Summer School-IGENE, September 06 -11 th, 2010 Lecture 1: Global Environmental Changes and Kyoto protocol Nenad Keča Faculty of Forestry-University of Belgrade
What are climate change?
How we see climate change 1880 year n n n Since 1800 we started to measure (enough accurate) temperature Another 50 year we needed to distribute instruments in all key areas of the world. Virtually all scientists agree that the Earth has warmed some amount since the year 1000
n n n The average temperature of the earth's surface has risen by 0. 74 °C; It is expected to increase by another 1. 8° C to 4° C by the year 2100; The average sea level rose by 10 to 20 cm during the 20 th century, and an additional increase of 18 to 59 cm is expected by the year 2100;
Why climate is changing? n n The principal reason for the mounting thermometer is a century and a half of industrialization: the burning of ever-greater quantities of n n n 1. oil, 2. gasoline, 3. coal, the cutting of forests, and the practice of certain farming methods
What we can expect if climate change? n n Will human beings be threatened in this way? Probably not but are likely to face mounting difficulties. Recent severe storms, floods and droughts, etc. Agricultural yields are expected to drop in most tropical and sub-tropical regions - and in temperate regions too - if the temperature increase is more than a few degrees C. Drying of continental interiors, such as central Asia, the African Sahel, and the Great Plains of the United States, is also forecast. These changes could cause, at a minimum, disruptions in land use and food supply. The current warming trend is expected to cause extinctions. Numerous plant and animal species, already weakened by pollution and loss of habitat, are not expected to survive the next 100 years.
Climate Change Science n n Human activity - particularly the burning of fossil fuels - has made the blanket of greenhouse gases around the earth "thicker. " The resulting increase in global temperatures is altering the complex web of systems that allow life to thrive on earth, such as cloud cover, rainfall, wind patterns, ocean currents, and the distribution of plant and animal species. n The greenhouse effect and the carbon cycle. More of the sun's n Current evidence of climate change. Some consequences of global n Future effects. The complexity of the climate system means predictions vary widely, energy is being trapped in the atmosphere, and much more of the world's carbon (in the form of carbon dioxide) is resting in the air rather than in trees, soil, and subterranean deposits. warming are already apparent. but even the minimum changes forecast could mean frequently flooded coastlines, disruptions to food and water supplies, and the extinction of many species.
What is responsible for CC n n n Systematic following the physical and chemical conditions and energetic balance of atmosphere and atmospheric ozone, during 1970’s showed that climate is strongly influenced by concentration of “glass house gases” CO 2 - Carbon dioxide CH 4 - Methane N 2 O - Nitrous oxide PFCs - Perfluorocarbons HFCs - Hydrofluorocarbons SF 6 - Sulphur hexafluoride as well as for the indrect greenhouse gases such as SO 2, NOx, CO and NMVOC.
n Problem arise not just because of Production and Emission Long retain
n n Greenhouse gases make up only about 1 per cent of the atmosphere, but they act like a blanket around the earth, or like the glass roof of a greenhouse - they trap heat and keep the planet some 30°C warmer than it would be otherwise These changes are happening at unprecedented speed. If emissions continue to grow at current rates, it is almost certain that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide will double from pre-industrial levels during the 21 st century. It is possible they will triple. During 21 st century CO 2 can DOUBLE or TRIPLE? n
Carbon dioxide is responsible for over 60 per cent of the "enhanced greenhouse effect"
n n n Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global rate in the past 100 years. Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer have generally increased since the 1980 s by up to 3°C. In the Alps, some plant species have been migrating upward by 1 to 4 meters/decade, and some plants previously found only on mountain tops have disappeared. In Europe, mating and egg-laying of some bird species has occurred earlier in the season -- in the United Kingdom, for example, egglaying by 20 of 65 species, including long-distance migrants, advanced by an average of eight days between 1971 and 1995. Across Europe, the growing season in controlled, mixed-species gardens lengthened by 10. 8 days from 1959 to 1993. Butterflies, dragonflies, moths, beetles, and other insects are now living at higher latitudes and altitudes, where previously it was too cold to survive.
Variation of the Earth’s surface temperature
Possible changes in temperatures? ! Possible changes in precipitation? !
