Texas Plant Protection Conference Climate of Change International

Texas Plant Protection Conference ‘Climate of Change’ International Trade Relations Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies Texas A&M University

The Changing Climate of Trade l Agroterrorism l Animal Disease Outbreaks l New Agreements & Disputes

U. S. Agricultural Trade, 1970 -2005 F $70. 0 Billion Dollars $60. 0 $50. 0 $40. 0 $30. 0 $20. 0 $10. 0 Exports ! Imports ! ! & ! !! ! Trade !! & !Surplus ! !! ! ! !!! Shrinks & & & ! ! & & & ! ! & & !!! & & & ! & & !!& & & $0. 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Source: U. S. Trade Internet System, www. fas. usda. gov/ustrade 2000 2005 F

Securing U. S. Infrastructure Border/Trade Infrastructure – 5, 252 mile border with Canada – 1, 989 mile border with Mexico – 300 Land Ports of Entry-Exit – 95, 000 miles Coastline & Waterways – 300 U. S. Seaports – 429 Commercial Airports U. S. Customs/Immigration Agents in Canada & More Ag. Inspectors

Agroterror & Protective Response l Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge? ? Increased Truck/Rail/Noncommercial Traffic Focus on Drug Interdiction, Expediting Cargo & Illegal Immigration l 9/11/01 - “Crease In History” – U. S. Customs in Charge at Borders l Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Drugs, Expediting Cargo

New Agencies & Rules l Dept. of Homeland Security – APHIS Inspectors Included – FDA Not Included l Bioterrorism Preparedness – Administered by FDA Act 2002 Register l Notify l Keep Records l l US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ Not First

Mad Cows & Other Monsters!!

BSE (5/20/2003)

US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03 -Jan 04 BSE 12/23/03 *12/7/04

U. S. Meat Exports, 1970 -May 2004 3, 000 1, 000 Metric Tons Russian Broiler Meat 2, 500 )Beef Pork BSE Boost 2, 000 1, 500 BSE Decline 1, 000 500 )) )) ) ) )) 0 ) )) ) 1970 1975 Source: ERS/USDA 2004 1980 )) 1985 ) )) )) ))))) ) 1990 1995 2000 2004 (Jan-May)

U. S. Cattle and Hog Imports from Canada Million Head Hogs 10. 0 No Cattle Imports from Canada in 2004 Cattle 8. 0 7. 4 6. 0 4. 0 3. 2 2. 8 1. 7 0. 8 1. 2 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 4. 4 4. 1 2. 0 5. 7 5. 3 1. 5 1. 4 1. 3 1. 0 1. 3 1. 7 0. 5 0. 0 1993 1994 Source: USDA/FAS 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

US Cattle Imports from Mexico 2000 1, 000 Head 1, 653 1, 390 F 1500 Annual Avg. 800, 000 Head 1000 500 2004 is CNAS forecast 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 F

New Agreements l U. N. Biosafety Protocol – United States Not a Member l Trade Agreements: 8 Approved, 8 + Pending l WTO Negotiations-Doha Round l Trade Agreements w/Chile, Australia, Others

CUSTA, ‘ 89 NAFTA ‘ 94 Jordan ‘ 03 Bahrain ‘ 04 Israel ‘ 85 Morocco ‘ 04 CAFTA ‘ 04 Thailand ‘ 05 Panama ‘ 05 Andean FTA 05 MEFTA ‘ 06 Chile ‘ 04 FTAA ’ 06? Singapore ‘ 03 Southern African Customs Union ‘ 05 Australia ‘ 04 U. S. Trade Agreements-3 d Largest Market

World Average Agricultural Tariffs, 2000 Percent 140 Bound Average World Average 115 120 85 100 80 62% 55 60 40 30 40 25 12 20 te s U ni te d er A m N or t h n pe a ro Eu St a ic a U ni on ic a er A m h So ut ra l en t C C ar ib be an A m er ic Is la nd h So ut a s A sia 0

Frankenfoods! Jumping Genes!

Disputes l Mexico Transgenic Maize l EU & China GMO Rules l U. S. /Mexico Water Dispute l Anti-dumping Disputes, Mostly NAFTA (lumber & hogs) l Canadian Cattle Lawsuit l WTO Cotton Case Ruling Due March ‘ 05

Tributaries & Reservoirs Rio Grande Rio Bravo del Norte • Ft. Quitman Pecos River Presidio Rio Conchos Chihuahua Delicias Boquilla 37% Capacity 65% of Inflows • Amistad Reservoir 84% Capacity LRGV • Falcon Reservoir 112/7/04 IBWC Nuevo Leon Tamaulipas

Implications l Complex, Convoluted Issues l Degree of Trade Dependence Determines Potential Severity Disruptions to Trade l Managing U. S. Borders Huge Job l As Trade Agreements Implemented, Expect More Disputes l WTO Cotton Case, Major Farm Program Implications l U. S. /Mexico Water Dispute Abated, Not Solved

Thanks! “Informed Decisions for Global Change” Center for North American Studies Parr Rosson Prosson@tamu. edu 979 -845 -3070