The 2002 Challenge June 4 2002 The Honorable

The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002 The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of Political Affairs

2002 Election Outlook Senate Governors Democrat Seats Republican Seats Strong chance of R pickup - 5 Possible R pickup - 3 Strong chance of R pickup - 5 Possible R pickup - 8 Possible D Pickup - 6 Strong Chance of D Pickup - 2 Possible D Pickup - 6 Strong Chance of D Pickup - 9 No Contest - 18 No Contest - 8 House Competitive Republicans (25) Tier 1 - Competitive - 11 Tier 2 - Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8 Tier 3 - Worth Watching - 6 Vulnerable Democrats (10) Open Seats (19)

Battle for the House AK Competitive Republican Seats WA NH VT MT ME ND MA MN OR ID NY WI SD WY NV PA IA NE IL UT CO CA AZ KS NM TX OH NJ DE WV VA NC TN SC AR AL GA LA FL Competitive Republican Seats (25) Tier 1 - Competitive - 11 Tier 2 - Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8 Tier 3 - Worth Watching - 6 CT MD KY MS HI IN MO OK RI MI DC

Battle for the House AK Vulnerable Democrat Seats WA NH VT MT ME ND MA MN OR ID NY WI SD WY NV PA IA NE IL UT CO CA AZ KS NM TX OH NJ DE WV VA NC TN SC AR AL GA LA FL Competitive Republican Seats (25) Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10) CT MD KY MS HI IN MO OK RI MI DC

Battle for the House AK Competitive Open Seats WA NH VT MT ME ND MA MN OR ID NY WI SD WY NV PA IA NE IL UT CO CA AZ KS NM TX OH NJ DE WV VA NC TN SC AR AL GA LA FL Competitive Republican Seats (25) Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10) Competitive Open Seats (19) CT MD KY MS HI IN MO OK RI MI DC

Battle for the Senate AK WA VT MT +25% OR OR -0% WY MA MN -2% SD +23% NY WI PA IL UT CO +9% CA OK NM HI Strong Chance of R Pickup (5) Possible R Pickup (3) TX +21% OH IN KY MO +3% KS TN +4% AR +5% LA +7% MS AL NJ -15% DE WV VA MD NC +13% DC SC GA +12% FL Possible D Pickup (6) Strong Chance of D Pickup (2) No Contest (18) RI MI IA -0% NE AZ ME -5% ND ID NV NH NH +1% 2000 Bush Margin (%) shown CT

Battle for the Statehouse AK +31% WA MT OR -0% VT -10% ND ID MN -2% SD WI -0% WY IA -0% NE NV UT CO +9% CA -12% AZ +7% OK NM -0% HI -18% Strong Chance of R Pickup (5) Possible R Pickup (8) Possible D Pickup (6) Strong Chance of D Pickup (9) No Contest (8) MO KS PA -4% OH +3% WV TNTN +4% AR AL +15% ME ME -5. 1% MA -27% RI -29% CT NJ -17% DE VA KY MS TX +22% NY -25% MI -5% IL IN -12% NH NH +1. 3% NC SC +16% GA GA +12% LA FL +0% 2000 Bush Margin (%) shown MD -16% DC

2002 Campaign Outlook 2002 1 st Quarter Finances ($ millions)

What We’ll Face 2000 Political Expenditures AFL-CIO Emily’s List Planned Parenthood NAACP Sierra Club NEA NARAL Handgun Control LCV $45. 0 million $20. 0 million $14. 0 million $11. 0 million $ 9. 5 million $ 9. 0 million $ 8. 0 million $ 5. 0 million $ 4. 0 million $125. 5 million

The Strategic Landscape June 4, 2002 The Honorable Karl C. Rove Senior Advisor to the President

Public Opinion Summary of Recent Data President’s approval rating still very strong • Ratings at post-crisis high longer than any in history • Durability is testament to President’s leadership Decline is natural and expected • Rally effect fades as partisan allegiances reassert themselves • No evidence that Enron attacks, POTUS political activity or economy has significantly impacted the President’s rating Republican Party is in strong position • Congressional Republicans & Democrats at parity in the generic ballot - Republicans trailed in 1994 • GOP support on key issues

Public Opinion Summary of Recent Data Economic outlook • Confidence in current economy low • Americans optimistic about economic future

Unprecedented Support Gallup Presidential Job Approval Office of Strategic Initiatives

Presidential Job Approval Analysis Public Poll Average Office of Strategic Initiatives 5/28/02 Based on Gallup, Fox, ABC/WP, IBD & CBS/NYT

One Party Will Make History • For Republicans: White House party has won House seats in only 3 out of last 25 midterm elections • For Democrats: Only 3 times has either party gained House seats 4 elections in a row • For Republicans: White House party has lost Senate seats in 16 of 22 mid-terms since direct election Office of Strategic Initiatives

Presidents’ Standing Matters Average House Seats Lost by WH Party in Mid-Terms Presidential Approval <50% 41 lost Presidential Approval 50%-59% 20 lost Presidential Approval 60%+ Office of Strategic Initiatives 5 lost Source: NBC/WSJ

