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Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April 1998 Gordon Bell ([email protected] com) Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research DVC ‘ 98 s http: //www. research. microsoft. com/barc/gbell

Outline n n n n Nature of the Teleworkplace Platforms and technology push… why Outline n n n n Nature of the Teleworkplace Platforms and technology push… why now? The teleworking dimensions Telepresentations: a killer app But does anyone want telework? Cyberspace… our quest The end…. . The 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure DVC ‘ 98 s

Telework = work + telepresence … “being there while being here” n n n Telework = work + telepresence … “being there while being here” n n n Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office The teleworkplace is ideally just a “remote office” W/O – Communication, computer, and network support! – Team interactions for work! CSCW is a “rat hole”! – Interaction at coffee, meeting rooms, … in offices – Administrative support for phones, information (especially paper) management, keeping track of Always on & always connected to intranet/intranet. . . ! Telepresentations & communication -- the “killer apps” Collaboration is desirable, hard, and may be possible. Needs B/W & low latency. It’s on its very slow way. SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market ‘ 98 s DVC

Telecommuting versus time DVC ‘ 98 s Telecommuting versus time DVC ‘ 98 s

Teleworking CW 9/1/97 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of Teleworking CW 9/1/97 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies (screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc. n Are telecommuters more productive? – 30% yes – 50% same – 4% no – 16% don’t know n Are telecommuters more accessible? – 13% yes – 40% same – 40% no – 7% don’t know DVC ‘ 98 s n n

Telepresence for work: requirements n n n n n Telepresence = space and time Telepresence for work: requirements n n n n n Telepresence = space and time shifting Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office Limited space, bandwidth, administrative and computer support infrastructure, AND interaction Need: run all office and professional apps, support computing environment, and be always connected New app opportunities: telepresentations (e. g. Net. Show, Powerpoint conferencing); Web is the greatest library ever created Create “presence” for collaboration by apps sharing (e. g. Net. Meeting, Placeware) Administrative support including paper handling! Short term bets: large disks (e. g 20 GB), DVCdisplays, more ‘ 98 s videophones, cameras, scanners, bandwidth limits

Telework & telepresence: a forcing function into several areas. . . n n n Telework & telepresence: a forcing function into several areas. . . n n n Home Network connection is always on … and at high speed Support (at reasonable cost) for all apps… -- the teleworker = system admin Office work… e. g. paperlessness, message mgm’t “recording all we read, write, hear, and see” -- the teleworker = admin. assistant aka secretary Telepresence… attending meetings and lectures, taking courses, etc. without travel Collaboration on a work project without travel DVC ‘ 98 s

Why telepresence now? DVC ‘ 98 s Why telepresence now? DVC ‘ 98 s

It’s the near-term platforms, stupid! (multimedia is finally happening) n n n n Text It’s the near-term platforms, stupid! (multimedia is finally happening) n n n n Text & 2 D graphics >> images, voice, & video The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything Disk sizes and cost c 1998 – $50 -100 / GB – 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20 -40 GB MO R/W The videophone will emerge for distributed conferences Document, picture, and video capture and compression – 10, 000 to 250, 000 pages / GB; 10, 000 pictures / GB – 40 -400 books / GB or $0. 25 -2. 50 / book – Plethora of … CAMERAS EVERYWHERE! – More Screens. We need at least two! Voice and video compression* – 250 hours / GB voice DVC ‘ 98 s – Stamp size-VHS: 12 -50 hours / GB; Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places

Memex DVC ‘ 98 s Memex DVC ‘ 98 s

Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types read text, few pictures /hr Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types read text, few pictures /hr 200 K /day (/4 yr) 2 -10 M/G /lifetime 60 -300 G speech text @120 wpm speech @1 KBps 43 K 3. 6 M 0. 5 M/G 40 M/G 15 G 1. 2 T stills w/voice @100 KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G video-like 50 Kb/s POTS video 200 Kb/s VHS-lite 22 M 90 M . 25 G/T 1 G/T 25 T 100 T video 4. 3 Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1. 8 G 20 G/T 1 P DVC ‘ 98 s

Storage and data-rate requirements for common office data-types Documents page or fax business card Storage and data-rate requirements for common office data-types Documents page or fax business card snapshot 350 page book image 100 K 5 K 3 M 25 M Human data-types read text, few pictures speech text @120 wpm speech @1 KBps Video comp. 50 Kb. POTS video comp. 200 Kb VHS video comp. 4. 3 Mb DVD P compressed 4 K 500 100 K 1 -2 M /hr 200 K 43 K 3. 6 M 22 M 90 M 1. 8 G #/GB 10 K; 250 K 200 K; 2 M 10, 000 40; 750 /day /lifetime 2 -10 M 60 -300 G 0. 5 M 15 G 40 M 1. 2 T. 25 G 25 T 1 G 100 T 20 G 1 DVC ‘ 98 s

