Telecommunications for the future - 5 Rob Parker CERN IT Division R. Parker - CERN
Which solution for “fixed” users? who want significantly higher rates from the cabled network than ISDN can offer? R. Parker - CERN 2
Summary of fixed (cabled) technologies for distribution speed bits/s “always on” availability standard Modem 56 k no now yes ISDN 64 k no now yes ADSL 100 k-6 M yes now yes CATV 100 k-10 M yes now no Fibre >100 M yes now no R. Parker - CERN 3
My prediction for fixed users • ADSL will be heavily used: – where it is available – and, it will be widely available • WLL will be used: – where ADSL is not available – if competitive circumstances make it more economical than ADSL R. Parker - CERN 4
What solution for mobile users? R. Parker - CERN 5
Summary of mobile (wireless) technologies for “wide area” speed bits/s “always on” availability standard GSM 14. 4 k no now yes HSCSD 57. 6 k no 2001 yes GPRS 171. 2 k yes 2001 yes EDGE 384 k yes 2002 yes ~200 k/2 M yes 2003 yes 3 G R. Parker - CERN 6
Summary of mobile (wireless) technologies for “local area” speed bits/s frequency availability standard HIPERLAN 1 20 M 5 GHz limited, now yes HIPERLAN 2 6 -54 M 5 GHz end 2001 yes IEEE 802. 11 b 1, 2, 5. 5, 11 M 2. 4 GHz now yes R. Parker - CERN 7
3 G economics • assume that there are 300 M mobile subscribers in |Europe • assume that those interested in 3 G are the 10% described earlier, who want LAN access rates (the other 90% get nothing extra from 3 G) • assume that they all accept 3 G, in spite of the data rates being much less than a LAN (0. 2 -2 M instead of 10 M) • then there will be 30 M 3 G subscribers R. Parker - CERN 8
3 G economics (contd. ) • 3 G licences and infrastructure in Europe will cost ~300 billion USD – ie. 10, 000 USD per subscriber • even if the operators do not amortize their investment, they will have to pay interest charges of, say, 5% ie. 500 USD / subscriber/year, ie. a monthly subscription of 40 USD R. Parker - CERN 9
3 G economics (end) • If some of the 10% of users who want high speed find that GSM/GPRS + IEEE 802. 11 b is enough, the charges for the rest will be correspondingly higher CONCLUSION: 3 G IS NOT GOING TO BE AN OBVIOUS CHOICE R. Parker - CERN 10
My prediction for mobile users • the 40% who need 100 kbit/s “always on” will use GSM and its enhancements (GPRS & EDGE) • the 10% who want Ethernet speeds will use: – wireless LAN (probably IEEE 802. 11 b) which will be available in all major airports, hotels, convention centres etc. – GSM with GPRS/EDGE where a wireless LAN is not available R. Parker - CERN 11
Killer application for GPRS/EDGE • a combined GSM phone & PDA • potential market: the 40% + 10% of mobile users who will want data (150 M users) • potential profit: 15 billion USD • Specification: – size of Palm – GSM with GPRS and/or EDGE – Bluetooth for synchronization with PCs and to provide laptop connectivity R. Parker - CERN 12
Summary Fixed users: ADSL or WLL Mobile users: GPRS/EDGE IEEE 802. 11 b Hotels, airports: implement IEEE 802. 11 b (and charge for it!) GSM operators: implement GPRS/EDGE quickly 3 G operators: PRAY! R. Parker - CERN 13
THE END! R. Parker - CERN 14
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