Technology Trends 2004 -2008 Bob Hayward These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -quote. requests@gartner. com.
The Long View – Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business Embedded Connectivity Relative importance Logical Connectivity Physical Connectivity PCs Mainframes "Knowledge" Age Nano & Quantum Age Silicon Age 1970 1980 1990 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2000 ? 2010 2020 2030
Technology Laws and Innovation Continue… Moore’s Law – The Fifth Paradigm Electromechanical Relay Transistor Vacuum Tube Integrated Circuit 10+10 Exponential Scale Calculations Per Second Per $1, 000. 10+8 10+6 10+4 10+2 10 10 -2 10 -4 10 -6 1900 1910 1920 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1930 1940 1950 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
The Hype Cycle Do not join in just because it is "in" Positive Hype Negative Hype Do not miss out just because it is "out" Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Maturity © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 3 Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity
Emerging technologies hype cycle Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Two to five years Instant messaging, retail Visibility Five to 10 years More than 10 years Web services Mobile applications, corporate Business rules engine Document imaging Mobile payments Document management/archive Network identity services Partner relationship management (PRM) Sales planning and pricing tools Mobile applications, retail Instant messaging, corporate Grid computing Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Data mining Contact chip cards, Europe Artificial intelligence Biometrics E-tag Intelligent agents/push technology E-signatures Speech and voice technologies Contact chip cards, U. S. Chip-based cards, corporate Trough of Disillusionment Maturity 4 Slope of Enlightenment As of May 2003 Plateau of Productivity
Radar Screen Benefit Digital Wallets Web Services New business WAP/Wireless Web E-Tags Location Sensing models E-Payments Bluetooth Nanocomputing Wireless Vo. IP LANs/802. 11 New Speech Recognition processes Personal Fuel Cells Grid Biometrics P 2 P Computing Natural Text-to-Speech Language Improved PKI VPN PDA Search processes Phones Low: demonstrations, prototypes and pilots © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Maturity Moderate: Usable with motivation
Technologies at Different Speeds Biometrics “Autonomic Computing” Desktop Videoconferencing DNA-Computing Fiber optics Tele-Immersion Holographic Storage Nano-Computing Quantum-Decryption “Intelligent Agents” Machine Translation Intelligent Clothes Handwriting Recognition Smart Dust Speech Recognition n n One to two decades from trigger to plateau Science-fiction-like fascination Inherent complexity, business implications. Reliance on certain infrastructure, skills “Fast Track” Technologies n n n Internet E-mail Long-fuse technologies Two to four years from trigger to plateau IM, SMS, USB Performance peaks early Flash Cards. Uses current infrastructure/standards Easy to use Vendor support © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 6
Gartner Predicts: Ten Hot Technologies 2004 The Top Ten Technologies Instant Messaging Real Time Data Warehouse Wi. Fi Security Internal Web Services Policy based management IP Telephony Utility Computing Grid Computing Network Security Technologies RFID Tags Issues Resolved © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Maturing in 18 -36 months Wider Applicability Lowered Risk
Instant Messaging in the Enterprise Values: Presence Service Real-time No rewind Low overhead Security concerns: Data protection Privacy Tamper resistance © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Other Issues: Lack of audit trail Qo. S limitations Poor integration capability Lost record of decisions Text focused, limited media 8
Options for developing a ‘Real-Time’ Data Warehouse “Creative Scheduling” Source Replication Source ETL ETL ETL Replicate Source Replicate DW Data Warehouse As An Application Source Avoid The Issue — No Data Warehouse! Source Integration Broker Source ETL DW Target Apps. © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. DW BI Tools and Applications 9
On the Cusp of the Most Fundamental Change to Business Since The Internet n IT Architecture, concepts and business philosophy have reached a critical tipping point: – Service Oriented Architectures (SOA), Event Driven Architectures (EDA), Service Oriented Business Applications (SOBA), Service Oriented Development of Applications (SODA), Web Services, Real Time Enterprise (RTE), Business Process Management (BPM) and Modeling and Business Process Fusion gaining major traction and move towards critical mass and mainstream adoption Maturity in these areas will drive dramatic changes in the way we do business, to a degree not seen since the advent of the Internet © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 10
No Business Is an Island: The Increased Dependence on IT for Business Processes Customer Business Process IT IT Low High Integration of IT and Business Processes © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 11
