Terrorist Scenario South East Asia 999999 -1

Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia 999999 -1 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Terrorism • 999999 -2 XYZ 2/12/2018 Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

JI comments… • • • "We decided to settle accounts with Australia, one of the worst enemies of God and Islam. . . "We advise all Australians in Indonesia to leave, or we will make it a grave for them, God willing Australian government has ignored previous warnings and taken part "in the war against our brothers in Iraq and supported the invading forces. " Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda 999999 -3 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia • • Regional Summary Current Threat Conditions U. S. National Security Objectives – CINC Operational Objectives Blue Force Structure – ASEAN Member Force Structure – Coalition Force Structure – Force Employment 999999 -4 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Regional Summary Indonesia – A country of unrest; A country vital to the world economy • Formerly Dutch East-Indies • 200 nm Exclusive Maritime Economic Zone • Of 17, 000 islands, 6, 000 are inhabited • 12 nm Maritime Territorial Zone • East-west expanse: 3, 200 miles; • 240 million people –MIT Lincoln Laboratory 19 languages equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran • Muslim – 88%; Christian – 8%; Other – 3% 999999 -5 XYZ 2/12/2018

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest • United S. E. Asia/Island ethnic groups through diplomacy backed by force at the end of WWII • Assumed “Presidency” maintaining control through military • Lost conflict to gain Malaysia as part of Indonesia • Internal unrest and a failed military coup in 1966 ultimately removed him from power the following year Sukarno 1945 -1967 999999 -6 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Sukarno 1945 -1967 Suharto • Senior military officer under Sukarno • Used military to control dissident groups seeking more autonomy/independence from the central government • Won seven “unopposed” elections until economic catastrophe and internal dissatisfaction with military controls forced him to step down 1967 -1998 999999 -7 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Sukarno 1945 -1967 Suharto 1967 -1998 Habibie • Suharto’s Vice-President and hand-picked successor • Stepped in to run the Government until the 1999 elections could be held • The country’s first truly democratic elections 1998 -1999 999999 -8 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest • Unable to revive the economy, separatist activity increased • Military abuses cause intense protest & migration of refugees • Muslim radical groups strengthen their foothold • Parliament removes him from office Sukarno 1945 -1967 Suharto 1967 -1998 Habibie 1998 -1999 Wahid 1999 -2001 999999 -9 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest Sukarno 1945 -1967 Suharto Sukarnoputri 1967 -1998 2001 -2004 Habibie 1998 -1999 Wahid 1999 -2001 999999 -10 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Current President • Indonesia’s first-ever directly elected President • Pledged to outlaw al Qaeda linked JI 999999 -11 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest 999999 -12 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest 999999 -13 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest 999999 -14 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest 999999 -15 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest 999999 -16 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Malacca Strait South China Sea Pacific Ocean Malacca Strait • 600 nm long, 17 to 54 m deep • Primary conduit for Indo. Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic • Indian Ocean 999999 -17 XYZ 2/12/2018 – Virtually all E. Asia oil shipped through the Malacca Straits (36% of all ship traffic) – Over $1. 1 trillion (U. S. ) in goods transit annually – 50, 000 ships transit each year; 137/day 60% of Malaysia/Indonesia fish catch comes from Malacca Straits MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Malacca Strait South China Sea Sunda Strait Indian Ocean 999999 -18 XYZ 2/12/2018 Pacific Ocean Sunda Strait • Secondary conduit for Indo- Europe to E. Asia maritime traffic – Adds 2 sailing days to route – Can not absorb overflow should Malacca Strait close MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy Malacca Strait South China Sea Pacific Ocean Makassar Strait Lombok/Makassar Straits • Primary conduit for Indo- Sunda Strait Lombok Strait Indian Ocean 999999 -19 XYZ 2/12/2018 • Europe to Pacific maritime traffic – Adds 5 sailing days to route should Malacca Strait close Lombok Strait handles all shipping traffic between Australia and East Asia MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection • Guerrillas of Free Aceh Movement - GAM – Muslim separatist, 4, 000 strong demand independence of Aceh Province – Hosted bin Laden’s #2, Ayman Al-Zawahiri & al Qaeda’s former military chief, Mohammed Atef in June 2000 • Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) – Demand creation of an Islamic state consisting of portions of Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, & Indonesia – Responsible for Christmas 2000 & Bali bombings – Lieutenants trained in Camp Chaldun, Afghanistan; created sleeper cells across Indonesia 999999 -20 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Threat Summary • Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and JI have formed a cooperative alliance – The alliance has been independently confirmed by CIA operatives in-country ØGAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for their 28 -year independence struggle & force the Government to the bargaining table or replace the current administration with one that will negotiate ØJI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy prior to the 2004 general election so that the administration will topple or be unelectable 999999 -21 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Threat Summary • GAM and JI strategies may be designed to take advantage of the recent merging of Islamic political parties in Indonesia – The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have consolidated party platforms for the 2004 election Ø Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the local and provincial levels where Government officials and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling, prostitution, and drug businesses Ø Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce Sharia-based laws – Combined, the two parties command unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which will overcome the four remaining parties 999999 -22 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