Sea level rise due to global warming
Even the minimum predicted shifts in climate for the 21 st century are likely to be significant and disruptive. n n n A future of more severe storms and floods along the world's increasingly crowded coastlines is likely, and will be a bad combination. The IPCC also points to very likely increases in the amounts of precipitation in high latitudes, as well as likely precipitation decreases in most sub-tropical land regions. Salt-water intrusion from rising sea levels will reduce the quality and quantity of freshwater supplies. Most of the world's endangered species - some 25 per cent of mammals and 12 per cent of birds - may become extinct Higher temperatures are expected to expand the range of some dangerous "vector-borne" diseases
What Can Be Done n n n Measures -- heavily dependent on teamwork and political will - can slow the rate of global warming and help the world cope with the climate shifts that occur. Reducing emissions; Expanding forests; Changing lifestyles and rules; Coping; Accomplishments to date. . . and problems.
What has been done? n n Over a decade ago, most countries joined an international treaty – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992) Rio, Brasil n In force March 1994, signed by 194 countries and EU n Kyoto Protocol (KP) (1997) Kyoto, Japan n In force Feb. 2005, till Sep. 2006 ratified by 165 countries and EU
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC) n n n Acknowledging that change in the Earth’s climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind, Concerned that human activities have been substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these increases enhance the natural greenhouse effect, and that this will result on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural ecosystems and humankind, Noting that the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow, Aware of the role and importance in terrestrial and marine ecosystems of sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases, Noting that there are many uncertainties in predictions of climate change, particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns thereof, Acknowledging that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions,
n n n n Recognizing that States should enact effective environmental legislation, that environmental standards, management objectives and priorities should reflect the environmental and developmental context, Recognizing that steps required to understand address climate change will be environmentally, socially and economically most effective if they are based on relevant scientific, technical and economic considerations and continually reevaluated in the light of new findings in these areas, Recognizing also the need for developed countries to take immediate action in a flexible manner on the basis of clear priorities, as a first step towards comprehensive response strategies at the global, national and, where agreed, regional levels that take into account all greenhouse gases, with due consideration of their relative contributions to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect, Recognizing further that low-lying and other small island countries, countries with low-lying coastal, arid and semi-arid areas or areas liable to floods, drought and desertification, and developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, Affirming that responses to climate change should be coordinated with social and economic development in an integrated manner with a view to avoiding adverse impacts on the latter, taking into full account the legitimate priority needs of developing countries for the achievement of sustained economic growth and the eradication of poverty, Recognizing that all countries, especially developing countries, need access to resources required to achieve sustainable social and economic development and that, Determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations,
Definitions n n n n n 1. “Adverse effects of climate change” means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socioeconomic systems or on human health and welfare. 2. “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. 3. “Climate system” means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere and their interactions. 4. “Emissions” means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time. 5. “Greenhouse gases” means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation. 6. “Regional economic integration organization” means an organization constituted by sovereign States of a given region which has competence in respect of matters governed by this Convention or its protocols and has been duly authorized, in accordance with its internal procedures, to sign, ratify, accept, approve or accede to the instruments concerned. 7. “Reservoir” means a component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored. 8. “Sink” means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. 9. “Source” means any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
Article 2 OBJECTIVE n The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties (COP) may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
n n n n n Article 3 Principles Article 4. Commitments (a) Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the COP, in accordance with Article 12, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties; (b) Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change; (c) Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion, including transfer, of technologies, practices and processes that control, reduce or prevent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol in all relevant sectors, including the energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management sectors; (d) Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including biomass, forests and oceans as well as other terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems; (e) Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change Article 5. Research and Systematic observation Article 6. Education, Training and Public Awareness