Key Trend: Software as a Services provisioned by service provider (i. e. , like voice services provided by a telco) – customer buying a service with no concern or awareness of enabling applications Business Focus & Alignment n External applications managed by service provider - customer buying access to an application n n Business Services – – – Application agnostic Net-native software Pay for use Business process focused Lower cost Software As Service – – – Speed to solution Rental model Remote delivery Vertical templates Medium cost Software As Product – License model – Customization required – Post implementation hosting – Expensive External applications managed by customer – customer buying application Time © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 12 2014
Internal Use of Web Services Scope of Deployment XML-driven internet cross-industry extended supply chain Level 3: Unlimited- Potential Prospects, Suppliers, and Influencers — 2007 Level 2: Limited External-Trading Partner Integration — 2005 “B” Scope of Control “C” U. S. & Int’l standards bodies industry consortia (public) Level 1: channel Internal“C” =Open Sourced master (private) Building Web Services- cross“A” UDDI Directories enterprise E-hubs. CIO “B” = Shared Web closely 2003 crossoffice services for chains held supply application 1 dept. . and narrow partner “A” = Proprietary web services for internal integration © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 13 groupings
The Emerging Standards Stack Key: Need Standard eb. XML, UBL, Rosetta. Net Business Semantics Identifying In place Liberty, Passport Eventually Workflow/BPM BPEL 4 WS, BPML, WSCI Building trust User interface Reliability Search & find Description Messaging WS-Security, SAML, XRML WSRP, WSIA WS-Reliable Messaging Format XML Transport Common Internet Protocols (e. g. , TCP/IP, HTTP) Emerging UDDI WSDL Established SOAP © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Entrenched 14
Software As A Service Integrated SODA Environment ISE — Producer Platform Assembly Editor Generators Orchestration Editor Service Wrappers Rules Editor SODA Registry Pub/Sub Runtime Engines Integrated Development Framework and IDE SES Portal Integration Transactions (for example, Customer record (multiple systems, composite or adapted services) M Designers/Modelers SOBA Application Platform Suite (APS) © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 15 Business Application Services P Shared Management Infrastructure ER SOA CR Shared Middleware Infrastructure
2005 to 2006: Move Toward BPF and RTE With Composite Applications 1998: Rigid and simple Proprietary, monolithic app suites & modules, MOM 2005 -6: Flexible but complex Web-enabled, services-wrapped composite apps BPM 2008: Fusion & consolidation SOA & CEP enabled business process fusion Market Process 1 Process 2 Process 3 Process 4 Business Event Response Function-focused business processes (& MOM) Market Event Process 1 2 3 4 Business Response Cross-function, multienterprise business processes (& BPM) Market Event Business Response End-to-end virtual processes and relationships (& CEP) © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 16
Processing Styles — Remove the Architecture Silos Messaging Data warehouse and analytics Transactions and RDBMS © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Document store and workflow 17
Business Process Fusion Enables End-to-End Applications and Processes Application Style Transaction. Based Systems Analytics Systems Noteworthy Architectural Element RDBMS Data Warehouse Collaboration, Content and Workflow Unstructured Data Mgmt. Determine Yearly Sales Volumes by Customer Analyze Customer Profitability Discuss & Record “T’s & C’s” of Customers’ Relationships Optimize Value of All Contracts With All Customers Business Process Fusion Applications n n Cross-functional processes (internal and external) End-to-End process support © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 18 n n n All content types Embedded analytics Services-based
Application Requirements Expand Data to Knowledge; Transactions to Process Innovation Maturity Mission- Business in 2003 Critical Value End-to-End Processing Low Business Process Fusion Business Collaboration Smart Enterprise Suites, Multienterprise Transaction Processing ERP, SCM, Customer Transactions, etc. Leverage Enterprise Knowledge Content, Data, Analytics, Relationship Mgmt Flexible Application Platform Portal, Integration, App Server, APS, SOA © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 19 2007 Low 2005 High Now Med 2005 Low 2004 High Low
Gartner Predicts: Application Development Models, Toolsets Are Changing New Projects Programming Models Professional Developers 3 M 100% Proprietary Vendor 4 GL, AS/400 RPG, Mainframe COBOL, etc. Visual Basic 6 and lower Java Visual Basic. NET COBOL 2 M C# 50% Microsoft. NET Microsoft DNA C/C++ 1 M Java Platforms 2002 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Static and Unshared Islands Service A Service B (And Many Service C Others) Edge Application Database Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 • Inefficient • Overprovisioned • Hard to manage
Policy Based Management: The Real-Time Infrastructure Black-Box Application Services INPUTS Workloads Policies • • OUTPUTS Definition of IT Service Agreements User Class Business Priorities Applications Databases Middleware Resources Compute Actual User Experience Store Network Policy-based, dynamic, cost-efficient: • Provisioning: Deployment, Growth • Optimization: Resource Efficiency • Availability: Predictable, Service Level © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 22 IT Services
