Sustainable Transport and Carbon Emissions in Mexico and

Sustainable Transport and Carbon Emissions in Mexico and China: Accomplishments and Potential Lee Schipper, Ph. D. EMBARQ October 2006 1

EMBARQ • A catalyst for socially, financially, and environmentally sound solutions to the problems of urban mobility 2

EMBARQ • Established as a unique center within World Resources Institute in 2002, EMBARQ is now the hub of a network of centers for sustainable transport in developing countries. • Shell Foundation and Caterpillar Foundation are EMBARQ’s Global Strategic Partners, supporting EMBARQ projects worldwide • Additional EMBARQ supporters include – – – – Hewlett Foundation Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs BP US AID Asian Development Bank Energy Foundation Blue Moon Fund US Environmental Protection Agency 3

Sustainable Transport: Mobility, Security, and Environment • Economic Sustainability – Affordable to users – Attractive as business – Each mode or fuel bears full social costs • Social Sustainability – Promotes access for all, not just a few – Builds healthy and solid communities • Environmental Sustainability – Minimizes accidents and damage to human health – Leaves no burdens for future generations – Reduces greenhouse gas emissions – Not Yet Governance is The Roof Over these Pillars Integrating Mobility, Security, and Energy 4

Which Suggest Sustainable Transport? 5

World CO 2 Emissions From Fuel Source: IEA 6

Global CO 2 Emissions from Fuel • Developing World Share Rising – Higher economic growth and urbanization – Shift from renewable to fossil fuels – Rapid industrialization, but more energy efficient • Transport Share Rising Fastest – Vehicles cheaper and cheaper, particularly 2 wheelers – Urbanization driving more private transport, traveling longer distances – Globalization means more goods for int’l trade • Developing Transport Share Rising Most – Transport most urban – roads, infrastructure, cars – Transport share of urban air pollution rising rapidly – Efficiency falling from congestion, poor fuel Oil Imports Remain a Concern in Third World CO 2 Not Yet A Reason to Stop These Developments 7

World CO 2 Emissions Growth: Transport and Other Contrasted Source: IEA 8

The Bush Metric of Success–CO 2/GDP China Has Far Outpaced the US Source: IEA 9

World Oil: The U. S. and China In Context (All figures in per capita terms) U. S. increment in oil use for cars and light trucks 2002 -2003 was half of China’s total in 2003 10

GHG and Transport: Contrasts between Developed and Developing World • Developed World – Steady growth in individual cars since 1920 s – US, Canada change after 1970 s, car saturation today – EU, Japan approaching car saturation at lower level • Developing World – L. America – US patterns from 1960 s – OPEC countries – rapid rise in 1970 s, 1980 s – Rest of Asia – two wheelers, buses, now cars? • The Real Contrast – Time Perspective – Latin America got US patterns, tech, castoffs – Asia moving rapidly from castoffs to leaders? – Asia ahead: Can look back on OECD developments Why Does Asia. Lat. America Want to Look like OECD? 11

CO 2 Emissions from Road Transport Source: IEA 12

Emissions from Road Transport • Two Groups of Countries – “US Like” – High fuel/GDP (US, Mexico, Brazil) – Europe/Japan Like – Uncommitted – China, Viet Nam, Turkey • Driving Factors – Urbanization – Fuel Prices – clear split (exception – Turkey) – Presence of car industry • Mitigating Factors – Fuel Economy agreements, standards in OECD, China – Rising oil prices (? ) and concerns about energy security – World-Wide agreement on CO 2 in transport? CO 2 in Transport May be Restrained by High Oil Prices, Congestion, and 13

Motorization in China and Mexico Source: EMBARQ Is rapid urbanization in China and other countries putting cities and cars on a collision course? Mexican experience says yes. 14

GHG and Transport In Developing World China and Mexico Contrasted • Mexico - Oil Exporter (for how much longer? ) – High car ownership (>100/thousand), poor fuel economy – Fuel prices higher than China, about US level – Low urban shares of walking, cycles, cities stuffed • China - Oil Importer now – Low car ownership (<12/thousand) – China fuel economy standards, but low fuel prices – Cars concentrated in cities with high population densities • The Real Contrast – time perspective – Mexican cities built around cars, denser Chinese cities around feet – Mexico influenced by US, China developing own path – China moving on urban transport, car fuel economy China Moving Earlier in its Development than Mexico 15

CASE STUDIES: CHINA AND MEXICO What Happened and What Could Happen • Mexico – BRT System – Real test – Can a huge city turn the corner? • China – Headed for Mexico congestion on far fewer cars – Not too late to change courses? – Apply Mexico changes to Chinese cities? 16

Mexico City: Past Political Chaos Hindered Sustainable Transport • • • Policy makers in silos: no effective collaboration Political neglect of the bus system Little integration of public modes Road cutting wide swaths through residential neighborhoods filled up rapidly Little cooperation with surrounding jurisdictions Little involvement of NGOs or the private sector There was Little Change until EMBARQ Appeared. 17