Participant Upon signature: Declaration: Signature Ratification Entry into force "The European Economic Community and its Member States declare, for the Acceptance (A) purposes of clarity, that the inclusion of the European Community as well as its Accession (a) Member States in the lists in the Annexes to the Convention is without prejudice to the division of competence and responsibilities between the Community and its Approval (AA) Member States, which is to be declared in accordance with article 21 (3) of the Succession (d) Convention. " ITALY 5 Jun 1992 15 Apr 1994 14 Jul 1994 Upon approval: Declaration: BOSNIA AND 7 Sep 2000 a 6 Dec 2000 "The European Economic Community and its Member States declare that HERZEGOVINA the commitment to limit anthropogenic CO 2 emissions set out in article 4(2) of the Convention will be fulfilled in the Community as a whole through action by POLAND 5 Jun 1992 28 Jul 1994 26 Oct 1994 the Community and its Member States, within the respective com- petence of each. In this perspective, the Community and its Member States reaffirm the SERBIA 12 Mar 2001 a 10 Jun 2001 objectives set out in the Council conclusions of 29 October 1990, and in particular the objective of stabilization of CO 2 emission by 2000 and 1990 level UNITED KINGDOM OF in the Community as a whole. 12 Jun 1992 8 Dec 1993 21 Mar 1996 GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN The European Economic Community and its Member States are elaborating a IRELAND (6) (7) coherent strategy in order to attain this objective. " Macedonia EU Total ? ? ? 13 Jun 1992 21 Dec 1993 AA 21 Mar 1994 165 Signatories 194 Parties
Annex I Developed countries and countries from central and eastern Europe acceted responsibility for 75% of recent pollution, and 25% is from 100 developing countries n n n n n n n Australia Austria Belarusa Belgium Bulgariaa Canada Croatia* Czech Republica * Denmark European Economic Community Estoniaa Finland France Germany Greece Hungarya Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Latviaa Liechtenstein* Lithuaniaa Luxembourg Monaco* n n n n n Netherlands New Zealand Norway Polanda Portugal Romaniaa Russian Federationa Slovakiaa* Sloveniaa* Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukrainea United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United States of America a Countries that are undergoing the process of transition to a market economy. * Publisher’s note: Countries added to Annex I by an amendment that entered into force
Annex II Developed industrial countries accepted to provide funds for support of developing countries n n n n Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark European Economic Community Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Japan n n n Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United States of America Publisher’s note: Turkey was deleted from Annex II by an amendment that entered into force 28 June 2002, pursuant to decision 26/CP. 7 adopted at COP. 7.
Non –Annex I Party n n Don’t have to reduce amount of GHG emission Among them are Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina Download from http: //data. sfb. rs/nenad. keca
Kyoto Protocol n The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008 -2012.
n n The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so. Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”.
n The Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted at the third session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 3) in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997. In accordance with Article 24, it was open for signature from 16 March 1998 to 15 March 1999 at United Nations Headquarters, New York. By that date the Protocol had received 84 signatures. Pursuant to Article 22, the Protocol is subject to ratification, acceptance, approval or accession by Parties to the UNFCCC that have not signed the Protocol may accede to it at any time. The Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 in accordance with Article 23, that is the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. Currently, there are 192 Parties (191 States and 1 regional economic integration organization) to the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC. The total percentage of Annex I Parties emissions is 63. 7%.
n n n Parties The Convention divides countries into three main groups according to differing commitments: Annex I Parties include the industrialized countries that were members of the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in 1992, plus countries with economies in transition (the EIT Parties), including the Russian Federation, the Baltic States, and several Central and Eastern European States. http: //unfccc. int/parties_and_observers/parties/annex_i/items/2774. php Annex II Parties consist of the OECD members of Annex I, but not the EIT Parties. They are required to provide financial resources to enable developing countries to undertake emissions reduction activities under the Convention and to help them adapt to adverse effects of climate change. In addition, they have to "take all practicable steps" to promote the development and transfer of environmentally friendly technologies to EIT Parties and developing countries. Funding provided by Annex II Parties is channeled mostly through the Convention’s financial mechanism. Non-Annex I Parties are mostly developing countries. Certain groups of developing countries are recognized by the Convention as being especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, including countries with low-lying coastal areas and those prone to desertification and drought. Others (such as countries that rely heavily on income from fossil fuel production and commerce) feel more vulnerable to the potential economic impacts of climate change response measures. The Convention emphasizes activities that promise to answer the special needs and concerns of these vulnerable countries, such as investment, insurance and technology transfer. http: //unfccc. int/parties_and_observers/parties/non_annex_i/items/2833. php The 49 Parties classified as least developed countries (LDCs) by the United Nations are given special consideration under the Convention on account of their limited capacity to respond to climate change and adapt to its adverse effects.