IP Telephony IP telephony issues Vo. IP on WAN issues Features vs PBX Qo. S control Scalability Economics vs carrier trends Reliability IP variable latency Qo. S and sharing networks Standards and interoperability Interoperability Some Missing Features Very Large IP telephony (2, 000 or more phones) Large IP Telephony (500 or more phones) Less then 500 phones; Vo. IP over WAN Attendant console Least cost routing Busy override Trunk callback queuing Blind transfer © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 23
Utility Computing • Utility computing • Buy the services of system, not HW/SW • Separates the ‘what’ from the ‘how’ • Pricing model tends toward usage • Examples: ASPs, SSPs, MSPs, hosting services • Access them various ways • Web services • Browsers • Thick clients 8. 6 B$ 2003 • . . . © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 24 25 B$ 2006
GRID Computing Application Owner A © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Owner B 25 Owner C
Utility Computing and GRID Application Utility selling grid resources Owner A © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 26
New Network Security Technology Firewalls IDS VA Gateway AV 2002 U In the n Content Scanning Cloud i MSS f ? Gigabit+ i e d M Policies and Security a Parameters n Platform a g e Sub? m Intrusion 100 Mb e Prevention Antin spam Appliances t © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2004 27 Honey Pots, Application Traces and Forensics 2006
RFID Tag Successor to Bar Codes n Can read even covered n Can read while moving n Can scan at distance n Survives water, heat, painting n Price dropping to low levels n Remain in product for life Potential Applications n Locate common objects n Improved asset control n Real-time retail-shelf inventory n Move to faster or self-checkout n Improve manufacturing and supply-chain efficiency n After-sale services offerings Current Applications n Toll pass systems n Pet identification n Access cards n Retail theft protection n Electronic parolee tracking Photos source Texas Instruments © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 28
“Smart” Objects • Passive tags temporarily attached to medium-/highvalue items. • Passive tags in every nontrivial object. • Dedicated communication and computation is applied in specialized situations only. • Active intelligence wireless networking and sensing capabilities cost under 50 c and are widely distributed. • Computers are relatively large and long-lived. • The majority of computers are invisible and disposable. 2015 2002 • Bar coded shopping. • Nothing is ever lost. • Inventory tagging. • Everything is identifiable. • Specialized industrial tagging. • Many objects know their history and can interact wirelessly. © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29
Analysis: Mind the Gap Analysis Gap More information n n n Digital footprints (Sensors, RFID) Self-service Information extraction Unstructured data sources Embedded connectivity Metadata and tags © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Action Gap Improved understanding n n n Improved algorithms Targeted algorithms Integrated analysis 30 Improved decisions n n Business rules Business process fusion
Gartner Predicts: Linux in the Enterprise: Grass Roots Internet Access Client Devices Line of Business Infrastructure Server/Blade • • • Desktops Proxy Caching VPN Firewall WAP Vo. IP Gateway • • Directory Security Load balance File/print Web E-mail NAS • • ERP SCM CRM HR Data/Content Server/ Warehouse • • Databases Consolidation on z. Series Compute Clusters Network Edge Servers © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Business Application Server Enterprise Data Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize 31
Gartner Predicts: Smart Enterprise Suite — A New Wave of Software Consolidation Office Suite Word Processor Spreadsheet Charting Personal Database © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. ERP Suite Material Requirements Planning Inventory Control Financials Human Resources 32 Smart Enterprise Suite Collaboration Support Content Management Information Access Portal Framework
SES — What to Expect Content management Collaboration Information organization and retrieval Business intelligence Portal framework Ad hoc process support Expertise location and management Community support With: n Sufficient range of functionality n Aggressive n Coherent offer for individual, team and enterprise processes n Integration across suite — for user and administration n Services © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. price points and support
Three Megatrends Connected Society wireless Smart Networked Objects wearables location-based services digital ink RFID Wi-Fi ultra-wide band smart dust smart phones MEMS Semantic Connectivity Semantic Web XBRL © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. embedded computing automatic tagging affinity profiles information extraction
Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade PDA Hub n By 2007, hubs (central units without peripherals) will emerge that connect many peripherals (e. g. , via PAN). n Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP 3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling n Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center A mix of technologies, e. g. , Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x. y, 2. 5/3/4 G, will allow best economical mix: Mesh reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach Networks n Sensor Mesh Networks/Monitoring n Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play Tags, Motes, GPS © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. n RFID, Smart Dust (Smart Peas), GPS Sensors n Fleet Management (AVLDS), Inventory Management n Optimized Traffic Routing 35
