Swiss Franc Valuation Nation Presented By: n. Maggie O’Connell n. Colleen Traeger n. David Terschluse n. Sean Mc. Connell
And we are not John Stiver
Economic Growth n n Current GDP at $250 billion (289. 75 B CHF) Recent GDP growth followed ’ 01 -’ 03 recession Predicted 2. 1% growth for ’ 05 Net assets exceed GDP at 135%
Money Growth and Trade n n n Imposed ceiling on inflation at 2% Predicted ’ 05 inflation growth – 0. 8% Large Current Account and trade surpluses Fiscal account deficit of 2. 5% in ’ 04 due to significant influx of investment Economy holds about 35% of world’s offshore funds
CHF Facts n n n Managed floating fiat currency, backed by gold and other currency holdings Most stable by reputation Unlikely EU member Significant appreciation during US ’ 70 s-’ 80 s inflation, depreciation during ’ 90 s Appreciation, along with Euro, ever since 9/11/01
Technical Analysis* Resistance Main Trendline Support Resistance Channel Line New Main Trendline? *Swiss Franc per US $ Support • Since September 2004, the Franc has appreciated in value relative to the dollar • Most recent breakthrough of main trendline shows continued appreciation
Cheese Anyone?
Our Cheesy Predictions n n Modest appreciation Mitigation of appreciation with low interest rates Possible peak and change of trend Possible depreciation due to overvaluation of CHF according to PPP
Analyst Comments n Previous bottom and the Fibonacci support may give another upward movement from 1. 1620 -60 range. – Rahul Chandra, Forex strategist n USD/CHF is in a downtrend directed by 1 H exponential moving averages. Volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. Should continue to 1. 1750. – Arnaud Jeulin, Mataf. net strategist n Price dipped marginally bellow our support, and given the bullish divergences we feel there is good case for the resumption of upside. – Iam Copsey, FX-Strategy currency strategist
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