SOHO AKA COMOHO Teleworking Environment Guardian Angel: intercom, records what we read, see, and SOHO AKA COMOHO Teleworking Environment Guardian Angel: intercom, records what we read, see, and hear… protects us from ourselves and others DVC ‘ 98 s

Libretto, . 5 mm Not shown: ECG; PCS; Pilot GPS; Compass; altimeter Libretto PS, Libretto, . 5 mm Not shown: ECG; PCS; Pilot GPS; Compass; altimeter Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife DVC ‘ 98 s

One of GB’s Teleworkplaces DVC ‘ 98 s One of GB’s Teleworkplaces DVC ‘ 98 s

Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3# DVC ‘ 98 s Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3# DVC ‘ 98 s

Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing DVC ‘ 98 s Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing DVC ‘ 98 s

DVC ‘ 98 s DVC ‘ 98 s

SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment POTS (legacy services) IP Dial tone SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment POTS (legacy services) IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1. 5 Mbps NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute LAN PC Phone . . . NC* Phone *NC, Net. PC, Xterm, s DVC ‘ 98 etc.

Telework & communications space DVC ‘ 98 s Telework & communications space DVC ‘ 98 s

Mechanisms (how) Synchronous The Space of Telepresence for work ICQ, Internet phone & phone Mechanisms (how) Synchronous The Space of Telepresence for work ICQ, Internet phone & phone conf. Real. Audio & simple graphics Workspace for remote program control Whiteboard (groups). . . Videophone Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) email Prof Asynchronous Formal presentations sans video pe es. . . rs sion ith 1: o w ) Voice & Videomail co 1 p n-c s n r ing m er o om ay 2 m s Video lectures & coursesctio ls f hor w l pu un on co sit al era cal ut n n ete h t a si fe si icatal r l) in ne g, te re te l , io 1: n ro al” ho lvin co nc p es r. ) t r ( m br co nf ing op so tu ldetc. r w oa m m e c G ie nfo ide m an p dc ren; le kho , e v i ( di ag ute “ 1 v ble ws ci as s oc lls In rou ype f g w st ng a ts te p T o 1: pro vie ith rib em r in , st h t (W r r ( n >2 ute ent ac te ses ee es ow rk ) ho t m c t , 1 d in o t io as al ren s, 0, g ) cl rm fe ng n W ha <1 rou 00 p fo on eti W ( c e , s DVC ‘ 98 s

Telepresence: who and what WHO 1: 1 person-person communication What view (troll) hallways, “seeking Telepresence: who and what WHO 1: 1 person-person communication What view (troll) hallways, “seeking interaction” 1: 1 interview, status report, etc. 1 -6 videophone calls for 1: n-site broadcasting or (design, problem solving, Mbone narrowcasting authoring) distributed group. >2 - 5 - hold staff meetings with 1 or more members 10 - 100 distributed ---attend classes person-computer formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder computer management (no meetings, town halls, persons) etc. . ) DVC ‘ 98 s n: m 2 -site video conference

Telemeeting clone DVC ‘ 98 s Telemeeting clone DVC ‘ 98 s

Telework clones… being in more than one place at the same time DVC ‘ Telework clones… being in more than one place at the same time DVC ‘ 98 s

Animatron. . . DVC ‘ 98 s Animatron. . . DVC ‘ 98 s

Telepresence Mechanisms (for Work) Synchronous Internet phone & phone conferencing Real. Audio & Overhead Telepresence Mechanisms (for Work) Synchronous Internet phone & phone conferencing Real. Audio & Overhead graphics Shared applications Whiteboards CU See. Me on POTS… IP Videophone Mbone Video conferencing Room Video conferencing Asynchronous voice mail…STT email. . . TTS Home pages replace bulletin boards, file transport, and document distribution Schedule & “Notes” Voice and Video “email” Telepresentations (meetings, presentations, & courses) Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) DVC ‘ 98 s

Voice and Visual Alternatives (in order of increasing B/W) Voice* n TTS (synthetic or Voice and Visual Alternatives (in order of increasing B/W) Voice* n TTS (synthetic or speaker driven) n 4 Kb-64 Kb codec of real voice n Stereo with sound source identification n Projection into arbitrary virtual world environment *variable speed Visual AKA Video* n Text avatar (simple… photo) n Avatar with voice sync n Avatar of real person n Video codec based projection – “Postage stamp” … POTS – “Mailing label” … ISDN or 2 x POTS – Compressed VHS (200 Kbps) – MPEG 2 (1 - 4 Mbps) n Speaker tracking, 1 -n cameras n VR image of a large space n 3 d images “holodeck” n Animatron e. g. Barney n Mobile Animatron DVC ‘ 98 s *Meeting in real or virtual world