Mobile Network Evolution Location precision of 80 M or better 2006 ? WCDMA 1 x-EV DV cdma 2000 1 x. RTT 2005 WCDMA EV DO 2004 Cell location 2003 Cell location (worst GPRS (worst case, several 2002 several Km) 2001 TDMA CDMA GSM © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. EDGE GPRS CDMA 36 GSM 3 G Assume 200 -300 Kbps 2. 5 G Assume 80 -100 Kbps EDGE, 20 -40 Kbps GPRS 2 G Assume 9. 6 -19. 6 Kbps
Short-Range Wireless Adjacent Near field Passive RFID Active RFID Personal Area Local Area UWB 802. 15. 4 (Zigbee) Bluetooth Proprietary mesh 802. 11 a, b e, g, h, i, f (b = Wi-Fi) Proprietary PAN 1 M © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 10 M Metropolitan 802. 16 a (Wi-Max) 802. 16 b (mobile) Proprietary fixed mesh 802. 20 (mobile) 100 M 37 1 KM
Device Innovation, 2003 -2005 Market Trends g Fashion is still key g Annuity handset revenue g Nokia n-gage console g Asian manufacturers Consumer Technology Trends g Color, polyphonic sound g Imaging, video, cameras g Game technology g M-commerce hardware g Greater competition, e. g. , Dell, Microsoft g Fragmentation, not convergence g Java everywhere g Form-factor proliferation g Slow Bluetooth deployment Microsoft and Symbian battle for corporate "mind share" g No single-standard corporate device g Integrated WLAN g Microsoft. NET grows g 1 GHz, PDA by 2005 g Tablet PC g © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Corporate 38
The Diverse Mobile User Mobile Population B 2 C B 2 E, B 2 B, B 2 G M 2 M Pre-Teen Mobile Exec. Caregiver Meters Teen Sales Hazardous Vending Young Adult Knowledge Worker Education Kiosk Site Rover ATM Middle Aged Fleet Delivery Point of Sale Dock Worker Field Service Warehouse Mass Transit Construction/ Maintenance Critical Workers Site Security Supervisory Control Preventative Maintenance Senior Citizen Traveling Workers (Road Warriors) © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Head Office Telecommuter SMB 39 Campus Workers Office. Centric Vehicular
Primary Modes of Mobile Workers Power Knowledge Forms Alerts Thin client, Read, onebutton response Avg. Annual Cost: $416 Unstructured messages Message Well-defined, and forms, structured E-mail-centric, cached thin/slim thick client slim offline Avg. Annual client Avg. Annual Cost: $2, 296 Avg. Annual Cost: $889 Cost: $1, 183 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Gartner estimates as of February 2003 40 Full fidelity thick client Avg. Annual Cost: $3, 106
Computer Human Interaction in the Next Decade n Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position n Gait Analysis, Infrared n Emotion/Lie Detection n SPA: Most CHI will remain keyboard-driven throughout 2015 (0. 7 probability) Human Computer n OLED/OLEP, E-Ink n Head-Mounted Displays n Speech Synthesis n Avatars, Synthetic Characters Logic Computer Human Natural Language Search n Machine Translation n Taxonomies/Browsing n © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. n Personalization 41
The Connected Economy Opens the Door to New Dependencies and Threats Geographical & cultural remoteness Political & social instability Services Electronic fraud Lack of trust in Internet security IP IP Supply Chain Uncontrolled distribution of information Services IP IP Supply Chain Supplier dependency In recent years, we have witnessed terrorist attacks, political unrest, war and most recently SARS which has forced us to urgently address the business issues of globalization in a way never before required © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 42
The Basics Demand Attention and Spending: Security, Governance, Transparency The World in 1995 -2002 The World in 2003 -2006 n Enterprise Security n Creative Accounting n Secrecy, Confidentiality n Investors Seek Big Ideas n Audit Provides Opinions n Better Management n Universal Security n Compliant Accounting n Transparency n Investors Seek Value n Audit Certifies Accuracy n Better Governance 2004 -06: 50% annual increases in spending for “basic” applications to ensure security, governance and transparency Lower spending, less attention to next-generation applications © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 43
Regulation is Tightening on Corporate Governance Management, Privacy and Security Database Security Breach Notification Act (California) Turnbull (All industries, UK) Data Protection Directives (EU) Sarbanes-Oxley (All industries, USA) IFRS (accounting, Australia) Basel II (Financial Services, world-wide) [pending] © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 44
This Next Wave of Technology Will Cause Massive Disruption in the IT Workforce and Societies Infrastructure becomes more reliable and robust IT professionals that are now employed to perform administration and maintenance functions must upgrade their skills Application development shifts to a service model Programmers also must upgrade their skill sets. Assembly overtakes coding. Secure robust, wireless networks will reach critical mass Broadband, wireless, Linux, content management, real-time analytics, data mining, security, middleware and certification skills will be highly valued Global, ubiquitous communications Arbitrage of costs, global delivery models Replacement or reduction of entire industries © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 45
Technology Trends 2004 -2008 Bob Hayward These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -quote. requests@gartner. com.
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