GAM/JI Course of Action • Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry – Targets: Ø Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the country and random kidnapping of foreigners Ø Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait Ø Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh • Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits – Methods: Ø Piracy Ø Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery Ø Mine-laying Ø Scuttling in the channel • 999999 -23 XYZ 2/12/2018 Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all primary straits in S. E. Asia MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone Malacca Strait Closure • Would effect over 50% of the worlds shipping vessels • Would require all of the world’s excess shipping tonnage to make up the lost tonnage due to 999999 -24 increased number of sailing days through alternate XYZ 2/12/2018 routes Narrowest Point: MIT Lincoln Laboratory Singapore Strait – 1. 5 nm

Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone 999999 -25 XYZ 2/12/2018 Narrowest Point: MIT Lincoln Laboratory Singapore Strait – 1. 5 nm

Malacca Strait Shoreline strike zone 999999 -26 XYZ 2/12/2018 Narrowest Point: MIT Lincoln Laboratory Singapore Strait – 1. 5 nm

Malacca Strait Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Shoreline strike zone 999999 -27 XYZ 2/12/2018 Narrowest Point: MIT Lincoln Laboratory Singapore Strait – 1. 5 nm

Alternate Routes Sunda Strait Shoreline strike zone 999999 -28 XYZ 2/12/2018 Lombok Strait MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Sunda Strait Sumatra Java Sunda Strait 999999 -29 XYZ 2/12/2018 Lombok Strait MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Lombok Strait Bali Sunda Strait 999999 -30 XYZ 2/12/2018 Lombok Strait MIT Lincoln Laboratory

U. S. National Objectives • • • 999999 -31 XYZ 2/12/2018 Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to identify and remove terrorist threats within their borders Prevent South East Asia terrorist organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea lanes and creating a world economic crisis Protect commercial ships transiting Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist attack thereby minimizing costly insurance increases MIT Lincoln Laboratory

U. S. National Strategy • • Support the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea lanes open – ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline access to straits – ASEAN coalition partners (including the U. S. ) form picket lines at entrances to the straits Through bi-lateral agreements support Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military and domestic police forces in coordinated counter-terrorism operations against GAM & JI – Economic aid, law enforcement assistance, and cooperative military counter-terrorist operations 999999 -32 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection • • Association of South East Asia Nations providing forces to maintain sea lanes – – – Coalition partners providing forces to maintain sea lanes – – – 999999 -33 XYZ 2/12/2018 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Australia Britain China Japan United States MIT Lincoln Laboratory

ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection USCINCPAC CINC JTF-Seal Supporting CINCs USTRANSCOM USSTATCOM Operational & Tactical Control SOCOM Combatants 999999 -34 XYZ 2/12/2018 PACAF Combatants Coalition Commands Tactical Control PACFLT Combatants Operational Control Coalition Combatants MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Sea Lane Protection AOR ASEAN Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines ASEAN Coalition China & Japan Australia Great Britain United States 999999 -35 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Sea Lane Protection – U. S. Forces Malacca Strait AOR Platform PACFLT Assets SOCOM Assets PACAF Assets Frigate (FFG-7) Destroyer (DD) MCS-12 - CH-53 E helos - SAR helos - EOD team MCM SSN (Fast Attack) P-3 Qty 2 3 1 8 2 1 3 Location Makassar Strait AOR Platform Mouth of Malacca Strait Frigate (FFG-7) Mouth of Malacca Strait Destroyer (DD) Malacca Strait MCS-12 (retired) - CH-53 E helos - SAR helos - EOD team Malacca Strait MCM Malacca Strait SSN (Fast Attack) Singapore P-3 Spec. Forces Team 1 Qty Location 2 2 1 8 2 1 3 Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Company to board ships MC 2 A* KC-10* Spec. Forces Team 1 2 2 MC 2 A* KC-135* Singapore North of Makassar Strait Makassar Strait Mactan AB, Philippines Assigned to Indonesia Marine Spec. Forces Compan to board ships 2 2 Mactan AB, Philippines *MC 2 A and Tankers also support U. S. Counter-Terrorist operations 999999 -36 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces Platform Aussie Assets British Assets Chinese Assets Japanese Assets 999999 -37 XYZ 2/12/2018 Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Bandicoot class Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class Frigate (FFG) - ANZAC class Frigate (FFG) - Adelaide class Off-shore Patrol Boat (PBG) – Fremantle class Off-shore PG (PBG) Mine Countermeasure (MCM) – Huon class Maritime Patrol Aircraft (AP-3 C) Refueling Aircraft (KC-135) Frigate (FFG) – Type 23 Duke Class Frigate (FFG) – Type 22 Broadsword Class Destroyer (DDG) – Type 42 Mine Countermeasures (MCMV) – Sandown Class Frigate (FFG) Type 53 HT-H – Jianghu IV Class Destroyer (DDG) Type 51 – Luda II Class Patrol Boat (PBG) Type 21 – Huangfeng Class Frigate (FFG) – Mursame Class Destroyer (DDK) – Takanami Class Maritime Patrol (P-3 C) Qty 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 6 4 2 8 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 5 2 2 5 Location South of Lombok Strait North of Lombok Strait Nouth of Lombok Strait Flores Sea Flores Sea Darwin, Australia South of Sunda Strait North of Sunda Strait Sundra Strait South China Sea South China Sea Kuching, Malaysia MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces Platform Indonesia Assets Malaysia Assets 999999 -38 XYZ 2/12/2018 Qty Location Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class Patrol Boat (PB) – Kujang Class High Speed Patrol Craft – Kodjo Class Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor-II Class Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N 22 B Searchmaster SAR Frigate (FFG) – Samadikun Class Corvette – Kapitan Patimura Class Patrol Boat (PB) – DKN 504 Class Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Kondor II Class Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N 22 SL Searchmaster SAR Frigate (FFG) – Ahmed Yani Class Corvette – Fatahilah Class Fast Attack Boat – Sibaru Class Patrol Boat (PB) – Kal Kangean Class Maritime Patrol Aircraft – N 22 Searchmaster SAR 2 4 8 5 12 3 5 3 6 10 3 6 2 3 6 8 8 South Entrance to Malacca Strait Malacca Strait & South Entrance Malacca Strait Karimate Strait, Java Sea Karimate Strait, Java Sea South Entrance to Makassar Strait & South Entrance Makassar Strait Frigate (FFG) – Lekiu Class Corvette – Kasturi Class Patrol Boat (PB) – Sri Selangor Class Mine Countermeasures (MCM) – Mahamiru Class Maritime Patrol Aircraft – B 200 T Super King Air SAR 2 2 16 2 4 Malacca Stait Malacca Strait MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Counter-Terrorism Operations USSOCOM Operational Coordination Supporting CINCs USTRANSCOM USSTATCOM Indonesian Commands Malaysian Commands Thai Commands Operational & Tactical Control PACAF Combatants 999999 -39 XYZ 2/12/2018 SOCOM Combatants Tactical Coordination Indonesian Combatants Malaysian Combatants Thai Combatants MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Counter-Terrorism Task Force AOR JI: Thailand JI: Malaysia JI: Central Sulawesi, Indonesia GAM: Aceh, Indonesia 999999 -40 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

U. S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism Aceh/Malacca Strait AOR SOCOM Assets SOCOM Unit Special Forces Team Qty 2 Special Forces Team 1 ISR Coordination Team 1 Special Forces Team Air Assets 2 Assigned with: Kopassus, Combat Group I, - Aceh Kopassus, Combat Group V (Counter. Terrorism) - Aceh Kopassus, Combat Group IV (Intel) Jakarta 21 st GKN Sungei Udang, Malaysia 1 st Inf. Div. Special Forces Team 1 Changwat Trang, Thailand MC 2 A* 2 Singapore E-2 C 2 Singapore KC-10* 2 Singapore Rivet Joint 1 Singapore F-15 E 12 Penang, Malaysia RQ-1 B, Predator-B 1(4) Penang, Malaysia RQ-7, Shadow 600 4(3) Banda. Aceh, Indonesia Sulawesi/Makassar Strait AOR SOCOM Unit Qty Special Forces Team 2 MC 2 A* E-2 C KC-135* Rivet Joint F/A-18 F-16 RQ-1 B, Predator B RQ-7, Shadow 600 Assigned with: Kopassus, Combat Group II, Sulawesi 1 Mactan AB, Philippines 2 Mactan AB, Philippines 1 Singapore 8 Mactan AB, Philippines 1(4) Ujungpandang, Sulawesi 2(3) Poso, Sulawesi, Indonesia * Same assets are supporting USCINCPAC Sea Lane Protection effort 999999 -41 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