Participant ITALY Signature 29 Apr 1998 16 Feb 2005 16 Apr 2007 a 13 Dec 2002 16 Feb 2005 19 Oct 2007 a 17 Jan 2008 31 May 2002(6) (7) 16 Feb 2005 ? ? ? 29 Apr 1998 31 May 2002 AA 16 Feb 2005 84 Signatories 192 Parties 15 Jul 1998 29 Apr 1998 MACEDONIA EU Total % of emission 15 Jul 2007 SERBIA UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND (6) (7) Entry into force 31 May 2002 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA POLAND Ratification Acceptance (A) Accession (a) Approval (AA) Succession (d) 3. 1%
Anex A n n n n n Greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide (C 02) Methane (CH 4) Nitrous oxide (N 20) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6) Sectors/source categories Energy Fuel combustion Energy industries Manufacturing industries and construction Transport Other sectors Fugitive emissions from fuels Solid fuels Oil and natural gas Other n n n n n n Industrial processes Mineral products Chemical industry Metal production Other production Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Other Solvent and other product use Agriculture Enteric fermentation Manure management Rice cultivation Agricultural soils Prescribed burning of savannas Field burning of agricultural residues Other Waste Solid waste disposal on land Wastewater handling Waste incineration Other
Annex B n n n n n Australia 108 Austria 92 Belgium 92 Bulgaria* 92 Canada 94 Croatia* 95 Czech Republic* 92 Denmark 92 Estonia* 92 European Community 92 Finland 92 France 92 Germany 92 Greece 92 Hungary* 94 Iceland 110 Ireland 92 Italy 92 Japan 94 n n n n n Latvia* 92 Liechtenstein 92 Lithuania* 92 Luxembourg 92 Monaco 92 Netherlands 92 New Zealand 100 Norway 101 Poland* 94 Portugal 92 Romania* 92 Russian Federation* 100 Slovakia* 92 Slovenia* 92 Spain 92 Sweden 92 Switzerland 92 Ukraine* 100 United Kingdom of Britain 92 United States of America 93
n n n n The Mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto mechanisms are: Emissions Trading The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Joint Implementation (JI) The Kyoto mechanisms: Stimulate sustainable development through technology transfer and investment; Help countries with Kyoto commitments to meet their targets by reducing emissions or removing carbon from the atmosphere in other countries in a cost-effective way; Encourage the private sector and developing countries to contribute to emission reduction efforts;
Emissions Trading n n n Parties with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B Parties) have accepted targets for limiting or reducing emissions. These targets are expressed as levels of allowed emissions, or “assigned amounts, ” over the 2008 -2012 commitment period. The allowed emissions are divided into “assigned amount units” (AAUs). Emissions trading, as set out in Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol, allows countries that have emission units to spare - emissions permitted them but not "used" - to sell this excess capacity to countries that are over their targets. Thus, a new commodity was created in the form of emission reductions or removals. Since carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, people speak simply of trading in carbon. Carbon is now tracked and traded like any other commodity. This is known as the "carbon market. "
Other trading units in the carbon market n More than actual emissions units can be traded and sold under the Kyoto Protocol’s emissions trading scheme. The other units which may be transferred under the scheme, each equal to one tone of CO 2, may be in the form of: n n n A removal unit (RMU) on the basis of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities such as reforestation An emission reduction unit (ERU) generated by a joint implementation project A certified emission reduction (CER) generated from a clean development mechanism project activity Transfers and acquisitions of these units are tracked and recorded through the registry systems under the Kyoto Protocol. An international transaction log ensures secure transfer of emission reduction units between countries. The carbon market is a key tool for reducing emissions worldwide. It was worth 30 billion USD in 2006 and is
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) n n n Some facts about C “sink”: Forests, through growth of trees and an increase in soil carbon, contain a large part of the carbon stored on land. Forests present a significant global carbon stock. Global forest vegetation stores 283 Gt of carbon in its biomass, 38 Gt in dead wood and 317 Gt in soils (top 30 cm) and litter. The total carbon content of forest ecosystems has been estimated at 638 Gt for 2005, which is more than the amount of carbon in the entire atmosphere. This standing carbon is combined with a gross terrestrial uptake of carbon, which was estimated at 2. 4 Gt a year, a good deal of which is sequestration by forests. Management and/or conversion of land uses (e. g. forests, croplands and grazing lands) affects sources and sinks of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O. According to the IPCC WGIII (2007), during the decade of the 1990 s, deforestation in the tropics and forest re-growth in temperate and boreal zones remained the major factors contributing to emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHG) respectively. The IPCC WG 1 (2007) reported that estimated CO 2 emissions associated with land-use change, averaged over the 1990 s, were 0. 5 to 2. 7 Gt. C yr– 1, with a central estimate of 1. 6 Gt. Cyr-1.
n n n General mitigation options could include forest-related activities such as reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation, enhancing the sequestration rate in new or existing forests, and using wood fuels and wood products as substitutes for fossil fuels and more energy-intensive materials. A variety of options for mitigation of GHG emissions also exists in other land systems. The most prominent example is agriculture, where options include improved crop and grazing land management (e. g. , improved agronomic practices, nutrient use, tillage and residue management), restoration of organic soils that are drained for crop production, and restoration of degraded lands. However, the main drawback of LULUCF activities is their potential reversibility and non-permanence of carbon stocks as a result of human activities, (with the release of GHG into the atmosphere), disturbances (e. g. forest fires or disease), or environmental change, including climate change.