Mid-Term Political Landscape More Favorable to Republicans Control of Congress will turn on handful of races decided by local issues, candidate quality, money raised, campaign performance, etc. • Extremely Popular President • Recovering Economy • Increased Importance of National Security Issues • Redistricting • No Compelling National Issue for Referendum • Small Number of Competitive Races Office of Strategic Initiatives

Democratic Strategy • Support President on War • Question President’s Middle East Strategy • Attack on Domestic Agenda -- Social Security, Health Care Costs, Environment, Education • Use Budget, Tax Cuts and Enron for Class Warfare • Divide President and Congressional Republicans • Maximize Outside Resources Office of Strategic Initiatives

Republican Strategy • Focus on War and Economy • Promote Compassion Agenda -- Education, Welfare, Faith • Highlight Democrats’ Obstructionism on Judges, Agenda • Mobilize GOP Base, Reach Out to Hispanics, Unions, African-Americans • Strong Teamwork between White House, Political Committees and Members • Maximize Outside Resources and Create New Forums Office of Strategic Initiatives

2002 Bush Outreach MAINTAIN GROW Base Coal & Steel Farmers Ranchers Latinos Suburbs (esp. Women) Catholics Union Members Wired Workers EXPAND Believers IMPROVE African Americans Office of Strategic Initiatives

Change in Electoral Apportionment 2004 Bush 278 Gore 260 2000 Bush 271 Gore 267 AK-3 NH-4 WA-11 MT-3 VT-3 ND-3 MA-12 MN-10 OR-7 ID-4 WI -10 -1 SD-3 WY-3 IA-7 NE-5 NV-5 +1 UT-5 CO-9 +1 CA-55 +1 AZ-10 +2 NM-5 KS-6 OK-7 -1 Bush Carried 2000 Gore Carried 2000 NY-31 -2 MI-17 -1 PA-21 -2 RI-4 CT-7 -1 NJ-15 OH-20 DE-3 -1 WV-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 NC-15 DC-3 +1 TN-11 SC-8 IL-21 IN-11 -1 -1 MO-11 AR-6 MS-6 -1 TX-34 +2 HI-4 ME-4 AL-9 GA-15 +2 LA-9 FL-27 +2

Won by Less Than 5% AK-3 78 Electoral Votes NH-4 WA-11 MT-3 VT-3 ND-3 ME-4 MA-12 MN-10 OR-7 ID-4 WI -10 SD-3 WY-3 IA-7 NE-5 NV-5 CO-9 AZ-10 PA-21 OH-20 IL-21 IN-11 UT-5 CA-55 NY-31 KS-6 OK-7 NM-5 MO-11 TX-34 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 WV-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 NC-15 TN-11 SC-8 AR-6 MS-6 AL-9 HI-4 RI-4 MI-17 GA-15 LA-9 FL-27 DC-3

Lost By Less Than 1% AK-3 29 Electoral Votes -- 307 EVs NH-4 WA-11 MT-3 VT-3 ND-3 ME-4 MA-12 MN-10 OR-7 ID-4 WI -10 SD-3 WY-3 IA-7 NE-5 NV-5 CO-9 AZ-10 PA-21 OH-20 IL-21 IN-11 UT-5 CA-55 NY-31 KS-6 OK-7 NM-5 MO-11 TX-34 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 WV-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 NC-15 TN-11 SC-8 AR-6 MS-6 AL-9 HI-4 RI-4 MI-17 GA-15 LA-9 FL-27 DC-3

Lost By 1 -5% AK-3 63 Electoral Votes -- 370 EVs NH-4 WA-11 MT-3 VT-3 ND-3 ME-4 MA-12 MN-10 OR-7 ID-4 WI -10 SD-3 WY-3 IA-7 NE-5 NV-5 CO-9 AZ-10 PA-21 OH-20 IL-21 IN-11 UT-5 CA-55 NY-31 KS-6 OK-7 NM-5 MO-11 TX-34 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 WV-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 NC-15 TN-11 SC-8 AR-6 MS-6 AL-9 HI-4 RI-4 MI-17 GA-15 LA-9 FL-27 DC-3

Special Concerns AK-3 NH-4 WA-11 MT-3 VT-3 ND-3 ME-4 MA-12 MN-10 OR-7 ID-4 WI -10 SD-3 WY-3 IA-7 NE-5 NV-5 CO-9 AZ-10 PA-21 OH-20 IL-21 IN-11 UT-5 CA-55 NY-31 KS-6 OK-7 NM-5 MO-11 TX-34 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 WV-5 VA-13 MD-10 KY-8 NC-15 TN-11 SC-8 AR-6 MS-6 AL-9 HI-4 RI-4 MI-17 GA-15 LA-9 FL-27 DC-3

Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) drew cheers when he hailed Clinton as "the last elected president of the U. S. " and said, "It is our job to say we're not getting over Florida. "