Terrorism A Threat Assessment John Parachini June 26

Terrorism: A Threat Assessment John Parachini June 26, 2003 Unclassified R 1

Three Enduring Aspects of Combating Terrorism • Terrorism is a perennial, ceaseless struggle • Enmity towards the U. S. is unlikely to diminish • U. S. will remain vulnerable It is important to prioritize protection activities according to both threat and vulnerabilities. Unclassified R 2

New Trends Inexorable Diffusion of Technology Mass Casualty Terrorism Unclassified Religiously Motivated Violence R 3

Anti-US Mass Casualty Incidents Source: Report of the Accountability Review Boards, Bombings of the U. S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, August 7, 1998 Unclassified R 4

Inexorable Spread of Technology Unclassified R 5

Tactically, Terrorists Mostly Use Explosives to Conduct Their Attacks Weapons used in Terrorist Attacks: 1 April 2001 – 1 April 2002 Unclassified R 6

Analysis of Terrorism Threat • Capabilities • Motivations • Vulnerabilities • Context Unclassified R 7

Two Factors Affect Terrorists’ Choice of Targets • Accessibility –Seizing opportunities to attack –Exploiting vulnerabilities for desired ends • Shock-value –Destruction of symbolic buildings, institutions, or sites –Attacks that cause large amounts of casualties Unclassified R 8

Terrorist System Possible to Influence State Enablers • Family Members • Financiers • • State Sponsors • Weapons • Talent • Foot Smugglers Spotters Soldiers • Leaders Importance to the Terrorist Enterprise Unclassified R 9

Key Types of State Support Sanctuary A=Active P=Passive Political Support Train. Finance Arms Intel Logistics A A A A State/Insurgency Group A State/Terrorist Cut-out A State/Terrorist Political Goals P A A A P Weak State/Strong Terrorist Group A P P P A Joint Ops. P Unclassified R 10

n (p ista A A P A A A Political Support A A P A P A A P Training P A A ? ? A Financing P A A A ? A P P A Documentation ? ? A ? ? ? A Weapons A A A ? P A ? A Intelligence ? A ? ? Logistics P A ? Joint Operations ? Unclassified A P P ? * Lib Ira q Ira n Gr A A Sau A Pak A No rt A ya* P * A eec e * A Cu ba Sanctuary Afg han h. K ista ore a* n (T alib an) A = Active P = Passive * = Designated State Sponsor rio r to di A 911 rab ) ia Sud an* Syr ia* Ve nez uel a Examples of State Support for Terrorism A A A P P ? ? A A P A R 11

Middle East States Seeking WMD and the Terrorist Groups They Support Al Aqsa Martyr Brigade PKK Hamas ANO Al Qaeda ALF al-Gama’a al –Islamiyya PFLP Islamic Jihad MEK Hezbollah PIJ PFLP-GC PLF Iran Syria Iraq Sudan Libya Nuclear Biological Chemical Biological Nuclear Biological Chemical Biological Unclassified R 12

17 Groups That Target Within Their Area of Operations Are Also Anti-U. S. Focus on U. S. Anti-US Sentiment Al-Qaeda IG DHKP/C N 17 RO PIJ ELN FARC Le. T GSPC HAMAS Hizballah SL ASG IMU Maoists GIA MILF AUC Unclassified RIRA ETA Coordinate multiple attacks Strike guarded target Kill 150+ Attack unguarded foreign nationals LTTE Kill 50 People Conduct an Attack Anti-U. S. Rhetoric Kach R 13

Terrorist Groups and Unconventional Weapons CR C CRBN High Al Qaeda Danger Hizbollah Low RIRA ETA MILF AUC IMU N 17 RO SL ASG Kach Low PIJ GSPC GIA LTTE FARC (? ) HAMAS (? ) DHKP/C (? ) PKK (? ) BKI AUM Chechen Rebels Sophistication of Unconventional Weapons Unclassified High R 14

Al-Qaeda Motivations • Launch an Islamic revolution • Perception that U. S. props up corrupt Arab regimes that oppress Muslims peoples • Attack U. S. to avenge sense of religious, economic, and political grievance • Inflicting large number of U. S. casualties will cause it to leave the Middle East and lessen support for Israel • Struggle against the U. S. , Israel, and the West affirms personal identity of al-Qaeda terrorists Unclassified R 15

Al-Qaeda CBRN Threat We have the weapons [nuclear and chemical] as deterrent. ” Unclassified R 16

Documents from Al-Qaeda Sites in Afghanistan • Reveal extensive interest in WMD • Basic information from open sources • Little evidence of progress towards significant acquisition or weaponization Unclassified R 17

Ahmed Ressam and the CNN Tapes • Describes training on how to release cyanide gas into buildings Unclassified R 18

Planting Dangerous Ideas “. . . we only became aware of them [biological weapons] when the enemy drew our attention to them by repeatedly expressing concern that they can be produced simply. ” Memo on computer disk allegedly written by Al Zawari April 1999. Unclassified R 19

Image Found in Al Qaeda Safe House • Al-Qaeda took note of U. S. official fears • Tension between prudent preparedness and communicating our vulnerabilities Source: ABCnews. com Unclassified R 20

Another View of New Trends Tactical Fanatic Violence Mass Casualty Violence CBRN Weapons Capabilities Unclassified Interest in CBRN R 21

Dangers in the Future • Al Qaeda sleeper cells? • New grouping of terrorists trained in Al Qaeda camps? • Others struggling against modernity? • Strong terrorists operating in weak and beholden states? Unclassified R 22