Telepresentations: The next or another killer app? DVC ‘ 98 s Telepresentations: The next or another killer app? DVC ‘ 98 s

Tools for telepresentations and telecollaboration n n Powerpoint: conference & record, Precept: mbone multicasting Tools for telepresentations and telecollaboration n n Powerpoint: conference & record, Precept: mbone multicasting Net. Show: On demand viewing of video 28. 8 - 100 Kb Cu. See. Me: audio, video, whiteboard Net. Meeting: audio, 2 way video, chat, whiteboard, program sharing Placeware for large scale meetings, presentations, and collaborations DVC ‘ 98 s

Telepresentations “Being There (e. g. meeting, lecture, confererene) Without Really Being There (or Then)” Telepresentations “Being There (e. g. meeting, lecture, confererene) Without Really Being There (or Then)” n n n Presenter or audience need not be physically present Reach a wider audience u “I have a schedule conflict. ” u Anybody with a web connection can participate Reduce costs u No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation DVC ‘ 98 s

Telepresentation Features Essential – High quality audio and Graphics aka slides n Important – Telepresentation Features Essential – High quality audio and Graphics aka slides n Important – Some essence of the presenter even a few still images n Non-Essential – Video of the presenter – Two-way communication n DVC ‘ 98 s

Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by 2001. ACM 97 was the first telepresented Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by 2001. ACM 97 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. http: //www. research. microsoft. com/acm 97 n Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it. n Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education? DVC ‘ 98 s n

But does anyone want telework? DVC ‘ 98 s But does anyone want telework? DVC ‘ 98 s

Problems: socio vs technical n n n Isolation & loneliness – need for communication/stimulation Problems: socio vs technical n n n Isolation & loneliness – need for communication/stimulation – chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas – loss of group/teamwork skills – danger of becoming “terminal” interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ? s supervision and ability to have 1: 1 unclear that many people want it… they simply need the contact with. DVC ‘ 98 s people

A People Model: Does anyone want telepresence? Spock formal (in writing) Analyticals. . being A People Model: Does anyone want telepresence? Spock formal (in writing) Analyticals. . being right, detailed email Drivers… results oriented broadcast - push megalomaniacs Self-control anal retentives informal (verbal) Amiables… consensus builders Expressives. . . want recognition, need contact -------chat--------Sally Field spineless wimps Souter 2 D Model Int en psychotics Evangelism Managing Interpersonal Relationships (MIR) sit y DVC ‘ 98 s Swaggert

Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Continent World Body Region/ Cars… phys. nets Intranet Home… Campus buildings Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms DVC ‘ 98 s

“ By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and “ By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. ” Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed) DVC ‘ 98 s

Two, $1 K Bets with Nicholas Negroponte on Internet Growth That by December 31, Two, $1 K Bets with Nicholas Negroponte on Internet Growth That by December 31, 2000 there will be 1 billion users on the web. n (5: 1 odds) That by December 31, 2001, there will be 1 billion users on the web. n DVC ‘ 98 s

Growth in users? World population@1. 6% Internet growth extrapolated@98% DVC ‘ 98 s Growth in users? World [email protected] 6% Internet growth [email protected]% DVC ‘ 98 s

Good News n n n Bandwidth will come Audio and video compression is improving Good News n n n Bandwidth will come Audio and video compression is improving to live within POTS limit Videophones will be built-into all PCs within 5 years at 0 cost Telepresentations are here for “live” and “on demand” use This will change education! Telecollaboration tools work for DVC ‘ 98 s simple apps…

Telework: Summary The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W. Technology is coming, Telework: Summary The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W. Technology is coming, research lags in handling – Storage of all text, audio, and useful video – Videophones, cameras, net. PCs, Web. TV, etc. – More pixels we require to increase “presence” – Adequate audio… the “killer” component n A big part of telework is just office productivity – Coexistence with computer, paper, telephone, – Data-types require a multimedia database – Computer and network management is a real “time killer” n CSCW is a rathole. We don’t understand CW – The killer apps are simple: telepresentations and shared apps n Being connected all the time is essential n n DVC ‘ 98 s

“Therapy from long distance debated” - SJ Mercury 5 April 1998 http: //www. sjmercury. “Therapy from long distance debated” - SJ Mercury 5 April 1998 http: //www. sjmercury. com/breaking/headline 1/056580. htm DVC ‘ 98 s

The End DVC ‘ 98 s The End DVC ‘ 98 s

Bonus slides: Gordon’s very own answers to the 16 questions posed in the DVC Bonus slides: Gordon’s very own answers to the 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure DVC ‘ 98 s

