The 2012 Jewish Vote National Ohio and Florida

The 2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys November 2012

Methodology • National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3. 5 percent • Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent • Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent • National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900, 000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study • Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 1

Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote Ø In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate. Ø The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics. Ø Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65 -26) and the economy (56 -32) to dealing with Iran (58 -26) and Israel (53 -31). Ø Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable). GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 2

Key Findings Ø Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews. • Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida • Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ; Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida Ø Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent. Ø Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. • Strong support for U. S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, even if it means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support) • 76 percent support the U. S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security • 72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters Ø Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines. GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 3

2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and Florida GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 4

2012 Presidential Vote GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 5

President and Congress Vote - Nationwide GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 6

2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies % Democrat / % Republican Obama Vote Shift 2008 2012 2008 to 2012 Total 53 / 46 50 / 49 -3 Jewish Unmarried women 74 / 26 70 / 30 -4 67 / 31 -3 Hispanics 67 / 31 71 / 27 +4 Voters under 30 years-old 66 / 32 60 / 37 -6 College Graduate 53 / 45 50 / 48 -3 Independents 52 / 44 45 / 50 -7 Whites 43 / 55 39 / 59 -4 No religion 75 / 23 70 / 26 -5 Other religion 73 / 22 74 / 23 +1 Catholics 54 / 45 50 / 48 -4 Protestants 45 / 54 42 / 57 -3 White Evangelicals 24 / 74 21 / 78 -3 Source: Exit poll data GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 7

Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections • • Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980 Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent Year 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 % of Jewish Vote Democrat 65 71 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 74 70 Republican 35 27 39 31 35 11 16 19 25 26 30 Independent 2 14 9 3 1 Source: Exit poll data GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 8

Impact of the Jewish Vote Jewish Population % 2012 Vote Results Among all Voters (Obama/Romney) New York 6 62 / 36 Florida 5 50 / 49 Pennsylvania 4 52 / 47 New Jersey 3 58 / 41 Nevada 3 52 / 46 Ohio 1 50 / 48 Source: 2012 exit polls GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 9

Presidential and Senate Vote Ohio / Florida Obama Sherrod Brown Obama Bill Nelson Romney Josh Mandel Romney Connie Mack GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 10

Very Few Romney Voters Considered Obama (ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 11

Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney (OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 12

Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012 In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John Mc. Cain? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney? Figure 13

Driving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 14

Country Direction Growing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 15

Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote National Ohio Florida The economy 53 60 51 Health care 32 33 29 Social Security and Medicare 23 16 23 The deficit and government spending 20 14 13 Taxes 12 7 5 Abortion 10 15 15 Israel 10 9 14 Terrorism and national security 10 10 9 Education 9 14 13 The environment 5 6 4 Energy 4 2 3 Illegal immigration 4 2 2 Iran 2 2 4 GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 16

Obama and Congress Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing? 31 Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Total disapprove GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 17

Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 18

Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National, Ohio, Florida Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 19

Favorability Ratings - National Bill Clinton Barack Obama The Democratic Party GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Joe Biden Benjamin Netanyahu Figure 20

Favorability – National, Ohio, and Florida National Ohio Florida Fav / Unfav Barack Obama 61 / 31 68 / 27 66 / 29 Mitt Romney 29 / 62 30 / 60 The Democratic Party 54 / 33 61 / 26 59 / 28 The Republican Party 26 / 64 24 / 63 Sherrod Brown -- 62 / 25 -- Josh Mandel -- 22 / 68 -- Bill Nelson -- -- 53 / 23 Connie Mack -- -- 14 / 59 Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- -- 46 / 28 GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 21

Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country National Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? Obama much better Obama total better Romney much better Romney total better GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 22

Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our Country Ohio Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue? 23 Brown much better job Brown total better job Mandel much better job Mandel total better job GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 23

Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country Florida Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? 30 34 Obama much better job Obama total better job Romney much better job Romney total better job GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 24

Impact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 25

Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 26

Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) Much more likely Obama Much more likely Romney Total Obama Total Romney GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote No difference Figure 27

Awareness of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 28

Impact of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) Much more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Obama GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Much more likely Romney Somewhat more likely Romney Figure 29

Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential Campaign National Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U. S. President? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 30

Impact of Netanyahu Involvement Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate) Much more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Obama GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Much more likely Romney Somewhat more likely Romney Figure 31

United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 32

United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 33

Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East Envoy Imagine for a minute that the winning U. S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy? Strongly support Total support GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Strongly oppose Total oppose Figure 34

Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include: • A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza • Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return • Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem • International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings • Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 35

Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 36

U. S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 37

American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. 1 st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. 2 nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. 1 st Statement Strongly 2 nd Statement Strongly 1 st Statement Total 2 nd Statement Total GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 38

Iranian Sanctions Need More Time vs. Failed Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. 1 st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work. 2 nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. 1 st Statement Strongly 2 nd Statement Strongly 1 st Statement Total 2 nd Statement Total GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 39

U. S. Focus in the Middle East Iran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U. S. should focus its attention in the Middle East? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 40

United Nations Relationship with Israel Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly? GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 41

United Nations Relationship with Israel by Age Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly? Very fairly Not at all fairly Total fair Total unfair GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Very fairly Total fair Not at all fairly Total unfair Figure 42

United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote – GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 43

United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status by Age As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote – GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 44

Support for Two–State Solution GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 45

Support for a Two-State Solution (SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 46

Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State (SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem. GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 47

Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 48

Two-State Solution Important for American Security A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States. GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Figure 49

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