Moving Mexico Clean Bus Rapid Transit • Bus Rapid Transit Moving 250 000 people/day – 10 Min/trip time savings and modest fuel/CO 2 reduction – Profitable system based on new business model, not dirty minibuses – Dozen of other Mexican cities want similar systems • Conventional BRT Bus Technology at Minimal Cost – Results show big improvements possible – if buses not stuck in traffic – Tested ultra-low sulfur diesel and CNG in Euro 3 or better engines – Tested two hybrids: modest fuel savings and local emissions reductions • Retrofit Existing Buses with 15 PPM Sulfur Diesel – 90% drop in particulate matter on newest buses – diesel particle filters – Modest drop in NOx and PM on older buses - diesel oxidation catalysts – Commitment by State Oil Co. to introduce ULSD sooner Mexico City Proved Turnaround is Possible Fuel and CO 2 NOT the Driver 18

– No ca rs in bu sl an e! – Next Bus 19

Cars and Urban Transport in China: Symbol for Much of the World? • Congestion: Cars and Other Traffic • • Air Pollution: Too Many Vehicles • • Buses and people stuck in traffic Building more roads makes problem worse Tough policies called for – by whom? Enough old smokers to ruin air New fuels, vehicles improving Emissions from cars could offset improvements Traffic Safety: People First • • • Walkers, cyclists main victims Too many kinds of traffic in same place, unequal road space distribution More cars and speed will kill more people 20

EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China • Base Case – China has Korean car/GDP ratio in 2020 – – – • Oil Saving Scenario – 40% as much oil, some CNG – – – • 120 -160 million cars, 10, 000 -12, 000 km/car 8 -8. 5 L/100 km if no new measures Closer to 2 mn bbl/day oil in 2020 Japanese/Euro level of fuel prices 110 -130 million cars, but less driving/car Take into account fuel economy standards, some hybrids and CNG Integrated Transport - Livable cities with good transport – – – Much lower car ownership and use– avoiding the plague Very small cars (incl. slow electrics, hybrids) to avoid space and congestion problems in cities Serious BRT, Metro, car-use restraint, land-use planning – avoid Mexico 21

The Sustainability Challenge: Cars and CO 2 Emissions in 2020 Sustainable Urban Mobility Saves Cities, Fuel, and 22 Above all, Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Transport Projects and CO 2 Counting: Difficult Bean Counting • Rush to Sell “CO 2 Avoided” in Developing Projects – – – • Various Mechanisms – in Order of Difficulty – – – • Both fuels/vehicles and traffic changes (like BRT) Most projects are small, changes within noise Very difficult to measure or model changes Mayors make feel-good pledges Companies (including WRI) buy offsets Countries buy “additional” options: Clean Dvpt. Mechanism Additionality and CDM Projects – the Real Rub – – – Verification/Certification becomes expensive and time consuming Few non-fuel transport projects truly “additional” Danger of transport projects aimed at CDM, not good transport 23

Transport Project Outcomes: Not always less carbon, hopefully better transport Carbon + Carbon increase, Worse transport Carbon increase, improved transport - + Quality of transport Carbon reduction, Worse transport Fuel, Emissions, Carbon reduction Improved transport 24

Measurements Have to Continue Over Time Example: Mexico City With or Without BRT à Baseline (the contra -factual “without project” case) Emissions Impact: Base-case (Now) Today 25000 -46 000 T/year Project line (the factual “with project” case) Time à Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over time After John Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico 25

GHG Savings at $5/Ton in Mexico City: Hypothetical Insurgentes Corridor Case 26

Fuel Savings ($340/ton): Hypothetical Insurgentes Corridor Case 27

GHG, Fuel, Time ($1/hour) Savings (Ignores less pollution and accidents) 28

Conclusions: Are Mexico and China Decarbonising? • Mexico – Adjustment is difficult – Metrobus a huge step for reform – will there be more? – Fuel economy standards possible next step – Next steps – restraints on car use (congestion pricing? ) • China – Easier to Choose than Change Later – Fuel economy standards a valuable first step – Real urban transport – not just token BRT -- reform next – Next steps – car restraints, protection for NMT • Overall – Fuel economy is necessary but not sufficient – Good urban transport is necessary but not sufficient – More demos of success needed in both countries 29

GHG In Developing World Not an Important Policy Driver: • Little Concrete Action on GHG from Transport – Auto use in Mexico high, in China low but rising rapidly – Wasted fuel, extra air pollution from bad traffic – Less than 20% of urban trips in cars, yet cities stuffed • Some Motion on Fuel Quality and Fuel Economy – Increased stringency on fuel quality and emissions in both countries – China fuel economy standards, Mexico contemplating • Lip Service to the Real Threat – Urban Immobility – More vehicle use, congestion, accidents – Fuel waste and higher greenhouse gas emissions – Higher health and accident risks First Step: More Sustainable Mobility 30

Overall Lessons: Lower Transport in Developing Countries • Beyond Carbon -- Aim at Good Transport – Strong collective transport with some limits on private car use – Strong support for existing NMT – Rein in car-based land-use • Transparent Fuel and Carbon Pricing – Level playing field for transport – Clear price signals to users, operators, manufacturers – End to the subsidies of fuels, vehicles, commuting • Transparent Governance – Stakeholder involvement – Fuel quality and local emissions, fuel economy standards – Clean rules for transport providers, infrastructure development 31

Lee Schipper schipper@wri. org www. embarq. wri. org 32