Issues and agenda item topics relating to LULUCF n n Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries LULUCF under the Convention LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol Harvested Wood Products
Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries n According to the FAO (2005), deforestation, mainly conversion of forests to agricultural land, continues at an alarming rate of approximately 13 million hectares per year (for the period 1990– 2005). Deforestation results in immediate release of the carbon originally stored in the trees as CO 2 emissions (with small amounts of CO and CH 4), particularly if the trees are burned and the slower release of emissions from the decay of organic matter. The IPCC WGIII (2007) estimated emissions from deforestation in the 1990 s to be at 5. 8 Gt. CO 2/yr. The IPCC also notes that reducing and/or preventing deforestation is the mitigation option with the largest and most immediate carbon stock impact in the short term per hectare and per year globally as the release of carbon as emissions into the atmosphere is prevented.
Reporting of the LULUCF sector under the Convention n n Under the Convention, the commitments by Parties to mitigate climate change are defined in Article 4. These commitments take into account Parties’ common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances. Article 4 has references to commitments relating to the land use, land-use change and forestry sector: Article 4, paragraph 1(a): Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the COP, in accordance with Article 12, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases (GHGs)* not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties. (*including inventories of GHG emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector) Article 4, paragraph 1(d): Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including biomass, forests and oceans as well as other terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems. The “Good Practice Guidance for Land use, Land-use Change and Forestry” (IPCC GPG for LULUCF) was adopted by the IPCC Plenary in 2003.
LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol n n n In Article 2, sub-paragraphs 1(a) (ii) and (iii), Annex I Parties, in meeting their emission reduction commitments under Article 3, shall implement and/or further elaborate policies and measures to protect and enhance sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases (GHGs) not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, promote sustainable forest management, afforestation and reforestation and sustainable forms of agriculture. Annex I Parties must report emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs resulting from LULUCF activities, in accordance with Article 3, paragraphs 3 and 4. Under Article 3. 3 of the Kyoto Protocol, Parties decided that net changes in GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks through direct human-induced LULUCF activities, limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation that occurred since 1990, can be used to meet Parties’ emission reduction commitments. Under Article 3. 4 of the Kyoto Protocol, Parties may elect additional human-induced activities related to LULUCF specifically, forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation, to be included in their accounting of anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals for the first commitment period. Upon election, this decision by a Party is fixed for the first commitment period. The changes in carbon stock and GHG emissions relating to LULUCF activities under Article 3, paragraphs 3 and 4 must be reported for each year of the commitment period, beginning with the start of the commitment period, or with the start of the activity, whichever is later. When LULUCF activities under Articles 3. 3 and 3. 4 result in a net removal of GHGs, an Annex I Party can issue removal units (RMUs) on the basis of these activities as part of meeting its commitment under Article 3. 1. In addition, under Article 3, paragraph 7, for the purpose of calculating the assigned amount, an Annex I Party for which land-use change and forestry constituted a net source of GHG emissions in 1990 shall include in their 1990 emissions base year or period the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by sources minus removals by sinks in 1990 from land-use change (according to paragraph 5(b) in the annex to 13/CMP. 1, this refers to: all emissions by sources minus removals by sinks reported in relation to the conversion of forests (deforestation).
Harvested Wood Products n n The carbon cycle is affected when forests are harvested. CO 2 is released during harvesting and manufacture of wood products and by the use and disposal of wood. In the IPCC recommended default approach (Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines), all CO 2 emissions and removals associated with forest harvesting and the oxidation of wood products are accounted for by the country in the year of harvesting (removal). The proposed method recommends that storage of carbon in forest products be included in a national inventory only in the case where a country can document that existing stocks of long term forest products are in fact increasing. Methodologies and good practice for the estimating and reporting of emissions and removals from HWP can be found in Appendix 3 a. 1 in the IPCC good practice guidance for LULUCF (2003).
