Sustainable Development: The Role of Information and Communication Technology Alexander Schatten www. schatten. info KORSD Oct. 2009 . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Agenda Information & Communication Technology – Environmental “Footprint” Mitigation ICT supporting Adaptation ICT for Teaching and Public Awareness. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
ICT – Environmental “Footprint” § Resources – Consumption – (Electronic) Waste § Energy Consumption – “Green IT” – Resource Efficiency: “A Factor of 10” – Desktop Computing – Data-Centers and Services – Software as a Service – Cloud Computing – Accounting § ICT as “amplifier” of unsustainable behaviour. . . Photo from ezioman (flickr) Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
ICT and Resource Consumption § ICT is consuming significant amounts of valuable resources § Many resources are scarce or produced under questionable conditions § Valuable are mostly not recycled § “Recycling” is done in developing countries § Companies need to invest into recyclingfriendly product (“cradle-to-cradle”) – Having the whole product-lifecycle in mind at design-time – Avoiding toxic substances like mercury, PVC, flame retardants – Having recycling programs in place – Allowing easy dismantling of products 4. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Example Mobile Phone: Coltan Congo: Most important source for Coltan & one of largest conflict-regions in the world Coltan: Columbite Tantalite Mineral that is used in a broad range of electronic products 5. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Example: Microprocessor Production of a Microprocessor In the 80 s Now ~ 12 Chemical Elements ~ 60 Chemical Elements! Photo by Aranya Sen (flickr) 6. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Electronic Waste (EU) Photo digitalsadhu (flickr) 2/3 Photo Greenpeace 1/3 treated appropriately Treatment of Electronic Waste within EU. Numbers from EU Commission (2008) 7. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Global Population & Energy Population Growth Source: UNO: “The World at Six Billion” http: //www. un. org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion. htm . . . Energy Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration (U. S. Government): International Energy Outlook 2009 http: //www. eia. doe. gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights. html Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Green IT – Numbers $ 8 -9 billion Estimated energy bills of datacenters worldwide 25% Typical IT budget for average company ~ $ 1. 900 Annual expenses for powering and cooling single server (2500 $) 5 years Doubling of Energy Consumption of Servers (2000 -2005) 70 -80% Utilisation of mainframes (70 s, 80 s) ~ 30% Of Servers run under 3% peak and average utilisation; actually are using power and cooling for doing no work 50 -70% Average energy consumption for cooling (HP, Uptime Inst. Study says: 60 -70%) 18 Million Server 2002 122 Million Server 2020 (estimated) Source: Mc. Kinsey and Company, part of a report titled "Revolutionizing Data Center Efficiency”, Malone, C. and Belady, C. (2006) Metrics to Characterise Data Centre & IT Equipment Energy Use. Proc. Digital Power Forum, Richardson, TX, USA, September. Info. World, Ted Samson (2008) Smart 2020 Report Borderstep Institute . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Energy Consumption & Carbon-Footprint by Computers (Examples) (incl. power consumption & embodied energy, data centers, PCs, network devices) Germany 2004: 28 million metric tons CO 2 (Air Traffic 22 MT) OECD 2010: 10% of total energy consumption Global 830 million metric tons CO 2 equals 2% of global carbon footprint assumed to quadruple by 2020 “Some Computer Science Issues in Creating a Sustainable World”, Jennifer Mankoff, Robin Kravets and Eli Blevis, IEEE Computer Magazine (2008) Data from “The Climate Group”, OECD, Presentation 2009 from Klaus Fichter Photo from jmsuarez (Flickr) Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme . . .
