Study Meeting on Frontier Technologies and Their Impact

Study Meeting on Frontier Technologies and Their Impact on Asian Economies Seoul, Republic of Korea 9 – 12 September 2008 LC Lee Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) Singapore

Frontier Technologies are scientific discoveries that are at the threshold of being transformed into applications that will result in a quantum improvement to the status quo Frontier technologies are sometimes taken to be synonymous with breakthrough technologies or cutting edge technologies Frontier technologies may refer to emerging fields such as nanotechnology and biotechnology or to specific developments such as carbon nanotubes or thin film solar cells. Innovations which only integrate existing technologies to produce devices with increased functionalities, even if they may have a significant impact in the marketplace, are not usually considered as frontier technologies. 2

Frontier Technologies Salient Characteristics of Frontier Technologies ● Technology novelty must be high ● There should be multipliers in applications ● Relatively lengthy gestations to commercialization ● High risk of failure 3

Frontier Technologies Strategic Technologies ● Nanotechnology ● Biotechnology ● Infocomm Technologies ● Energy ● Aerospace ● Photonics ● Complex Systems 4

Frontier Technologies Conventional vs Disruptive Silicon Wafer CPUs Reel-to-reel Printing Smart Labels 5

Frontier Technologies Smart Technology Initiatives in many Application Areas ome art. H Sm e ffic art. O Sm IRL: Smart. Shop t. Car ar Sm o Sm rt. H a l ita sp 6

Global Competitiveness Index Income Thresholds for Stages of Development Stage of development GDP per capital (US$) Stage 1: Factor-driven <2, 000 Transition from stage 1 to stage 2 2, 000 – 3, 000 Stage 2: Efficiency-driven 3, 000 – 9, 000 Transition from stage 2 to stage 3 9, 000 – 17, 000 Stage 3: Innovation-driven >17, 000 Weighting of sub-indices at each stage of development Basic requirements Efficiency enhancers Innovation and sophistication factors Factor-driven stage 50% 40% 10% Efficiency-driven stage 40% 50% 10% Innovation-driven stage 30% 40% 30% Weight 7

Growth in R&D Intensity (GERD as % of GDP), 1995 - 2005 Source: OECD 8

Global Competitiveness Index Rank Country/Economy ISF Score 1 Switzerland 5. 77 11 Austria 5. 22 2 Japan 5. 70 12 Netherlands 5. 21 3 Germany 5. 70 13 Singapore 5. 14 4 United States 5. 68 14 United Kingdom 5. 10 5 Sweden 5. 62 15 Belgium 5. 09 6 Finland 5. 56 16 France 5. 08 7 Republic of Korea 5. 42 17 Canada 5. 01 8 Denmark 5. 36 18 Norway 4. 89 9 Israel 5. 35 19 Malaysia 4. 83 10 Republic of China 5. 31 20 Iceland 4. 81 Source: World Economic Forum 9

Issues and Challenges National goals and processes Blueprint Budget (public, venture capital, business angels) Infrastructure (universities, science/technology cities/parks, IP agencies) Manpower/culture Technological challenges Technology intelligence, competitive intelligence (TICI) Risk management (alternative technologies, gestation period, commoditisation, environment) Market challenges Market size and reach Business model Branding/commoditisation 10

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint United States Frontier research, innovation, technological infrastructure and an educated population are powerful forces for economic growth and social prosperity To maintain the US position at the forefront of discovery and innovation, the American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI) include a commitment to double investments over ten years in key Federal agencies – including NSF – that supports basic research in the physical sciences and engineering. The five-year strategic plan sets forth a comprehensive agenda on nanoscience and nanotechnology, complex systems, synthesis of new materials with special properties, atom by atom, and study of the earth’s extreme latitudes at scales from the global to the molecular, among others. 11

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint High-Tech Industry 2001 1980 United States European Union United States Others Japan Emerging Asian Economies Source: Council on Competitiveness (US) Others Japan Emerging Asian Economies 12

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint European Community Set up European Research Council as a flagship component of the Seventh Framework Platform for frontier research which is seen as a key driver of wealth and social progress, as it opens new opportunities for scientific advance, and is instrumental in producing new knowledge leading to future applications and markets The European Commission observed that the European industry is increasingly hindered by inadequate technological content, particularly from lack of specialization in high technology sectors, as their share of high-tech industries in manufacturing value added for EU (25) was only 16% compared to 23% for the US The European Technology Platforms serve as vehicles for timely development and deployment of new technologies that offer the potential of radical change in one or more industrial sectors and to provide the necessary technological breakthroughs to remain at the leading edge in high technology sectors that have significant strategic and economic importance. 13