Cooperation with other organizations n n The emergence of and continuing significance of issues related to LULUCF has stimulated cooperation with many organizations and institutions with forestry and agriculture experiences. The United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF). The UNFF is an intergovernmental process with the objective of promoting the management, conservation and sustainable development of all types of forests. It succeeded a five-year period (1995 -2000) of forest policy dialogue facilitated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests (IPF) and the Intergovernmental Forum on Forests (IFF). The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). For example, the forestry department of FAO has considerable experience in building capacity in developing countries and in assessing the global status of forests. Its work includes the development of definitions and the publication of the Global Forest Resources Assessment as a contribution to knowledge on the state of the world’s forests. The Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF). The CPF is an informal body intended to foster cooperation and coordination among international organizations working on forest issues. Among its initiatives, the CPF has created a task force on streamlining reporting, to explore ways to harmonize and improve reporting on forest issues under different international processes, including the UNFCCC.
Emission Trading System (EU ETS) n n n n In January 2005 the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading System (EU ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading System world-wide. The scheme is based on Directive 2003/87/EC, which entered into force on 25 October 2003. Allowances traded in the EU ETS will not be printed but held in accounts in electronic registries set up by Member States. All of these registries will be overseen by a Central Administrator at EU level who, through the Community independent transaction log, will check each transaction for any irregularities. In this way, the registries system keep track of the ownership of allowances in the same way as a banking system keeps track of the ownership of money.
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) n n The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (KP Article 12) allows a country with an emission-reduction or emission-limitation commitment under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B Party) to implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries. Such projects can earn saleable certified emission A removal unit (RMU) on the basis of land reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO 2, which can be use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) counted towards meeting Kyoto targets. activities such as reforestation The mechanism is seen by many as a trailblazer. It is the first global, An emission reduction unit (ERU) generated environmental investment and credit scheme of its kind, providing a standardized emissions offset instrument, CERs. by a joint implementation project A certified emission A CDM project activity might involve, for example, a rural electrification project using solar panels or the installation of more energy-efficient boilers. reduction (CER) generated from a clean development mechanism project activity The mechanism stimulates sustainable development and emission reductions, while giving industrialized countries some flexibility in how they meet their Transfers and acquisitions of these units are emission reduction or limitation targets. tracked and recorded through the registry systems under the Kyoto Protocol. n Operational since the beginning of 2006, the mechanism has already registered more than 1, 650 projects and is anticipated to produce CERs amounting to more than 2. 9 billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2008– 2012.
Joint Implementation (JI) n n The mechanism known as “joint implementation, ” (KP Art. 6) allows a country with an emission reduction or limitation commitment under Annex B Party to earn emission reduction units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction or emission removal project in another Annex B Party, each equivalent to one tonne of CO 2, which can be counted towards meeting its Kyoto target. Joint implementation offers Parties a flexible and cost -efficient means of fulfilling a part of their Kyoto commitments, while the host Party benefits from foreign investment and technology transfer.
Registry systems under the Kyoto Protocol n n n Emission targets for industrialized country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol are expressed as levels of allowed emissions, or “assigned amounts”, over the 2008 -2012 commitment period. Such assigned amounts are denominated in tonnes (of CO 2 equivalent emissions) known informally as “Kyoto units”. The ability of Parties to add to their holdings of Kyoto units (e. g. through credits for CDM or LULUCF activities) or move units from one country to another (e. g. through emissions trading or JI projects) requires registry systems that can track the location of Kyoto units at all times. Two types of registry are being implemented: Governments of the 38 Annex B Parties are implementing national registries, containing accounts within which units are held in the name of the government or in the name of legal entities authorized by the government to hold and trade units. The UNFCCC secretariat, under the authority of the CDM Executive Board, has implemented the CDM registry for issuing CDM credits and distributing them to national registries. Accounts in the CDM registry are held only by CDM project participants, as the registry does not accept emissions trading between accounts. In addition to recording the holdings of Kyoto units, these registries “settle” emissions trades by delivering units from the accounts of sellers to those of buyers, thus forming the backbone infrastructure for the carbon market.
