Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Regional Perspective May 24

Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective May 24, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia Political & Security Dimension 1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration 3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia 4) May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian Summit 5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 6) May 24 Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective

Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001 -Present) n Strategic Circumstances n US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia n Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated n Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation n Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 　 　 Members Functions Forceful Competitive Inclusive / Regional （Geographical Cooperation） (Collective Security) (Deterrence/Response) Unforceful Cooperative （CBM / PD） Exclusive / Functional （Regional Security Complex） Japan-US Alliance 　　　　 Korea-US Alliance Shanghai Cooperation Organization Proliferation Security Initiative Anti-Terrorism Cooperation ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Shangri-la Dialogue Non-Traditional Security

Terrorism as a National Security Threat n September 11, 2001 n n n World Trade Center Bldg. （NYC） Department of Defense (Washington DC) More than 3000 had died n Definition of “War” n n “More than 1000 dead in a conbat” Rhetric of “War against Terror”

The New Age of Terrorism n New Trends of Terrorism n n n Terrorism has become bloodier. Terrorist have developed new financial resources, so that they are less dependent on state sponsors. Terrorists have evolved new model of organization. Terrorists can now wage global campaigns. Terrorists have effectively exploited new communications technologies. Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to strategy, although none of them have achieved their stated long range goals. ― Brian Jenkins, “The New Age of Terrorism” (RAND, 2006)

Terrorism has become bloodier Death　　　 Event　　　 3000+ NYC/Washington DC 477 Iran Avadan Arson 412 Massacre in Algeria 270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing 241 Beirut US Marine Corp 223 Kenya / Tanzania 168 Oklahoma Bldg 115 Korean Air Bombing Casualty 5500 4000 Aum Salin Gas Attack Kenya / Tanzania 　　　　 (2001) (1979) (1997) (1988) (1983) (1998) (1995) (1987) (1995) (1998) Suspect Al-Qaeda Anti-Govt Group GIA Libya Islamic Front Al-Qaeda Mcbay&Nichols North Korea Aum-Shinrikyo Al-Qaeda

Spatial Analysis of 9 -11 Attack Russia (weapons) Europe (recruiting) Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing) Saudi Arabia（ financing） Pakistan (terrorist cells) Sudan（ terrorist cells/training） Indonesia/Philippines（ terrorist cells/training） US（terrorist US（ cells/training）

Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda) Supporter Sub. HQ Sleeper Cell Main HQ Sub. HQ (Mutant) = Terrorist Cell Sub. HQ Hub Cell

Patterns of Terrorism US Perspective Domestic Terrorism World Trade Center Bombing (1993) 9. 11 terrorism／Anthrax (2001) terrorism／ Conventional Weapons Non-Traditional Weapons Kenya/Tanzania US Embassy Bombing (1998) Aum Shinrikyo Salin Gas Attack (1996) 　 Overseas Terrorism

Typology of International Terrorism n Territory-oriented Terrorism n Europe / Middle East n n Asia n n Palestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask / Kosovo Sri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF Ideal-oriented Terrorism n Political Terrorism n n Religious Terrorism n n n Islamic Fundamentalist / Christian Fundamentalist Religious Cults Social Issue-oriented Terrorism n n Far Left / Far Right / Anarchist Anti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental Preservation Personal Delusion Terrorism n Unabomber

Categorization of Counter-Terrorism Indigenous Measures Cooperation with Allies and Friends Regional Cooperation Ｉ　 Prevention Information Analysis Investigation Border Control Intelligence Sharing ＩＩ　 Consequence Management Anti-terrorism Exercise urbansuburban coordination Cooperation in case of emergency Joint Seminar Investigation ＩＩＩ　 Anti-Terrorism Trial Subduement and Policing Cooperation on Investigation, Justice, Military IV. 　 New Measures New Pact Global Cooperation Terrorist Organization Surrounding Environment Lessons Learned Recommendation Evaluation Assesment Intelligence Information Sharing Joint Action Information Sharing Fact Finding New Concept New Treaty Norm Creation Capacity Building Source: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)

US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1) “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (-2003) n Patterns of Global Terrorism n n Officially recognizing more than 30 terrorist organizations Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorism n n make no concessions to terrorists and strike no deals bring terrorists to justice to their crimes isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behavior Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those countries that work with the US and require assistance ―US State Department ”Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)

US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) “US Strategy for Combating Terrorism” (2003)

Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1) cf “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003) n n n n Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-Mindanao Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-Mindanao Kumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-Malaysia Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) Yousif Longpi-Indonesia Jemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin: n Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias Moussaoui, Khalid al. Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000 Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala Lumpur Abu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines Tamil Tigers - Phuket, Thailand Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) n These organizations are all related through their shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism revolving around the preservation of Islamic culture in response to real and perceived aggression.

Terrorist Organizations in Asia (2) n n n n Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South Asia Japanese Red Army - Japan East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western Xinjiang province/China Cambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia & U. S. Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Philippines Communist Party of Philippines / New People’s Army AUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan & Russia Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East and Europe

Southeast Asia as Terrorist Bed n Areas with Major Islamic Population n n n Middle East Indonesia South Asia Africa Turkey 19. 5% 17% 25% 20% 10% (238, 000) (200, 000) (300, 000) (240, 000) (125, 000) Characteristic of Southeast Asia’s Extremists n n n Muslim Youth Movement Diffused Centralized Command & Control External Support and Recruitment Early Stages of Organizational Development Gaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg Bali Bombing)

Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating Terrorism n APEC n n n ARF n n n APEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of Terrorism (2002) APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003) Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003) Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative (2004) Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing (2002) Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action on border security (2003) Statement Strengthening Transport Security Against International Terrorism (2004) Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange and Document Integrity and Security in Enhancing Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other Transnational Crimes(2005) ASEAN+3 n Joint Statement (2001 -2005)

Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperation on Combating Terrorism n Regional Groupings n Bali Process n n n Southeast Asia Center for Counter-Terrorism n n Malaysia Bilateral Cooperation n n Bali Regional Ministerial Meeting on Counter-Terrorism (2004) Legal Issue Working Group Japan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU) Among ASEAN Member States Australia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand) Ad-hoc (functional) Cooperation n n Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI): Japan, Australia, Singapore Container Security Initiative (CSI) : Japan, China, Singapore, Malaysia Taiwan

Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism Economic Sphere Global Framework 　 GATT / IMF Mega-Regionalism Coalition Bilateralism APEC EU / ASEAN +3 Multilateral FTAs Bilateral FTAs Security Sphere UN / Multinational ARF / OSCE EU / ASEAN Anti-Terrorism Bilateral Alliance