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Japan Innovation 25 Strategy recommends: funding of a diverse base of fundamental scientific research invest in high-risk research projects with potential for significant benefits review current screening processes for innovation including breakthrough technology research develop mechanisms to transfer scientific knowledge so that the benefits can be realized more quickly establish government-initiated stimulation programmes to trigger initial demand for new technologies encourage frontier and cutting edge research. While Japan ranks well in R & D spending, a large part of the investment is in shorter term research for direct outcomes. Comparing the number of citations in patents applications which better reflects fundamental scientific knowledge, Japan fares poorly against the US and EU (15) Another weakness of Japan is in cross-disciplinary fusion of knowledge For fiscal year 2007, NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation) allocated nearly 58% of the budget to medium- to long-term high risk 14 R & D projects.

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Science Citations in US Patents Source: Takayuki Sumita 15

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Republic of Korea Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) initiated two major programmes aimed at bringing ROK into the top seven technologically advanced nations Highly Advanced National (HAN) project launched in 1992 as an inter- ministerial effort to support large-scale and long-term R & D projects. A total of US$3. 2 billion was invested over ten years. An example of a major success was the establishment of the DRAM technology and market. In 1999, the ten-year 21 st Century Frontier R & D Programme was started to support 21 – 22 projects with a budget of US$3. 5 billion. More 75% of the R & D activities are spearheaded by the private sector, which is subjected to market volatility. Notwithstanding the national project, there is imbalance between basic scientific research and technological developments. 16

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Republic of China National Science and Technology Development Plan (2005 – 2008) and White Paper on Science and Technology (2007 – 2010). The Development Plan has “boosting academic research standards, developing distinctive academic fields” as one of six strategies The White Paper listed “cultivating distinguished fields, pursuing academic excellence” as one of seven strategies Both of the masterplans do not appear to place heavy commitment to frontier research or technologies. Major frontier-type of initiatives supported were the genomic medicine national research programme in 2002 and the nanoscience and nanotechnology programme in 2004. Priority is to reach 3% GERD and maintain 4 th rank in US patents granted (except new designs) 17

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Science & Technology Plan 2010 (Singapore) Targets: Increase the Gross Expenditure on R & D (GERD) to 3% (2004 level – 2. 25%) Increase private sector’s share of GERD to two-thirds over the longer term (2004 level – 64%) Increase research manpower to catch up with countries like Sweden and Japan (2004 level – 98 researchers per 10, 000 labour force; Sweden (2003) – 106; Japan (2003) – 101 Source: Science & Technology Plan 2010, Ministry of Trade and Industry, February 2006 18

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Science & Technology Plan 2010 (Singapore) Theme: Sustaining Innovation-Driven Growth Funding: S$13. 55 billion over 5 years (2006 – 2010) S$5 billion to the National Research Foundation (NRF) to fund new growth areas and strategic programmes S$1. 05 billion to Ministry of Education to fund academic, investigator-led research S$7. 5 to billion to Ministry of Trade and Industry to promote economic oriented R&D and related investment promotion activities − S$4. 7 billion for A*STAR research institutes and extramural community such as universities, hospitals and disease centres − S$2. 1 billion to promote private sector R & D − S$0. 45 billion for developing and managing talent through A*STAR scholarships and fellowships − S$0. 25 billion for research infrastructure (including Bio. Polis Fusionopolis) 19

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Increase in R&D Funding S$13. 55 bil S$6 bil Investing in R&D S$4 bil S$2 bil R&D budgets are formulated for 5 -year period 20

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint 2006 National Survey of R&D Total R&D Expenditure as % of GDP Source: A*STAR 21

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint 2006 National Survey of R&D RSEs Per 10 K Labour Force Source: A*STAR 22

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint 2006 National Survey of R&D Private Sector R&D Expenditure as % of Total R&D Expenditure Source: A*STAR 23

R&D Expenditure (2006) R&D Expenditure by Institutional Sector Public Research Institutes 14% Government 10% Higher Education 10% Private 66% R&D Expenditure in 2006: S$5, 010 million (US$3. 7 billion) GERD/GDP in 2006: 2. 39% Source: National Survey of R&D in Singapore 2006 24

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint 2006 National Survey of R&D Distribution of RSEs by Institutional Sector Source: A*STAR 25

