SWFDP in the Antilles RA IV Potential engagement

SWFDP in the Antilles (RA IV) Potential engagement of METEOFRANCE MARTINIQUE as a Regional Forecast Support Facility (RFSF) Jean-Noel DEGRACE Météo-France Antilles-Guyane SWFDP / APPORTS project manager RSMT meeting, Martinique 13 -15 December 2016

Plan Background Role and workplan of Meteo-France as a RFSF Other considerations

PRE-EXISTING FACILITIES An existing Meteo-France regional forecast office - Located in Martinique - Significant experience in synoptic analysis and regional guidance - Coordination mechanism between Martinique - Guadeloupe- French Guiana, especially for severe weather threat (MHEWS = « Vigilance system » ) - Specific product for severe weather in the Antilles for the « French Regional Emergency Management Institution » (EMIZA, counterpart of CDEMA for the French territories)

SYNTHETIC VISION OF THE ROLE OF THE RFSFC = Regional and operational interface in a cascading system between Global Centers and NMHSs, providing guidance for severe weather Flash Flood Guidance System Other integrated systems Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) Feedback and Verification Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools Radio; TV Specific Communication Systems General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc. ) E-mail; etc. Media (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) National Met Centres Regional Centre (RFSFC) Observing and information systems SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. Disaster Management and Civil Protection GDPFS WMO SP TC Guidance Products (and coordination) WIGOS, WIS RSMCs-TC Global and Regional NWP/EPS products WWRP Global Centres PWS (From WMO/ SWFDP)

POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Develop and run a web-based operational platform (upgrade of the Extranet SHERPA), as per Members’ specifications, for access and sharing of information : Regional and local observations (Synoptic station, local AWS, buoys/waveriders, radar products, satellite images, …) NWP (deterministic and probabilistic) from participating global centers (ECMWF, METEO-FRANCE, NCEP, CANADA, UKMET, CIMH, ? ? ? ) Severe weather guidance products and graphical analysis from the RFSFC Tropical cyclone products from RSMC Miami (links ? ) Access to SHERPA : www. meteo. fr/extranets ( User/pwd protected)

POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Basic operational role of the RFSF for guidance as seen by Meteo. France Issuing regular regional guidance productions based on human expertise over the SWFDP Ao. R (Area of Responsability). Human expertise of all available products and productions of regional guidance for severe weather in the SWFDP domain on a routine basis * for example : the next 24 -48 hours (? ) + outlook up to 3 -5 days (? ), graphics and table (? )

POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Basic operational role of the RFSF for guidance as seen by Meteo. France Issuing regular regional guidance productions based on human expertise over the SWFDP Ao. R (Area of Responsability). Human expertise of all available products and productions of regional guidance for severe weather in the SWFDP domain on a routine basis • example from SWFDP RA 1 (Pretoria) http: //rsmc. weathersa. co. za/index. php

POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Insurance that each territory of the domain that is under a threat has been fully informed and is aware of the type (heavy rain-thunderstorm / dangerous sea at coast / strong wind ) and the level ( to be determined) of the danger for the next 24 - 48 hours. A real time coordination mechanism (a crucial aspect !) needs to be established with a progressive power up 3 possibilities, from the easiest and most simple way to the top procedure (ex: RSMC Miami), depending on - Human resources - Capacities (language barrier …) - Tools for real-time exchange and discussion Level 1= Guidance products once or twice a day and acknowlegment (email / chat) from NHMS having territories under a threat. Level 2= Level 1 + possible real-time discussion between forecasters by chat/email + sharing of complementary graphics/maps/charts Level 3= Level 2 + phone call between RFSF and each NHMS having territories under a threat Mandatory coordination between RFSF and RSMC in case of tropical cyclone threat over the domain

POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Define* complementarity activities/actions with CMO/CIMH (pre-identified as the SWFDP-Caribbean regional training center) Initial training workshop Routine (yearly) training and feedback workshop (forecasters and/or trainers) Programme for exchange of forecasters Required competencies ? * Based on specifications coming up from the region

POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Define* key areas of improvment (knowledges, capacities, tools, …) R & D approach * Radar : calibration, quantification, downscaling per river basin, automated watches and warnings, … * Running and tuning regional / fine mesh models (atmospheric and waves) Impact and consequences approach * Hydrological input / outpout ? ( use of FFGS ) * Marine submersion NWP verification etc. * Based on specifications coming up from the region

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS The implementation of complementary projects or/and activities will be essential to cover the whole chain of severe weather management, especially with regards to service delivery Efficient MHEWS in place in each country / territory for hydro-meteorological risks * Need of a regional watch/warning system such as the one for TC in the RAIV? Strengthening of observing networks and real-time data collection (including buoys/waveriders) * Running cost and maintenance ? Implementation of harmonised dissemination tools ( CAP protocole ? )

MERCI ! THANK YOU VERY MUCH / MUCHAS GRACIAS MESI ANPIL / MERCI BEAUCOUP ! ! ! Jean-Noel DEGRACE Météo-France Antilles-Guyane