The Power of “ 10”: Game Consoles ~ 200 W Playstation 3 Xbox 360 Playstation 2 ~ 50 W ~ 20 W 13. . . Nintendo Wii Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
The Power of “ 10”: PCs PC with CRT ~ 150 -250 W ~ 100 -200 W PC with LCD ~ 50 W Thin Client with LCD ~ 10 -45 W Notebook ~2 W 14 OLPC / XO Photos from Flickr: Gene, Plutor, John Pastor, One Laptop per Child . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Data-Centers and Services “Hummer Strategy” … or Virtualisation, Cloud Computing and Software as Service? Photo from Paul Keleher, Flickr 17. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
“Green IT”: Virtualisation and In-House Services § Datacenter In-House § Replace Volume Servers with varying utilisation or low utilisation with virtual machines running in one power-server § Remove Fat-Clients where not absolutely necessary and replace them with thin-clients and web-applications or thin-clients using remote desktops § Provide support for tele-working (virtual private networks…) § Get consulting for “green” operation of data-center including issues like: – Optimising Facilities – Highest possible operation temperature – Reuse of heat (e. g. for building/office heating) § Better: get rid of all services that can be outsourced (see following slides) 18. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
What is Cloud Computing? § Cloud computing is the IT equivalent of the Energy Grid – Rent services and computing power as needed – Use Cloud Computing to scale as needed § Typical “Cloud” Services – – Operation of Virtual Servers (e. g. Amazon EC 2) Network storage solutions (e. g. Amazon S 3) Database Services (e. g. Amazon Simple. DB) Application Runtime Environments (e. g. Google App. Engine) – Middleware Services (e. g. Amazon Message Queue) – E-Commerce Applications (e. g. Payment Services) – Various Services (e. g. Zoho Office …). . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Amplifying Unsustainable Behaviour § Rebound Effects – More efficient steam engines higher coal consumption – More efficient cars (“Prius”) cheaper kilomerter higher mileage – More efficient production (“Tata cars”) much more cars on the street higher overall consumption § Enabling Effects: – Modern logistics: Photo by photohome_uk (flickr) • Flights become cheaper more travel • Transportation becomes more efficient and cheaper transport over greater distances § Unplanned Effects: – More Communication does not lead to less travel, the opposite is true 26. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Agenda Information & Communication Technology – Environmental “Footprint” Mitigation ICT supporting Adaptation ICT for Teaching and Public Awareness 27. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Why ICT? E. g. UPS: Left-turns no longer allowed! Photo by iirraa (flickr) Because optimisation opportunities will emerge, that you never might have thought of!. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
The Flat World § Thomas Friedman, ”The world is flat” § We move(d) from – Command Control to – Collaborate and Connect Economy/Society § 3 Billion people reach for the western lifestyle – It is impossible to fulfil this demand with the current approach § Economy, knowledge, work-force, natural-resources are global issues . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
In a flat world and a connected economy there are hardly local problems Any significant problem in a country like Indonesia, India, China or USA… is immediately a global problem. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Example Indonesia: The Economist (2006) § Indonesia is losing almost 2 m hectares of forest a year (an area about the size of Wales or Massachusetts) § Illegal logging also carries big costs for the human beings involved. Wellmanaged forests continue to provide wood, and therefore revenue, indefinitely. But those that have been overexploited, or simply carelessly run let alone razed will yield little or no money in the future. § The government of Indonesia (which has the world's third-biggest tropical forests, after Brazil and Congo, but the biggest timber trade) estimated its annual losses at around $3 billion. [due to illegal logging]. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
IT as a Supporter for Mitigation efforts § Green Supply Chains and E-Government – Think Global! § Smart Production § End-to-end Accounting (e. g. Life Cycle Analysis, Input/Output Calculations) § De-Materialisation § Smart Buildings – “If airplanes were build like buildings, you wouldn't fly in them”, Stephen Selkowitz”, LBNL § Smart Grids “Although the ICT sector’s own emissions will rise as global demand for products and services increases, these are estimated to be five times less than the emissions that can be reduced through the “enabling effect. ”, Smart 2020 Report 33. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Possible Contributions in Different Fields (Smart 2020 Report) Taken from Smart 2020 Report . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
“Green” Global Supply Chains § “Measure and Connect” is foundation for optimisation – Technologies like • RFID • Event-based Systems • Data-warehouses § § § “Tag and Track” items through whole supply chain “Trash that Thinks” (Saar and Thomas, 2003) Work with (near) real-time data Standardisation (usage of standardised protocols and practices) Integrate with e-Government applications to enhance transparency and better resource and waste management § Check whether suppliers from second and third world countries follow policies § Global optimisation of supply chains (from supplier to production lines to transportation to customer) 35. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Industrial Production § Industrial Production is one of the largest contributors to global emissions (Smart 2020 report): – approx 23% total emission in 2002 – Uses nearly 50% of global electrical power § Modernise development of production lines; software development, simulation, data exchange is outdated compared to “business information systems” § End-to-end monitoring of production lines § ICT systems allow transparency and accountability § Optimisations in motor systems § Integration into global supply-chain optimisation § Be aware of rebound effect(s)! Picture from ralphbijker (flickr) 37. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Impact of “Dematerialisation” § Replace paper-based business with electronic business § Online Media § Reduce business travel § Tele-Working § E-Commerce § E-Government Taken from Smart 2020 Report . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