National Goals and Processes - Blueprint Research, Innovation and Enterprise Council (RIEC) Chaired by Prime Minister and comprise Cabinet Ministers and distinguished local and foreign members from business, science and technology community. Initiated in 2006. Mission: ● Advises on national research and innovation policies ● Lead drive to promote research, innovation and enterprise Major initiatives (over S$4 billion so far): ● Strategic programmes: Biomedical Sciences Phase II, Environment and Water Technologies, and Interactive and Digital Media ● National Framework for Innovation and Enterprise (NFIE) – encourage Institutes of High Learning to actively engage in innovation and academic entrepreneurship to bring the R & D results from the lab to the market ● Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) – international campus to enhance connectivity to centres of research in the US and Europe, e. g. Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) ● Research Centres of Excellence: Cancer and Earth Observatory ● Competitive Research Programme Funding Scheme and NRF Research Fellowship 26

National Goals and Processes - Infrastructure Role of Universities Research on strategic frontier technologies Training of manpower for R & D Nurturing entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs and start-up companies (funding, incubation, access to resources) Transferring technologies to the industry through technology transfer office (TTO) and private-public partnerships (PPP) Anchoring science and technology cities and parks (technologies, manpower, access to resources) 27

National Goals and Processes – Infrastructure Role of Universities NUS Overseas Colleges Silicon Valley, Philadelphia Shanghai, Stockholm, Bangalore NUS Industry Liaison Office NUS Enterprise NUS Entrepreneurship Centre - NUS Venture Support Fund ($300 K) - NUS Enterprise Incubator Business Units - NUS Extension - NUS Press - NUS Technology Holdings Pte Ltd Corporate Services 28

National Goals and Processes – Infrastructure Science/Technology Cities/Parks Silicon Valley in Northern California is exemplified as an innovator’s Shangri-La Was resilient enough to withstand the disruptive demise of the dot. com era and reinvent itself Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google: “Silicon Valley doesn’t have better ideas and isn’t smarter than the rest of the world but has the edge to filter ideas and execute them. That magic still happens and attracts people from around the world who are bold, ambitious, determined to scale up, and able to raise money here, actually do it” Silicon Valley has proved to be distinctive from its rivals such as Boston’s Route 128 Technology Corridor Silicon Valley is anchored by Stanford University and UC Berkeley while Route 128 is anchored by MIT. 29

National Goals and Processes – Infrastructure Science/Technology Cities/Parks Cyberjaya Japan: Tsukuba and Kansai Science Cities ROK: Daedeok Science City ROC: Hsinchu, Southern Taiwan and Central Taiwan Science Parks Daedeok Science City Singapore: One North Malaysia: Cyberjaya Kansai Science Cities One North Hsinchu Science Park 30

one-north Aerial View of Biopolis & Fusionopolis 60 0 m Biopolis Fusionopolis Phase 1 Fusionopolis Phase 2 A/B 31

Biopolis HELIOS • GSK • RIKEN Office • ES Cell Int’l • Waseda-Olympus Bioscience Research Institute • British High Comm S&T Office CHROMOS • Novartis • REDI Centre MATRIX NANOS • Institute of Bioengineering & Nanotechnology (IBN) • Singapore Tissue Network • • • PROTEOS CENTROS BMRC A*GA EDB BMS Group Bio*One Capital Bioprocessing Technology Institute • Bioinformatics Institute • Exploit Technologies Private Limited Institute of Molecular & Cell Biology GENOME • Genome Institute of Singapore • Singapore Cancer Syndicate • Swiss House • Shared scientific services and resources Shared (e. g. NMR, flow cytometry, x-ray crystallography, glassware washing, media prep) Facilities • Shared facilities and amenities (e. g. lecture theatres, auditorium, F&B outlets, laundry, childcare, shuttle bus) 32

National Goals and Processes - Infrastructure The Intellectual Property Office of Singapore (IPOS) - Selected Milestones 1937 - the Registry of Patents was set up to function as a re-registration authority of UK registered patents. In 1938 and 1939, the UK Designs (Protection) Act and the Trade Marks Act, respectively, were passed 1995 - The Patents Act was passed 1997 - the Registry of Trade Marks and Patents was restructured as the Intellectual Property Office of Singapore (IPOS) 2000 - launch e. Patents to facilitate patent transactions over the internet. Surf. IP introduced to serve as a one-stop search portal of patent database sources. Started IP week to promote public awareness 2001 - IPOS inducted as lead agency for Free Trade Agreement negotiations 2002 - started registration of patent agents. Launched IP Education and Resource Centre (iperc), a training-cum-resource library 2004 - conducted IP camp for primary schools 2006 - launched Patents e-Journal, an on-line publication of patents. Joint initiative with IP Academy and polytechnics on creating IP curriculum for students 33

