The 4 th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented

The 4 th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Tingting Ma 1, 2, Alan Porter 1, Jud Ready 1, Chen Xu 1, Lidan Gao 3, Wenping Wang 1, 2, Ying Guo 1, 2 1 Georgia Institute of Technology 2 Beijing Institute of Technology 3 Chinese Academy of Sciences

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Index • Summary • Introduction • Data and methodology • Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) • Conclusion • Acknowledge • References

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Summary Research Significance • The great uncertainty of new and emerging sciences and technologies • To enhance competitive participants’ technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. Technology Opportunity Analysis Model • Multi-level framework • Patent data Result of Case Study • The most promising pathway to advance DSSCs • Potential organizations that may improve DSSCs technology • Collaboration opportunities • Market forecasting

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Introduction TOA is proposed by Alan Porter & Michael Detampel • Combing monitoring with bibliometric analysis • To identify emerging technologies for campus-wide strategic planning Morphology Analysis – (Yoon & Park, 2004) • Keywords-based morphology analysis • Patent data • To elicit the definite promising configuration of technology Technology Delivery System - (Wenk and Kuehn, 1977) • Socio-technical systems model • To identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation • Dynamic development processes from R&D to the market

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Data and methodology TOA Framework Technology Opportunities Analysis R&D opportunities Competitive opportunities Market opportunities R&D analysis Competitive analysis Market analysis Global technology environment Competitive environment Market environment Intelligence information

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Data Derwent World Patents Index (DWPI) A multi-stage Boolean search strategy • Create main search terms - a variety of DSSC technical terminology • Enrich those search terms - different expressions of DSSCs -closely related technical structures. • Check search terms -excluding their retrieval overlap with the main search. • Combine the terms and evaluate them -randomly testing and assessing retrieval results • Further revise our search terms Data cleaning – Vantagepoint software 3079 records from 1991 -2010 on DSSCs

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Methodology R&D analysis • Define technical structure of morphology • Extract keywords and classify them • Technology component analysis Competitive analysis • Assignee-technology analysis • Co-assignee analysis Market analysis • Home countries/family countries matrix • International assignee profiling

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) R&D analysis • Define technical structure of morphology

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) R&D analysis • Extract keywords and classify them Dye, dyes, pigment, sensitizers, photosensitizer… Ruthenium dye, ruthenium complex dye, ruthenium, ruthenium based dye, Ru dye, metal complex dye, metal-complex pigment, N 3, N 719, organic dye, organicmetallic dye, organic dyes, nature dye, azo… I. Determine which phrases refer to the component technologies II. Extract keywords which are near those component-related phrases are extracted from the patent abstracts and claims III. Select those actually technically related keywords with experts Ruthenium dye, metal complex dye, N 3, N 719, Organic dye, organicmetallic dye, nature dye, azo dye… Metal complex dye: -Ruthenium dye, N 3, N 719, azo dye… Organic dye -Organicmetallic dye, nature dye, … IV. Merge phrases that refer to the same thing. V. Classify them according to experts’ opinion

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Global trend analysis of component technologies

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Component technologies analysis of China Technology portfolio map

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Countries’ patent ratio on important DSSCs component technologies

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Competitive analysis • Green nodes – assignees • Yellow nodes – technologies • Lines link assignees and technologies if they coincide in patents. • Thickness of lines represents occurrences—thicker lines represent a higher count of occurrences. • Most of the organizations are Japanese companies • Three Chinese organizations: CASX, CHSC, and IRIC • CASX - organic dye & gel electrolyte • CHSC - carbon counter-electrode • IRIC - platinum counter-electrode & Ti. O 2.

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Co-Assignee map in China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Competitive analysis Assignee-technology analysis on dye Co-Assignee map in China

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Case study: Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) Market analysis • Home countries/family countries matrix Home countries JP CN KR US EP 1897 142 246 83 186 58 10 Family 21 335 53 14 13 5 0 65 43 111 310 49 3 1 17 13 65 5 23 10 3 24 11 24 6 44 21 3 countries JP CN US KR EP AU IN Top assignees of China that have applied for patents abroad NO. Records 1 10 2 6 3 4 4 3 5 3 6 3 7 3 Patent Assignees IND TECHNOLOGY RES INST (ITRI) Patent Topics Gel electrolyte, Ruthenium dye, Fabricating method solar cell integrated in building EVERLIGHT USA INC (EVER-N) LED Ruthenium dyes ACAD SINICA (SNIC) Ruthenium Dyes, Organic Dyes ETERNAL CHEM CO LTD (ETER-N) ETHICAL INT TRADING & WAREHOUSING SHANGH (ETHI-N) TAIWAN TEXTILE RES INST (TATEN) TRIPOD TECHNOLOGY CORP (TRIPN) Thiophene dyes Ruthenium dyes Azo dyes, Fabricating method, Substrate Counter-electrode, gel electrolyte

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China’s technology opportunities on DSSCs R&D opportunities • Ti. O 2 - organic dye - gel electrolyte - platinum counter electrode predict to be the most promising pathway of DSSCs in recent future. • Enhancing competitiveness by developing organic dye, gel electrolytes and platinum counter-electrodes Competitive opportunities • CAS Changchun Applied Chemical Institution is the most potential organization. • Strengthen collaboration with the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne • Keep seeking more cooperation with global leading organizations • Continuously seeking and producing new, practical, and efficient dyes Market opportunities • China’s near-future market will be focused mainly in the home country. • Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) for country side. • China has an especially strong capability in dye research

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China’s challenges on DSSCs • Japan and South Korea is the most potential competitive in future market and is on the way of commercialization • China still has a long way to go for significant commercialization of DSSCs globally • It is important to encourage more companies to become involved in DSSCs. • China might also consider ways to promote collaboration between companies and academic institutions.

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Tips • This research implements a special in-depth analysis on DSSCs’ component technologies rather than more “macro” analyses. • The keywords selection and classification is challenging but benefits from inputs by knowledgeable colleagues. • It is important to carefully identify technology morphology with experts according to the purpose of that analysis.

A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China Acknowledgements • This research was undertaken at Georgia Tech drawing on support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Center for Nanotechnology in Society (Arizona State University; Award Numbers 0531194 and 0937591) and the Science of Science Policy Program—“Measuring and Tracking Research Knowledge Integration” (Georgia Tech; Award No. 0830207). • The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

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