MC 2 A Employment E-2 C JTIDS Predator MC 2 A F-15 E Shadow 600 999999 -42 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

NM 500 Predator A 1 st Inf /Special Ops 400 C M 2 A Predator Orbits Firescout Orbits Shadow UAV Orbits KC-135 R F- RC-135 W SOCOM Teams Bases 22 B 2/CAOC 21 GKN ) (4 300 Predator #2 / Predator B N Kopassus Combat Group V E 2 -C Kopassus Combat Group I B 3 S USN Firescout Orbit Areas 200 HSV-2 B 1 100 Terrorist Bombing 999999 -43 XYZ 2/12/2018 100 MIT Lincoln Laboratory 200 300 400 500 600

SOCOM Assets Thailand 1 st Inf. Div. /Special Ops (4 Malaysia ) MC 2 A Predator-B 22 RJ F- M C 2 A KC-10 Shadow UAV SOCOM Teams Kopassus Combat 21 GKN Group V E-2 C Kopassus Combat Group 1 21 GKN F-15 E (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Singapore Indonesia 999999 -44 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

1700 1600 Predator A E- 2 C 1800 KC-135 F/A-18 (4) Predator A MC 2 A Kopassus Combat Group II Kalimantan, Indonesia 0 Kopassus Combat Group II Global Hawk (SIGINT) F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI Sulawesi, Indonesia 21 GKN -100 Population Density Bases - GS MC 2 A Predator-A/B 999999 -45 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln. Shadow UAV Laboratory SOCOM Teams

E-2 C SOCOM Assets KC-135 F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI F/A-18 (4) Kopassus Combat Group II MC 2 A Kalimantan, Indonesia Kopassus Global Hawk Combat Group II Sulawesi, Indonesia 21 GKN Population Density MC 2 A Predator-B 999999 -46 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln. Shadow UAV Laboratory SOCOM Teams

E-2 C KC-135 SOCOM Assets F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI F/A-18 (4) Kopassus Combat Group II MC 2 A Kalimantan, Indonesia Ujungpandang (UAV Base) Kopassus Global Hawk Combat (SIGINT) Group II Sulawesi, Indonesia 21 GKN Population Density MC 2 A Predator-A/B 999999 -47 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln. Shadow UAV Laboratory SOCOM Teams

SOCOM Assets Thailand 1 st Inf. Div. /Special Ops wk a -H M C 2 A G KC-10 22 (4 MC 2 A Predator-A/B F- RJ ) Malaysia Shadow UAV SOCOM Teams Kopassus Combat 21 GKN Group V E-2 C Kopassus Combat Group 1 21 GKN F-22 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Signapore Indonesia 999999 -48 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

500 400 B 2 – Penang 300 B 3 – Polonia 200 100 B 1 – Paya Lebar 0 999999 -49 XYZ 2/12/2018 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

500 Predator A 400 C M 2 A KC-135 R 22 F- RC-135 W B 2 ) (4 300 E 2 -C Predator A B 3 200 B 1 100 999999 -50 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln Laboratory 100 200 300 400 500

E-2 C KC-135 SOCOM Assets F/A-18 (4) 30 min Gnd Alert Mactan AB, PI F/A-18 (4) Kopassus Combat Group II MC 2 A Kalimantan, Indonesia Ujungpandang (UAV Base) Kopassus Global Hawk Combat (SIGINT) Group II Sulawesi, Indonesia 21 GKN Population Density MC 2 A Predator-A/B 999999 -51 XYZ 2/12/2018 MIT Lincoln. Shadow UAV Laboratory SOCOM Teams

Western Theater 500 400 300 Base 1 200 100 0 999999 -52 XYZ 2/12/2018 100 200 300 400 500 600 MIT Lincoln Laboratory