National Goals and Processes – Education/Culture Tertiary Institutions NUS Entrepreneurship Centre Nanyang Technopreneurship Centre SMU Business Innovation Group Republic Polytechnic Centre for Innovation & Enterprise Ngee Ann Polytechnic Enterprise-Connect@NP 34

National Goals and Processes – Manpower/Culture Education Reform in Schools ● “Thinking Schools, Learning Nation” – mission statement adopted in 1997 ● “Teach Less, Learn More” – less dependence on rote learning, repetitive tests, stronger focus on nurturing a spirit of innovation and enterprise ● Masterplan for IT in Education to provide access to IT for every child ● Curriculum is now more flexible and diverse to provide more broad-based education ● Greater opportunities for teachers to develop professional capabilities and creativity 35

Technology Challenges - TICI Source: Blue Water 36

Technological Challenges – Risk Management Alternative Technologies Source: NREL 37

Technological Challenges – Risk Management Functionality Printed Electronics High Performance E-Paper Smart Labels Product Cost 38

Technological Challenges – Risk Management Lengthy Gestation Period Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) Stronger than steel, as flexible as plastic, can conduct energy better than almost any known material, and can be made from common raw material such as methane gas. Applications: flat panel displays, conductive plastics, energy storage, conductive adhesives and connectors, molecular electronics, thermal materials, structural composites, biomedical applications, etc. 1985 : discovery of fullerenes; that carbon can form stable ordered structures other than graphite and diamond 1990 : fullerene can be produced in a simple arc-evaporated apparatus Mass production challenges only recently overcome Roadblocks to applications: scalability, cost (ranges from US$150 to US$75, 000), toxicity (? ) Commercialised : 2005 Nanomix - hydrogen sensor Eikos - to replace ITO 39

Market Challenges – Market Size and Reach 2005 2004 USA 54, 300 28, 119 Canada 53, 733 81, 373 USA 44, 980 22, 460 Canada 37, 191 16, 656 USA 30, 370 31, 386 Canada 22, 109 20, 479 USA 13, 486 16, 141 Canada 5, 145 2, 266 Fuel Cell Technologies Corp Canada 1, 140 813 USA 1, 040 358 Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd Australia 737 254 Medis Technologies Ltd USA 425 0 Millennium Cell Inc USA 417 198 Canada 241 68 UK 132 0 Palcan Power Systems Canada 107 114 Voller Energy Group Plc UK 78 14 Pacific Fuel Cell Corp USA 52 114 Acta Sp. A Italy 14 0 Alternate Energy Corp USA 0 0 CMR Fuel (US$ Thousands) Location Quest. Air Technologies Inc Gross Revenues Company UK 0 0 ITM Power plc UK 0 0 USA 0 150 265, 697 220, 963 Quantum Fuel Systems Ballard power Systems Inc Distributed Energy Systems Corp Hydrogenics Corp Fuel. Cell Energy Inc Dynetek Industries Ltd Plug Power Inc Poly. Fuel Inc Astris Energi Inc Ceres Power Holdings Plc Source: Price. Waterhouse. Coopers Manhattan Scientifics Inc Total 40

Market Challenges – Market Size and Reach 2005 2004 USA (13, 099) (8, 934) Canada (86, 983) (175, 407) USA (16, 244) (22, 437) Canada (37, 374) (33, 539) USA (68, 186) (86, 443) Canada (2, 020) (954) USA (51, 743) (46, 739) Canada (7, 781) (7, 182) Fuel Cell Technologies Corp Canada (3, 903) (3, 013) USA (7, 943) (8, 967) Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd Australia (12, 978) (11, 111) Medis Technologies Ltd USA (18, 550) (15, 662) Millennium Cell Inc USA (14, 600) (10, 805) Canada (4, 404) (2, 666) UK (4, 923) (2, 892) Palcan Power Systems Canada (819) (1, 479) Voller Energy Group Plc UK (1, 508) (240) Pacific Fuel Cell Corp USA (521) (587) Acta Sp. A Italy (3, 934) (474) Alternate Energy Corp USA (4, 017) (7, 312) CMR Fuel (US$ Thousands) Location Quest. Air Technologies Inc Net Losses Company UK (972) (246) ITM Power plc UK (2, 233) (1, 019) USA (219) (1, 517) (364, 954) (449, 625) Quantum Fuel Systems Ballard power Systems Inc Distributed Energy Systems Corp Hydrogenics Corp Fuel. Cell Energy Inc Dynetek Industries Ltd Plug Power Inc Poly. Fuel Inc Astris Energi Inc Ceres Power Holdings Plc Source: Price. Waterhouse. Coopers Manhattan Scientifics Inc Total 41