Kyoto units Unit name AAU Assigned Amount Units RMU Removal Units Issuer Description National registry Units representing the initial assigned amount of each Annex B Party Kyoto Protocol Article 3. 7 National registry Units given for net removals from land use, land-use change and forestry activities Article 3. 3, 3. 4 ERU Emission Reduction Units National registry Units converted from AAUs or RMUs on the basis of JI projects Article 6 CER Certified Emissions Reductions CDM registry Credits given for emission reductions certified for a CDM project Article 12 CDM registry Credits given for emission removals certified for an afforestation or reforestation CDM project (to be replaced upon expiry at end of the second commitment period) Article 12 t. CER l. CER Temporary CERs Long-term CERs CDM registry Credits given for emission removals certified for an A&R CDM project (to be replaced upon expiry at end of the project’s crediting Article 12
Kyoto transaction types Issuance Initial creation of an AAU, RMU, CER, t. CER or l. CER Conversion Transformation of an AAU or RMU into an ERU based on a JI project. External transfer of a unit from one registry to another registry. Cancellation Internal transfer of a unit to a cancellation account, in order that it may not be used for compliance with an emission target. Replacement Internal transfer of a unit to a replacement account, in order to replace t. CERs or l. CERs when required. Retirement Internal transfer of a unit to a retirement account, in order that it can be used by the Annex B Party for compliance with its emission target. Carry-Over Change of validity an AAU, ERU (only those converted from AAUs) or CER from one commitment period to the next. Expiry date change Change in the expiry date of a t. CER or l. CER. Internal transfer between holding accounts Internal transfer of a unit between holding accounts within the same registry (the ITL does not verify such transactions but forwards them to the CITL to allow their verification
Registry Date of initialization passed Date of Live connection with ITL CDM Registry Not applicable 14 November 2007 Australia 19 December 2008 Austria 12 July 2007 16 October 2008 Belgium 7 December 2007 16 October 2008 Bulgaria 10 April 2008 16 October 2008 Croatia 30 April 2009 11 December 2009 Czech Republic 2 August 2007 16 October 2008 Denmark 16 October 2007 16 October 2008 Estonia 12 November 2007 16 October 2008 European Community 1 February 2008 16 October 2008 Finland 16 November 2007 16 October 2008 France 9 November 2007 16 October 2008 Germany 23 November 2007 16 October 2008 Greece 27 September 2007 16 October 2008 Hungary 8 August 2007 11 July 2008 Italy 5 December 2007 16 October 2008
Methodological Issues, Reporting and Review under the Kyoto Protocol n n n n The Kyoto Protocol’s effectiveness will depend upon two critical factors: whether Parties follow the Protocol’s rulebook and comply with their commitments; and whether the emissions data used to assess compliance is reliable. The Protocol’s monitoring procedures are based on existing reporting and review procedures under the Convention, building on experience gained in the climate change process over the past decade. They also involve additional accounting procedures that are needed to track and record Parties’ holdings and transactions of Kyoto Protocol units - assigned amount units (AAUs), certified emission reductions (CERs) and emission reduction units (ERUs) - and removal units (RMUs) generated by LULUCF activities. Articles 5, 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol address reporting and review of information by Annex I Parties under the Protocol, as well as national systems and methodologies for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories. Article 5 commits Annex I Parties to having in place, no later than 2007, national systems for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks (Article 5. 1). It also states that, where agreed methodologies (that is, the revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National GH Inventories. Article 7 requires Annex I Parties to submit annual greenhouse gas inventories, as well as national communications, at regular intervals, both including supplementary information to demonstrate compliance with the Protocol. Article 8 establishes that expert review teams will review the inventories.
Adaptation n n Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is vital in order to reduce the impacts of climate change that are happening now and increase resilience to future impacts. The UNFCCC webpages on adaptation highlight the range of issues that are being addressed by Parties under the various Convention bodies, including Enhanced action on adaptation as part of the Bali Action Plan under the Ad -hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, development and transfer of technologies, research and systematic observation under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) Issues related to implementing, including national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs), and supporting adaptation through finance, technology and capacity-building under the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) Successful adaptation not only depends on governments but also on the active and sustained engagement of stakeholders, including national, regional, multilateral and international organizations, the public and private sectors (private sector initiative), civil society and other relevant stakeholders.