ICT — Supporting Monitoring & Adaptation . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Degradation of Biodiversity “Devastating declines of amphibian species around the world are a sign of a biodiversity disaster larger than just frogs, salamanders and their ilk, according to researchers from the University of California, Berkeley. ”, Science Daily "There's no question that we are in a mass extinction spasm right now, " said David Wake, professor of integrative biology at UC Berkeley. "Amphibian declines may be the window into the future of what we can expect as humans continue to alter the environment on a global scale. Only now are government officials finally willing to acknowledge that humans have caused so much damage to the environment that they are even affecting global climate change. ” Photo by Adolf Schatten Vredenburg et. Al, 2007 . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Climate Change “The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2. 4°C (1. 4°C to 4. 3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2. 4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1. 4°C to 4. 3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. ” Ramanathan and Feng, "On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, Vol. 105, No. 38 (2008) Photo by h. Adamsky (flickr) . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
ICT Supporting Adaptation § Environmental Information Systems (Biodiversity Research, Sensor Networks, GEOSS, . . . ) § Connected global information systems and models § Low-carbon-intensive technologies: e. g. , more efficiency and search for alternatives (transparent supply chains, dematerialisation of workspaces) § Support in case of catastrophes like – robust dependable and communication technology – Visualisation – Geographical information systems § Simulation and modeling adapted to certain regions e. g. – Tourism prediction in Austria – Water level rise – Development of agriculture 45. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Resilience Allenby, B. , Fink, F. 2005. Toward Inherently Secure and Resilient Societies, Science 309: 1034 -1036 § Our global ICT infrastructure has to be given more consideration § Communication in case of unreliable parts of the infrastructure or attacks § “Economic Crisis” showed global-dependencies leading to “Domino. Effect” § Centralisation vs. De-Centralisation vs. “Local-Pooling” § Dependency Analysis & Management § Mid-Term and Long-Term Benefits over Short-Term (Cost) Benefits § Open Systems vs. Closed Systems § Developing Countries § R&D, and company strategies should target not only performance and price but also resilience Photo by mactent (flickr) 46. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Agenda Information & Communication Technology – Environmental “Footprint” Mitigation ICT supporting Adaptation ICT for Teaching and Public Awareness 47. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Teaching and Public Awareness § Climate change, many environmental problems, resource depletion are – Global issues – Highly connected systems – Depending on many parameters and hence – Very difficult to Understand Communicate § Tools are needed to enhance the understanding of the systemic nature of such problems, particularly for – Teaching purpose – Public awareness – as Political Instrument § IT can provide experience in modeling, visualisation, game development to provide such tools 48. . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Video-Game: “Makes you Think” 49 Taken from http: //makesyouthink. net/games/climate-challenge . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Game: “Operation Climate Control” 50 Taken from http: //www. operationclimatecontrol. co. uk . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Game: “Operation Climate Control” 51 Taken from http: //www. operationclimatecontrol. co. uk . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Conclusion § § § Despite of environmental impact of ICT, clever ICT strategies can help to reduce much more emissions than it will produce ICT Footprint: “direct” front-lines – Efficient IT (Green IT) – Target/Demand oriented IT (Cloud Computing, SAAS, . . . ) – Dematerialisation effects – Resource consumption and treatment of electronic waste “Amplification Effects” by ICT IT as enabler for efficiency measurements in other fields – “Measure and Connect” – “Green Supply Chains”: Global Optimisations, EGovernment – Certified Processes – Smart Houses, Grid Optimisations, Production Automation, . . . ICT supporting Adaptation (sensor networks, environmental monitoring, modelling, search for alternatives. . . ) ICT for “public awareness”, teaching, politics, . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
Dr. Alexander Schatten Senior Researcher: Vienna University of Technology IT Consulting www. schatten. info | alexander@schatten. info | alex_buzz (Twitter) best-practice-software-engineering. blogspot. com Mantra LARGE YET UNEXPLOITED POTENTIAL OF ICT FOR SD ICT PEOPLE WELCOME INTERDISCIPLINARY . . . Institut für Softwaretechnik und Interaktive Systeme
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