Will streaming video bring the Internet to its knees? n n n Depends on Will streaming video bring the Internet to its knees? n n n Depends on the data-rate. Is it 28. 8 Kbps? Or > 4500 Kbps for DVD and HDTV-quality? By definition, it won’t or can’t because It won’t be deployed if the network can’t support it Better question: What forms will streaming video take over the next five years for the corporate user? What forms will streaming video take as a function of time for the home internet user? DVC ‘ 98 s

What are the essential ingredients for success in remote collaboration? n n n The What are the essential ingredients for success in remote collaboration? n n n The type of work… it has to be “coarse grain” I. e. little interaction among the collaborators per unit of collaboration and work output Telepresentation-type collaboration does work The application supporting it Great audio Were you able to collaborate in a single site? DVC ‘ 98 s

How much interoperability is really out there? Not much…among vendors. n Microsoft has a How much interoperability is really out there? Not much…among vendors. n Microsoft has a solution to this problem and we comply with the various ITU standards n DVC ‘ 98 s

Which technology will win the broadband access battle -- cable modems or DSL products? Which technology will win the broadband access battle -- cable modems or DSL products? I. e. the dumb or the blind? n Cable will lead in the short term because of the inherent ease of doing it, its low cost, and the possibility that users could simply buy their cable modems and attach them. n Not a given because the transition to digital channels will confuse things n But in the long term, service most likely has to be Central Office based for reliability and scalability and for symmetry. DVC ‘ 98 s

Why are desktop video conferencing sales growing faster in the consumer market than in Why are desktop video conferencing sales growing faster in the consumer market than in business market? n n n n It would be surprising if videoconferencing sales are growing faster. Surely 2 way videophone is growing Clearer need: the videophone It is easy to do for videophone use Lack of a great product that works Lace of infrastructure on the net, including firewalls Audio isn’t good enough… I. e. acceptable DVC ‘ 98 s

How will Disney use the Internet to distribute multimedia content? Slowly… look at their How will Disney use the Internet to distribute multimedia content? Slowly… look at their site with a young child n Games, cartoons, and stories n To engage the users into stories like Disney. Land or Disney. World n DVC ‘ 98 s

What does it cost to multicast video to thousands of users from a single What does it cost to multicast video to thousands of users from a single stream? n n n Do you have the bandwidth for one or more channels? If so, the cost is nil. Is it just for internal multicasting? Do you want to send to the internet or just receive? All these require just doing it… FYI: Multicasting using Net. Show is built in to NT DVC ‘ 98 s

Which streaming media technology places the least demand on your network server? The Mbone Which streaming media technology places the least demand on your network server? The Mbone standards… are just fine n Not using “on demand” n However, “on demand” is the most useful and flexible, by far n DVC ‘ 98 s

Can videoconferences be made secure? n Is this really a problem? DVC ‘ 98 Can videoconferences be made secure? n Is this really a problem? DVC ‘ 98 s

How can the enterprise network be used to transmit voice? Wait n Adequate and How can the enterprise network be used to transmit voice? Wait n Adequate and reliable LANs n Platforms that support voice are available n It really happens when you incorporate desktop IP telephony n DVC ‘ 98 s

What are the costs and logistics of broadcasting live over the internet? Why would What are the costs and logistics of broadcasting live over the internet? Why would you want to? n You have to use the Mbone channels today or the equivalent of extra-nets? n A more realistic scenario would be “on demand” from your site. Anyone can do this! n DVC ‘ 98 s

What is being done to simplify life for multipoint users? n Who he/she? DVC What is being done to simplify life for multipoint users? n Who he/she? DVC ‘ 98 s

How do you integrate audio and video into your web pages? n Just do How do you integrate audio and video into your web pages? n Just do it! DVC ‘ 98 s

With the emergence of IP telephony, is regular POTS conferencing dead? Yes, but n With the emergence of IP telephony, is regular POTS conferencing dead? Yes, but n It is going to take 3 -5 years before IP telephony becomes ubiquitous enough n It will probably build from a product/technology like Net. Meeting n Should ask: t what kind of environment or use? n DVC ‘ 98 s

What are the best measures of videoconferencing quality? The existing systems using dedicated links What are the best measures of videoconferencing quality? The existing systems using dedicated links n Whether users can get work done n DVC ‘ 98 s

Will video chat develop like keyboard chat and generate millions of minutes of usage Will video chat develop like keyboard chat and generate millions of minutes of usage for on line services? n n n It already is. Go visit a Porno studio, however this is really one way chat Unclear how much n-way video chat will be used Expect Net. Meeting et al will be the enablers and meetings could be the “killer app” Don’t count out shared games as the enabler and avenue for chat & collaboration Some consumer research questions: Do you want voice at all or text with avatars and comic chat? Or would you rather chat using just voice, voice DVC ‘ 98 and avatars, lip-synced images of yourself, 10 -30 s fps talking images?