Visible results of KP implementation
http: //maps. unfccc. int/di/map/
Party Italy Japan Australia Quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment (percentage of base year or period level) 93. 5 94. 0 108. 0 Russian 100. 0 Federation Base year for Base year level of total F-gases national emissions as determined by the initial review (tonnes CO 2 equivalent) Source of base year data (initial review reports) 1990 516, 850, 887 FCCC/IRR/2007/ITA 1, 261, 331, 418 FCCC/IRR/2007/JPN 547, 699, 841 FCCC/IRR/2007/AUS 3, 323, 419, 064 FCCC/IRR/2007/RUSS 1995 1990 1995
How is Kyoto progressing
European Climate Change Programme n n n Intended to establish a working-group on forest-related carbon sequestration (sinks) once the rules and procedures for the accounting of carbon credits and debits from different forest types and their management became clear. At COP 7 in November 2001, the definitions, rules and modalities for sinks were agreed, including the activities under Art. 3. 3 of the Kyoto Protocol (afforestation, reforestation and deforestation) as well as (optionally) those under Art. 3. 4, such as forest management. Sink credits gained by activities under Art. 3. 3 are unlimited, while debits can be off-set up to a certain amount by forest management activities under Art. 3. 4. At the same time, credits for Parties under Art. 3. 4 are subject to individual quotas forest management (including Joint Implementation), totalling a maximum of 5. 17 Mt C (approx. 19 Mt CO 2 eq) per year. The working group members identified a number of promising “candidate technical measures” (forestry practices) and assessed their carbon sequestration potential, together with other environmental and socioeconomic effects. In addition, the group also considered a series of policy guidelines and recommendations, and identified a number of EU policy instruments that can be used to promote the candidate technical measures.
Afforestation, reforestation and deforestation n Between 1990 and 2000, afforestation and reforestation activities have extended the total EU forest area of 113 Mha by 340, 000 ha/yr. or 3% , resulting from nearly equal surfaces of planted forests and natural forest expansion. The Group estimates that, if this process continues at the same rate during the present decade, it may result in a sequestration potential of approximately 3. 84 Mt C/yr. (14 Mt CO 2 eq/yr) during the first commitment period. In case of a sustained afforestation trend and taking into account an extended EU of 25 Member States, a technical sequestration potential of 34 Mt C/yr (125 Mt CO 2 eq) may be reached in the long term. n The following ARD activities were considered: n Afforestation programmes; n Natural expansion of forests; n Short rotation tree plantations on former agricultural land; n Deforestation.
Forest management n Forest management measures have an important potential for application as they can cover a much larger area than ARD activities, implying that small GHG benefits per unit area may yield large impacts. For the first commitment period the potential is capped at 5. 17 Mt C (19 Mt CO 2 eq). Very rough IPCC estimates of the quantitative impact of forest management measures indicate a potential for an average gain of 20% in yearly carbon uptake by adapting management, but there is a need for more accurate EU figures. The socio-economic impacts of adapting forest management are expected to be more important than in the case of ARD measures and might therefore require more directed policy support. n The following forest management activities were proposed: n Establishment of forest reserve areas. n Restoration of forest wetlands. n Continuous cover forest management n Prevention of forest fires n Improved management of fast growing plantations in S. Europe
Forests n n n Old-growth forests still take up carbon; Highest carbon uptake in forest converting to natural state (dead wood), along with highest biodiversity; Long-term carbon storage opposes maximum carbon substitution; Carbon losses after clearcut and during establishment of plantations on soil rich in labile carbon may need 10 or more years to be compensated by NEE Forestry on peat/peaty soils is at best climate-neutral (CH 4, N 2 O)
Copenhagen Accord n The Conference of the Parties (COP), at its fifteenth session, took note of the Copenhagen Accord of 18 December 2009 by way of decision 2/CP. 15. The chapeau of the Copenhagen Accord lists the following 114 Parties agreeing to the Accord: Specific information provided by Parties on quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 and on nationally appropriate mitigation actions of developing country Parties can be found here: Information provided by Annex I Parties relating to Appendix I of the Copenhagen Accord http: //unfccc. int/home/items/5264. php (quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020) n The text of the Copenhagen Accord can be found here. n n
Outcome!!! For the first commitment period 2008 -2012, the combined potentially accountable carbon credits for the EU from ARD measures 3. 84 Mt C/yr or 14 Mt CO 2 eq/yr) and Forest management (capped at 5. 17 Mt C/yr or 19 Mt CO 2 eq/yr) would thus be approximately 9 Mt C/yr or 33 Mt CO 2 eq /yr, which is roughly 10 % of the corresponding EU emission reduction target of ca. 337 Mt CO 2 eq /yr. n
Recent events and observations n n n n Russian Federation 1. 5 mill. ha burned in forest fires, about 2000 died, 15 bill. $ damage; Pakistan 6 mill people moved in front of floods, 1600 people died, 6 bill. $ damage; NASA announced this year as warmest in last 131 year period; Great floods all over the world central Europe, China, etc. This was one of the coldest winter in Europe. Recently, volcano Sinabung on Sumatra started with eruption after 400 years; And so on…. WHAT IS NEXT? WHAT WE CAN DO?
n n THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Presentation can be downloaded form http: //data. sfb. rs/nenad. keca
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