R&D BEGAN IN 1970 s – NOVICHOK #5: • 5 -8 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS VX • RED ARMY APPROVED • TONS PRODUCED – NOVICHOK #7: • 10 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS SOMAN • 10 s OF TONS PRODUCED – CONCEPT: BURY IN AGROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY • CZECH AGENTS • APPEALS TO “LONE WOLF” ACTOR(S)

TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: II • NEW DISCIPLINES, TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION, SPEED OF ADVANCES PATHOGEN DATE SYNTHESIZED # OF BASE PAIRS POLIO 2003 7. 741 1918 INFLUENZA 2005 13, 500 MYCOPLASMA GENITALIUM GENOME 2010 1, 080, 000 SMALLPOX ? ? ? 186, 102 • CROSSING OF CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS • NOVEL NONLETHALS

TECHNICAL PLUS UPS: III MICRO-REACTORS • HIGH SURFACE AREA TO REACTANT RATIO – – ENERGY, COST EFFICIENT MORE PRECISE CONTROL = SAFER FASTER GREENER • PROBLEM-SOLVING TECHNOLOGY: – – – ON DEMAND PRODUCTION REDUCE DEVELOPMENT TIME HIGHLY, EXOTHERMIC REACTIONS MAKE UNSTABLE PRODUCTS DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE PRODUCTS • NUMBERING UP = MULTI-TON PRODUCTION

POISONOUS SHORT CUTS

INDUSTRIAL + TRANSPORT SECURITY • COMMERCIAL PLANTS – GATES + FENCES + GUARD(S) NO GUN(S) – EMPLOYEE SCREENING? – SAFETY LABELS; OTHERWISE, VARIABLE • PORTS: ADVANCE NOTIFICATION • RAILWAYS: – TANKERS = SAFETY LABELS • TARGETS: – EASILY SCOUTED – GO TO LOCAL BAR • TACTICS: EXPLOSIVES, REACTANTS (H 20)

INDUSTRIAL SABOTAGE CONSEQUENCES 4, 713 3, 973 2, 306 1, 430 855 586 123

THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS • • • 1899 HAGUE CONVENTION 1925 GENEVA PROTOCOL AUSTRALIA GROUP 1997 CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM • SOUND DEFENSES • INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION

AUSTRALIA GROUP • ORIGINS: HINDER USE IN 198 Os IRAN-IRAQ WAR • HARMONIZATION OF EXPORT CONTROLS: – 63 CHEMICALS – DUAL-USE EQUIPMENT • ACTIVITIES: – – END-USER CERTIFICATES NOTIFICATION OF REFUSALS NO UNDERCUT POLICY INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE • 40 COUNTRIES + EC

CWC PROVISIONS • BANS DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTION, STOCKPILING & USE • ALLOWS DEFENSE • ALL MEMBERS DESTROY: NONDISCRIMINATORY • DECLARATIONS • INSPECTIONS: – ROUTINE • MILITARY • INDUSTRY – CHALLENGE • AUTOMATIC EXPORT CONTROLS – SCHEDULE II CHEMICALS • RIOT CONTROL AGENTS: – NOT IN WARFARE – YES FOR DOMESTIC RIOT CONTROL

CWC BENCHMARKS • • 188 MEMBERS INSPECTIONS: 4, 167 IN OVER 81 STATES AGENT DESTROYED: 62% WEAPONS/CONTAINERS DESTROYED: 45% • 70 PRODUCTION FACILITIES: CLOSED – 43 DESTROYED – 21 CONVERTED

CWC DIFFICULTIES • 10 -YEAR DESTRUCTION DEADLINE MISSED: – U. S. & RUSSIA WILL NOT MEET 2012 (OR 2021) • DISTRIBUTION OF INSPECTIONS • DECLARATIONS & DOMESTIC IMPLEMENTATION – PROMPT FROM UN RES. 1540

CWC SHORTCOMINGS • U. S. EXEMPTIONS: – NATIONAL SECURITY – LABORATORY ANALYSIS • NO CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS • EXPANSION OF EXPORT CONTROLS TO SCHEDULE III CHEMICALS • RIOT CONTROL LOOPHOLE? • NOT KEEPING UP WITH TECHNICAL ADVANCES: – NOVICHOKS – MICROREACTORS • APPLICABILITY TO SUB-NATIONAL ACTORS • ENFORCEMENT